海南省区域性暴雨过程综合强度评估方法研究
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摘要
利用1961-2014年海南省逐日降水量资料和4个暴雨过程评估单项指标,采用百分位法建立分项等级评估指标,再分别利用等权重法和百分位法建立区域性暴雨过程综合强度的定量评估模型和确定综合强度等级划分标准。利用该模型对海南省历史上发生的不同等级区域性暴雨过程进行了检验,并对2015年夏、秋季和2016年夏季的9次区域性暴雨过程进行评估应用检验。结果表明:综合考虑区域性暴雨过程的极端强度、持续时间和影响范围等不同指标构建的区域性暴雨过程评估模型,可以较为客观和全面反映海南省区域性暴雨过程的综合强度,并能实现对当地区域性暴雨过程的逐日滚动评估,可较好地满足当地区域性暴雨事件快速、准确评估的业务和服务需求。
Based on the daily precipitation in Hainan Province from 1961 to 2014 and four indicators of the rainstorm process assessment,the quantitative assessment model of regional rainstorm process was established by equal weight method and percentile method.And the percentile method was used to establish the index of grading assessment to determine the integrated intensity classification criteria.The model was applied to test different levels of regional rainstorm processes in the history of Hainan Province.The nine regional rainstorm processes during the summer of 2016 and the summer and autumn of 2015 were also evaluated and tested.The results show that the regional rainstorm process assessment model based on the extreme intensity,duration and influence range can reflect the integrated intensity of the regional rainstorm process in Hainan Province objectively and comprehensively.Daily rolling evaluation of the regional rainstorm process in Hainan Province can also be achieved,which can meet the profession and service needs of a rapid and accurate regional rainstorm event assessment.
Based on the daily precipitation in Hainan Province from 1961 to 2014 and four indicators of the rainstorm process assessment,the quantitative assessment model of regional rainstorm process was established by equal weight method and percentile method.And the percentile method was used to establish the index of grading assessment to determine the integrated intensity classification criteria.The model was applied to test different levels of regional rainstorm processes in the history of Hainan Province.The nine regional rainstorm processes during the summer of 2016 and the summer and autumn of 2015 were also evaluated and tested.The results show that the regional rainstorm process assessment model based on the extreme intensity,duration and influence range can reflect the integrated intensity of the regional rainstorm process in Hainan Province objectively and comprehensively.Daily rolling evaluation of the regional rainstorm process in Hainan Province can also be achieved,which can meet the profession and service needs of a rapid and accurate regional rainstorm event assessment.
引文
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[3]陈刘凤,叶骏菲,林开平,等.桂东北一次典型暴雨过程分析[J].气象研究与应用,2016,37(2):25-29.
[4]苏兆达,赖雨薇,韦覃武,等.一次边界层急流触发的大范围暴雨过程诊断分析[J].气象研究与应用,2015,36(4):53-58+131.
[5]何小娟,丁治英.广西北部湾地区台风暴雨的统计特征[J].气象研究与应用,2007,28(2):31-35+53.
[6]覃卫坚,李耀先,覃志年.广西暴雨的区域性和连续性研究[J].气象研究与应用,2012,33(4):1-4.
[7]李崇银,黄荣辉,丑纪范,等.我国重大高影响天气气候灾害及对策研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2009,51-53.
[8]朱炳海.中国夏季降水强度的分析[J].气象学报,1955,26(4):249-268.
[9]李春梅,刘锦銮,潘蔚娟,等.暴雨综合影响指标及其在灾情评估中的应用[J].广东气象,2008,30(4):1-4.
[10]袭祝香.吉林省重大暴雨过程评估方法研究[J].气象科技,2008,36(1):78-81.
[11]陈艳秋,袁子鹏,盛永,等.辽宁暴雨事件影响的预评估和灾后速评估[J].气象科学,2007,27(6):626-632.
[12]邹燕,叶殿秀,林毅,等.福建省区域性暴雨过程综合强度定量化评估方法[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(3):360-364.
[13]郑国,薛建军,范广洲,等.淮河上游暴雨事件评估模型[J].应用气象学报,2011,22(6):753-759.
[14]袁慧敏,王秀荣,范广州,等.长江中下游沿江地区暴雨过程综合评估模型及应用[J].气象,2012,38(10):1189-1195.
[15]吕晓男,陆允甫,王人潮.土壤肥力综合评价初步研究[J].浙江大学学报,1999,25(4):378-382.
[16]吴岩峻.中国气象灾害大典(海南卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2008:40-120.