广东区域性暴雨过程的定量化评估及气候特征
|
摘要
利用1961—2017年广东86个地面气象观测站逐日降水资料,定义广东区域性暴雨过程的标准,构建了综合考虑区域暴雨过程持续时间、暴雨范围、最大日降水量和最大过程降水量4个指标的广东区域性暴雨过程综合强度评估方法,由此分析近57年广东区域性暴雨过程次数、强度、雨涝年景等特征和变化。结果表明:近57年来,广东共出现1211次区域性暴雨过程,平均每年21. 2次,主要出现在4—9月,单次过程平均持续时间是2. 3 d;广东区域性暴雨过程的次数和强度存在明显的月际、年际和年代际变化,次数最多出现在5月,强度最大出现在6月;广东雨涝年景指数以0.17/(10 a)的速率显著上升;强和较强等级的广东区域性暴雨过程次数呈显著增加趋势,较弱等级区域性暴雨次数呈显著减少趋势。评估得到广东强雨涝年有5年:2008年、2001年、1973年、1994年、1993年,其中有4年出现在1990年以后。
Using daily precipitation data of 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017, the standard of regional heavy rainfall process is defined. Assessment methods on composite intensity of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong are constructed, which take duration, range, maximum daily precipitation and maximum accumulated precipitation during the process into consideration. Characteristics and changes of the frequency, intensity and rain-waterlogging years of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong in recent 57 years are studied. 1211 regional heavy rainfall processes are captured, and the annual average frequency is 21. 2 times, There are obvious interannual and interdecadal variations, the highest frequency occurs in 2016(30 times),and the lowest occurs in 1963(13 times). The annual frequency of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong increases at a rate of 0. 08/(10 a) in recent 57 years,though not quite significant. The regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong mainly occurs from April to September, accounting for 81. 9% in the year, among which 45. 4% processes occur in the first flood season(April—June), and 36. 5% processes occur in the second flood season(July —September). The average duration of single regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong is 2. 3 d, and the longest is 17 d(9-25 June 1968). The average range of a single process covers 20. 3 stations, and the process occurring on 28 January 2016 is observed by the most stations(83). The regional heavy rainfall process with the maximum composite intensity index occurs during 12 —24 June 2005, reaching 1385. 1 mm(Longmen), and this coincides "05. 6" torrential rains and floods in Guangdong. The frequency and strength of the regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong have intermonth, interannual and inter-decade variations, the frequency in May is the highest, and the strength in June is the highest. The annual harvest index of the rain waterlogging in Guangdong increases obviously at a rate of 0. 17/(10 a) in recent 57 years. Regional heavy rainfall processes of relatively strong and strong class increase significantly, while those of relatively weak class decrease obviously in recent 57 years. Evaluation results show that there are five heavy rain waterlogging years, i.e., 2008, 2001,1973, 1994, 1993.
Using daily precipitation data of 86 meteorological stations in Guangdong from 1961 to 2017, the standard of regional heavy rainfall process is defined. Assessment methods on composite intensity of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong are constructed, which take duration, range, maximum daily precipitation and maximum accumulated precipitation during the process into consideration. Characteristics and changes of the frequency, intensity and rain-waterlogging years of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong in recent 57 years are studied. 1211 regional heavy rainfall processes are captured, and the annual average frequency is 21. 2 times, There are obvious interannual and interdecadal variations, the highest frequency occurs in 2016(30 times),and the lowest occurs in 1963(13 times). The annual frequency of regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong increases at a rate of 0. 08/(10 a) in recent 57 years,though not quite significant. The regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong mainly occurs from April to September, accounting for 81. 9% in the year, among which 45. 4% processes occur in the first flood season(April—June), and 36. 5% processes occur in the second flood season(July —September). The average duration of single regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong is 2. 3 d, and the longest is 17 d(9-25 June 1968). The average range of a single process covers 20. 3 stations, and the process occurring on 28 January 2016 is observed by the most stations(83). The regional heavy rainfall process with the maximum composite intensity index occurs during 12 —24 June 2005, reaching 1385. 1 mm(Longmen), and this coincides "05. 6" torrential rains and floods in Guangdong. The frequency and strength of the regional heavy rainfall process in Guangdong have intermonth, interannual and inter-decade variations, the frequency in May is the highest, and the strength in June is the highest. The annual harvest index of the rain waterlogging in Guangdong increases obviously at a rate of 0. 17/(10 a) in recent 57 years. Regional heavy rainfall processes of relatively strong and strong class increase significantly, while those of relatively weak class decrease obviously in recent 57 years. Evaluation results show that there are five heavy rain waterlogging years, i.e., 2008, 2001,1973, 1994, 1993.
引文
[1]何立富,陈涛,孔期.华南暖区暴雨研究进展.应用气象学报,2016,27(5):559-569.
[2]赵玉春,王叶红.近30年华南前汛期暴雨研究概述.暴雨灾害,2009,28(3):193-202; 228.
[3]谢炯光,纪忠萍,谷德军,等.广东省前汛期连续暴雨的气候背景及中期环流特征.应用气象学报,2002,24(2):17-19.
[4]彭丽英,王谦谦,马慧.华南前汛期暴雨气候特征的研究.南京气象学院学报,2006,29(2):249-253.
[5]郑彬,梁建茵,林爱兰,等.华南前汛期的锋面降水和夏季风降水1.划分日期的确定.大气科学,2006,50(6):1207-1216.
[6]张婷,魏凤英.华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征.气象学报,2009,67(3):442-451.
[7]王东海,夏茹娣,刘英.2008年华南前汛期致洪暴雨特征及其对比分析.气象学报,2011,69(1):137-148.
[8]伍红雨,杜尧东,秦鹏.华南暴雨的气候特征及变化.气象,2011,37(10):1262-1269.
[9]伍红雨,杜尧东,陈桢华,等.华南雨日、雨强的气候变化.热带气象学报,2011,27(6):877-888.
[10]张端禹,徐明,汪小康,等.华南前汛期持续暴雨环流特征分析.暴雨灾害,2012,31(3):264-271.
[11]林爱兰,李春晖,郑彬,等.广东前汛期持续性暴雨的变化特征及其环流形势.气象学报,2013,71(4):628-642.
[12]林爱兰,谷德军,郑彬,等.6月广东持续性暴雨过程概念模型的建立.热带气象学报,2015,31(3):289-299.
[13]林爱兰,谷德军,李春晖,等.广东6月持续性暴雨期间的大气环流异常.气象学报,2015,73(5):803-818.
[14]卞洁,李双林,何金海.长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评估.应用气象学报,2011,22(5):604-611.
[15]郑国,薛建军,范广洲,等.淮河上游暴雨事件评估模型.应用气象学报,2011,22(6):753-759.
[16]扈海波,轩春恰,诸立尚.北京地区城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预评估.应用气象学报,2013,24(1):99-108.
[17]甘衍军,徐晶,赵平,等.暴雨致洪预报系统及其评估.应用气象学报,2017,28(4):385-398.
[18]李春梅,刘锦銮,潘蔚娟,等.暴雨综合影响指标及其在灾情评估中的应用.广东气象,2008,30(4):1-4.
[19]罗艳艳,何金海,邹燕,等.华南前汛期雨涝强、弱年的确定及其环流特征对比.气象科学,2015,35(2):160-166.
[20]邹燕,叶殿秀,林毅,等.福建区域性暴雨过程综合强度定量化评估方法.应用气象学报,2014,25(3):360-364.
[21] Hyndman R J,Fan Y N. Sample quantiles in statistical packages. Am Statist,1996,50(4):361-365.
[22]广东省防灾减灾年鉴编写组.广东省防灾减灾年鉴(1994—2016年卷).广州:岭南美术出版社,1995-2017.
[23]宋丽莉.中国气象灾害大典(广东卷).北京:气象出版社,2006.
[24]广东省地方史志编纂委员会编.广东省志(自然灾害志).广州:广东人民出版社,2001.
[25]叶萌,张东,何夏江.“05. 6”广东致洪暴雨过程的预报着眼点.广东气象,2006,28(1):35-38.
[26]何立富,周庆亮,陈涛.“05. 6”华南暴雨中低纬度系统活动及相互作用.应用气象学报,2010,21(4):387-394.
[27]张德苏,刘作挺,梁国锋,等.阳江市2001年6月7到8日连续特大暴雨过程分析.广东气象,2002,24(2):17-19.
[28]李丽平,章开美,王超,等.近40年华南前汛期极端降水时空演变特征.气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):443-450.
[29]李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,等.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势.南京气象学院学报,2012,35(5):570-577.
[30]徐雨晴,苗秋菊,沈永平.2008年:气候持续变暖,极端事件频发.气候变化研究进展,2009,5(1):56-60.
[31]张培群,贾小龙,王永光.2008年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响.气象,2009,35(4):112-116.
[32]王婷,胡娅敏,潘蔚娟.2008年广东“史上最强龙舟水”的气候成因.广东气象,2008,30(4):5-7.
[33]薛纪善.1994年华南夏季特大暴雨研究.北京:气象出版社,1999.
[34]陈超,卢山,任志杰,等.强西南季风背景下1311号台风“尤特”的暴雨特征分析.广东气象,2015,37(2):13-17.
[35]林建,杨贵名.近30年中国暴雨时空特征分析.气象,2014,40(7):816-856.
[2]赵玉春,王叶红.近30年华南前汛期暴雨研究概述.暴雨灾害,2009,28(3):193-202; 228.
[3]谢炯光,纪忠萍,谷德军,等.广东省前汛期连续暴雨的气候背景及中期环流特征.应用气象学报,2002,24(2):17-19.
[4]彭丽英,王谦谦,马慧.华南前汛期暴雨气候特征的研究.南京气象学院学报,2006,29(2):249-253.
[5]郑彬,梁建茵,林爱兰,等.华南前汛期的锋面降水和夏季风降水1.划分日期的确定.大气科学,2006,50(6):1207-1216.
[6]张婷,魏凤英.华南地区汛期极端降水的概率分布特征.气象学报,2009,67(3):442-451.
[7]王东海,夏茹娣,刘英.2008年华南前汛期致洪暴雨特征及其对比分析.气象学报,2011,69(1):137-148.
[8]伍红雨,杜尧东,秦鹏.华南暴雨的气候特征及变化.气象,2011,37(10):1262-1269.
[9]伍红雨,杜尧东,陈桢华,等.华南雨日、雨强的气候变化.热带气象学报,2011,27(6):877-888.
[10]张端禹,徐明,汪小康,等.华南前汛期持续暴雨环流特征分析.暴雨灾害,2012,31(3):264-271.
[11]林爱兰,李春晖,郑彬,等.广东前汛期持续性暴雨的变化特征及其环流形势.气象学报,2013,71(4):628-642.
[12]林爱兰,谷德军,郑彬,等.6月广东持续性暴雨过程概念模型的建立.热带气象学报,2015,31(3):289-299.
[13]林爱兰,谷德军,李春晖,等.广东6月持续性暴雨期间的大气环流异常.气象学报,2015,73(5):803-818.
[14]卞洁,李双林,何金海.长江中下游地区洪涝灾害风险性评估.应用气象学报,2011,22(5):604-611.
[15]郑国,薛建军,范广洲,等.淮河上游暴雨事件评估模型.应用气象学报,2011,22(6):753-759.
[16]扈海波,轩春恰,诸立尚.北京地区城市暴雨积涝灾害风险预评估.应用气象学报,2013,24(1):99-108.
[17]甘衍军,徐晶,赵平,等.暴雨致洪预报系统及其评估.应用气象学报,2017,28(4):385-398.
[18]李春梅,刘锦銮,潘蔚娟,等.暴雨综合影响指标及其在灾情评估中的应用.广东气象,2008,30(4):1-4.
[19]罗艳艳,何金海,邹燕,等.华南前汛期雨涝强、弱年的确定及其环流特征对比.气象科学,2015,35(2):160-166.
[20]邹燕,叶殿秀,林毅,等.福建区域性暴雨过程综合强度定量化评估方法.应用气象学报,2014,25(3):360-364.
[21] Hyndman R J,Fan Y N. Sample quantiles in statistical packages. Am Statist,1996,50(4):361-365.
[22]广东省防灾减灾年鉴编写组.广东省防灾减灾年鉴(1994—2016年卷).广州:岭南美术出版社,1995-2017.
[23]宋丽莉.中国气象灾害大典(广东卷).北京:气象出版社,2006.
[24]广东省地方史志编纂委员会编.广东省志(自然灾害志).广州:广东人民出版社,2001.
[25]叶萌,张东,何夏江.“05. 6”广东致洪暴雨过程的预报着眼点.广东气象,2006,28(1):35-38.
[26]何立富,周庆亮,陈涛.“05. 6”华南暴雨中低纬度系统活动及相互作用.应用气象学报,2010,21(4):387-394.
[27]张德苏,刘作挺,梁国锋,等.阳江市2001年6月7到8日连续特大暴雨过程分析.广东气象,2002,24(2):17-19.
[28]李丽平,章开美,王超,等.近40年华南前汛期极端降水时空演变特征.气候与环境研究,2010,15(4):443-450.
[29]李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,等.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势.南京气象学院学报,2012,35(5):570-577.
[30]徐雨晴,苗秋菊,沈永平.2008年:气候持续变暖,极端事件频发.气候变化研究进展,2009,5(1):56-60.
[31]张培群,贾小龙,王永光.2008年海洋和大气环流异常及对中国气候的影响.气象,2009,35(4):112-116.
[32]王婷,胡娅敏,潘蔚娟.2008年广东“史上最强龙舟水”的气候成因.广东气象,2008,30(4):5-7.
[33]薛纪善.1994年华南夏季特大暴雨研究.北京:气象出版社,1999.
[34]陈超,卢山,任志杰,等.强西南季风背景下1311号台风“尤特”的暴雨特征分析.广东气象,2015,37(2):13-17.
[35]林建,杨贵名.近30年中国暴雨时空特征分析.气象,2014,40(7):816-856.