基于偏振雷达的积层混合云降水增雨潜力识别方法研究
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摘要
本文统计分析了北京地区近三年的有效降水,重点研究了积层混合云降水特点并对其分类,发现积层混合云降水出现频次约占总降水次数的61%,其中积层混合云降水以积层连结型和水平混合型为主,二者之和占近80%。重点分析了积层混合云中对流和层云两种不同特点降水类型的宏微观结构,确立了反射率因子Z、温度T、粒子含水量M、催化剂AgI(碘化银)活化率NE和粒子相态HTC(hydrometeor type classification)为人工增雨潜力识别指标及这些识别指标的取值范围,同时也根据研究现状和人工影响天气需求总结制定出人工增雨潜力等级。利用偏振雷达构建模糊逻辑识别算法对积层混合云三种降水类型进行增雨潜力区域识别研究,结果表明:(1)对于播撒碘化银增雨来说,积层混合云的增雨潜力区在垂直方向上可分为上、中、下三层,上层(增雨等级为"不适合")和下层(零度层及以下)分别受含水量和温度等影响不适合增雨,中间层(增雨等级大于等于"等级一")是可增雨区域;(2)积层混合云中层云区增雨潜力较小,对流云区可增雨潜力要远大于层云区,开式流场型与积层连结型可增雨潜力要大于水平混合型;(3)当降水云中识别出霰粒子时,其附近的大部分区域会有较好的增雨潜力。通过偏振雷达实例检验和数值模式模拟在积层混合云不同部位播撒碘化银催化试验发现,在增雨潜力较好的区域催化有很明显增雨效果,模拟试验结论与偏振雷达识别增雨潜力区结果也基本一致,说明基于偏振雷达的增雨潜力区识别方法和结果是具有参考意义的。
Statistical analysis on effective precipitation enhancement in Beijing area over the past three years was conducted. Characteristics and classification of convective–stratiform mixed clouds were also studied in this paper. Results show that the frequency of mixed clouds precipitation accounted for 61% of the total frequency. Convective–stratiform connected type and horizontally mixed type are the main types of mixed clouds precipitation and the two types of precipitation account for 80% of the total. This study mainly analyzed the macro-and micro-physical structures of convective clouds and stratus clouds in convective–stratiform mixed clouds. Identification indexes, including the reflectivity factor Z, temperature T, particle water content M, AgI nucleation efficiency(NE), hydrometeor type classification(HTC), and their ranges were determined. Levels of rain enhancement potential were established based on the research situation and weather modification demands. Fuzzy models and algorithms based on polarimetric radar data were established to identify regions of rain enhancement potential for convective–stratiform precipitation. The results show that three layers in the vertical(upper, middle, and lower) could be found in the rain enhancement potential area. Both the upper and lower layers are not suitable for artificial rain enhancement because of the influence of water content and temperature. Thereby only the middle layer is fit for artificial rain enhancement. It was also found that the stratus clouds in the mixed clouds have a small rain enhancement potential, whereas the convection clouds have a large potential. Of different types, the open airflow type and convective–stratiform connected type have a higher potential for artificial rain enhancement than the horizontally mixed type. Furthermore, when graupels are detected by radar, the nearby areas will have a large potential for artificial rain enhancement. Cloud seeding with Ag I in different layers was simulated using a numerical model. The result of the numerical model is basically consistent with the result of radar detection. This indicates that the identification method based on polarimetric radar has great implication for assessing artificial rain enhancement potential.
Statistical analysis on effective precipitation enhancement in Beijing area over the past three years was conducted. Characteristics and classification of convective–stratiform mixed clouds were also studied in this paper. Results show that the frequency of mixed clouds precipitation accounted for 61% of the total frequency. Convective–stratiform connected type and horizontally mixed type are the main types of mixed clouds precipitation and the two types of precipitation account for 80% of the total. This study mainly analyzed the macro-and micro-physical structures of convective clouds and stratus clouds in convective–stratiform mixed clouds. Identification indexes, including the reflectivity factor Z, temperature T, particle water content M, AgI nucleation efficiency(NE), hydrometeor type classification(HTC), and their ranges were determined. Levels of rain enhancement potential were established based on the research situation and weather modification demands. Fuzzy models and algorithms based on polarimetric radar data were established to identify regions of rain enhancement potential for convective–stratiform precipitation. The results show that three layers in the vertical(upper, middle, and lower) could be found in the rain enhancement potential area. Both the upper and lower layers are not suitable for artificial rain enhancement because of the influence of water content and temperature. Thereby only the middle layer is fit for artificial rain enhancement. It was also found that the stratus clouds in the mixed clouds have a small rain enhancement potential, whereas the convection clouds have a large potential. Of different types, the open airflow type and convective–stratiform connected type have a higher potential for artificial rain enhancement than the horizontally mixed type. Furthermore, when graupels are detected by radar, the nearby areas will have a large potential for artificial rain enhancement. Cloud seeding with Ag I in different layers was simulated using a numerical model. The result of the numerical model is basically consistent with the result of radar detection. This indicates that the identification method based on polarimetric radar has great implication for assessing artificial rain enhancement potential.
引文
毕永恒,刘锦丽,段树,等.2012.X波段双线偏振气象雷达反射率的衰减订正[J].大气科学,36(3):495-506.Bi Yongheng,Liu Jinli,Duan Shu,et al.2012.Attenuation correction of reflectivity for X-band dual-polarization radar[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),36(3):495-506,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11075.
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陈羿辰,刘锦丽,段树,等.2012.X波段双极化雷达在北京夏季降水估测中的应用[J].气候与环境研究,17(3):292-302.Chen Yichen,Liu Jinli,Duan Shu,et al.2012.Application of X-band dual polarization radar in precipitation estimation in summer of Beijing[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),17(3):292-302,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.10115.
陈羿辰,张龙斌,金永利,等.2016.利用双线偏振雷达分析人工防雹作业效果[J].气象科技,44(3):479-488.Chen Yichen,Zhang Longbin,Jin Yongli,et al.2016.A case study of effectiveness of artificial hail suppression based on dual polarization radar data[J].Meteor.Sci.Technol.,44(3):479-488,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2016.03.022.
Greene D R,Clark R A.1972.Vertically integrated liquid water-A new analysis tool[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,100(7):548-552,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0548:VILWNA>2.3.CO;2.
洪延超,周非非.2006.层状云系人工增雨潜力评估研究[J].大气科学,30(5):913-926.Hong Yanchao,Zhou Feifei.2006.The study of evaluation of potential of artificial precipitation enhancement in stratiform cloud system[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),30(5):913-926,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.05.20.
胡志晋.2001.层状云人工增雨机制、条件和方法的探讨[J].应用气象学报,12(增刊):10-13.Hu Zhijin.2001.Discussion on mechanisms,conditions and methods of precipitation enhancement in stratiform clouds[J].Quart.J.Appl.Meteor.(in Chinese),12(S):10-13,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2001.z1.002.
黄美元,洪延超.1984.在梅雨锋云系内层状云回波结构及其降水的不均匀性[J].气象学报,42(1):80-87.Huang Meiyuan,Hong Yanchao.1984.The inhomogeneous features of the precipitation and the echo structure of stratiform cloud in Meiyu frontal cloud system[J].Acta Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),42(1):80-87,doi:10.11676/qxxb1984.008.
黄美元,洪延超,徐华英,等.1987a.层状云对积云发展和降水的影响--一种云与云之间影响的数值模拟[J].气象学报,45(1):72-77.Huang Meiyuan,Hong Yanchao,Xu Huaying,et al.1987a.The effects of the existence of stratiform cloud on the development of cumulus cloud and its precipitation[J].Acta Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),45(1):72-77,doi:10.11676/qxxb1987.009.
黄美元,洪延超,吴玉霞,等.1987b.梅雨锋云系和降水的若干研究[J].大气科学,11(1):23-30.Huang Meiyuan,Hong Yanchao,Wu Yuxia,et al.1987b.Some studies on Meiyu frontal cloud system and its precipitation[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(Scientia Atmospherica Sinica)(in Chinese),11(1):23-30,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1987.01.03.
黄燕,徐华英.1994.播撒碘化银粒子进行人工防雹的数值试验[J].大气科学,18(5):612-622.Huang Yan,Xu Huaying.1994.Numerical experiments on hail suppression by Ag I seeding[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(Scientia Atmospherica Sinica)(in Chinese),18(5):612-622,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1994.05.12.
雷恒池,魏重,沈志来,等.2001.微波辐射计探测降雨前水汽和云液水[J].应用气象学报,12(增刊):73-79.Lei Hengchi,Wei Chong,Shen Zhilai,et al.2001.Microwave radiometric measurement on water vapor and cloud liquid water before rainfall[J].Quart.J.Appl.Meteor.(in Chinese),12(S):73-79,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2001.z1.010.
林磊,姚展予.2011.华北地区一次积层混合云降水的数值模拟研究[J].气象,37(12):1473-1480.Lin Lei,Yao Zhanyu.2011.Numerical study on the complex of the stratiform clouds and embedded convective clouds of North China[J].Meteor.Mon.(in Chinese),37(12):1473-1480.
唐仁茂,李德俊,袁正腾,等.2012.对流云人工增雨雷达效果分析软件的应用[J].气候与环境研究,17(6):871-883.Tang Renmao,Li Dejun,Yuan Zhengteng,et al.2012.Application of seeding effect analysis software for convective cloud rainfall enhancement with radar products[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),17(6):871-883,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.06.24.
汪学林,谷淑芳,于勇.等.2001.两次江淮气旋的云雨特征及其人工播云效果的综合分析[J].应用气象学报,12(增刊):48-57.Wang Xuelin,Gu Shufen,Yu Yong,et al.2001.Two case studies of characteristics of rains and clouds over Jianghuai cyclone and the composite analysis of artificial seeding effectiveness[J].Quart.J.Appl.Meteor.(in Chinese),12(S):48-57,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2001.z1.007.
王以琳,刘文,王广河.2002.冷云人工增雨催化区的探空判据[J].气象学报,60(1):116-121.Wang Yilin,Liu Wen,Wang Guanghe.2002.Sounding criterion of cold cloud catalysis[J].Acta Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),60(1):116-121,doi:10.11676/qxxb2002.014.
吴志会,段英,张晶,等.2005.不同降水天气系统自然降水特征及火箭人工增雨潜力分析[J].气象科技,33(增刊):14-20.Wu Zhihui,Duan Ying,Zhang Jing,et al.2005.Characteristics of natural precipitation under various weather systems in different seasons and potential of rocket rainfall enhancement[J].Meteor.Sci.Technol.(in Chinese),33(S):14-20.
肖卉,白卡娃,王可法,等.2008.江苏省火箭人工增雨作业指标研究[J].气象科学,28(4):440-443.Xiao Hui,Bai Kawa,Wang Kefa,et al.2008.A study on some operation indices of artificial precipitation over Jiangsu Province[J].Scientia Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),28(4):440-443,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2008.04.015.
Marshall J S,Palmer W M.1948.The distribution of raindrops with size[J].Journal of Meteorology.,5(4):165-166.
Reisner J,Rasmussen R M,Bruintjes R T.1998.Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale model[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,124(548):1071-1107,doi:10.1002/qj.49712454804.
Vardiman L,Moore J A.1978.Generalized criteria for seeding winter orographic clouds[J].J.Appl.Meteor.,17(12):1769-1777,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1978)017<1769:GCFSWO>2.0.CO;2.
Chappell C F,Johnson F L.1974.Potential for snow augmentation in cold orographic clouds[J].J.Appl.Meteor.,13(3):374-382,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1974)013<0374:PFSAIC>2.0.CO;2.
陈羿辰,刘锦丽,段树,等.2012.X波段双极化雷达在北京夏季降水估测中的应用[J].气候与环境研究,17(3):292-302.Chen Yichen,Liu Jinli,Duan Shu,et al.2012.Application of X-band dual polarization radar in precipitation estimation in summer of Beijing[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),17(3):292-302,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.10115.
陈羿辰,张龙斌,金永利,等.2016.利用双线偏振雷达分析人工防雹作业效果[J].气象科技,44(3):479-488.Chen Yichen,Zhang Longbin,Jin Yongli,et al.2016.A case study of effectiveness of artificial hail suppression based on dual polarization radar data[J].Meteor.Sci.Technol.,44(3):479-488,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2016.03.022.
Greene D R,Clark R A.1972.Vertically integrated liquid water-A new analysis tool[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,100(7):548-552,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0548:VILWNA>2.3.CO;2.
洪延超,周非非.2006.层状云系人工增雨潜力评估研究[J].大气科学,30(5):913-926.Hong Yanchao,Zhou Feifei.2006.The study of evaluation of potential of artificial precipitation enhancement in stratiform cloud system[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),30(5):913-926,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.05.20.
胡志晋.2001.层状云人工增雨机制、条件和方法的探讨[J].应用气象学报,12(增刊):10-13.Hu Zhijin.2001.Discussion on mechanisms,conditions and methods of precipitation enhancement in stratiform clouds[J].Quart.J.Appl.Meteor.(in Chinese),12(S):10-13,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2001.z1.002.
黄美元,洪延超.1984.在梅雨锋云系内层状云回波结构及其降水的不均匀性[J].气象学报,42(1):80-87.Huang Meiyuan,Hong Yanchao.1984.The inhomogeneous features of the precipitation and the echo structure of stratiform cloud in Meiyu frontal cloud system[J].Acta Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),42(1):80-87,doi:10.11676/qxxb1984.008.
黄美元,洪延超,徐华英,等.1987a.层状云对积云发展和降水的影响--一种云与云之间影响的数值模拟[J].气象学报,45(1):72-77.Huang Meiyuan,Hong Yanchao,Xu Huaying,et al.1987a.The effects of the existence of stratiform cloud on the development of cumulus cloud and its precipitation[J].Acta Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),45(1):72-77,doi:10.11676/qxxb1987.009.
黄美元,洪延超,吴玉霞,等.1987b.梅雨锋云系和降水的若干研究[J].大气科学,11(1):23-30.Huang Meiyuan,Hong Yanchao,Wu Yuxia,et al.1987b.Some studies on Meiyu frontal cloud system and its precipitation[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(Scientia Atmospherica Sinica)(in Chinese),11(1):23-30,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1987.01.03.
黄燕,徐华英.1994.播撒碘化银粒子进行人工防雹的数值试验[J].大气科学,18(5):612-622.Huang Yan,Xu Huaying.1994.Numerical experiments on hail suppression by Ag I seeding[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(Scientia Atmospherica Sinica)(in Chinese),18(5):612-622,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1994.05.12.
雷恒池,魏重,沈志来,等.2001.微波辐射计探测降雨前水汽和云液水[J].应用气象学报,12(增刊):73-79.Lei Hengchi,Wei Chong,Shen Zhilai,et al.2001.Microwave radiometric measurement on water vapor and cloud liquid water before rainfall[J].Quart.J.Appl.Meteor.(in Chinese),12(S):73-79,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2001.z1.010.
林磊,姚展予.2011.华北地区一次积层混合云降水的数值模拟研究[J].气象,37(12):1473-1480.Lin Lei,Yao Zhanyu.2011.Numerical study on the complex of the stratiform clouds and embedded convective clouds of North China[J].Meteor.Mon.(in Chinese),37(12):1473-1480.
唐仁茂,李德俊,袁正腾,等.2012.对流云人工增雨雷达效果分析软件的应用[J].气候与环境研究,17(6):871-883.Tang Renmao,Li Dejun,Yuan Zhengteng,et al.2012.Application of seeding effect analysis software for convective cloud rainfall enhancement with radar products[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),17(6):871-883,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2012.06.24.
汪学林,谷淑芳,于勇.等.2001.两次江淮气旋的云雨特征及其人工播云效果的综合分析[J].应用气象学报,12(增刊):48-57.Wang Xuelin,Gu Shufen,Yu Yong,et al.2001.Two case studies of characteristics of rains and clouds over Jianghuai cyclone and the composite analysis of artificial seeding effectiveness[J].Quart.J.Appl.Meteor.(in Chinese),12(S):48-57,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7313.2001.z1.007.
王以琳,刘文,王广河.2002.冷云人工增雨催化区的探空判据[J].气象学报,60(1):116-121.Wang Yilin,Liu Wen,Wang Guanghe.2002.Sounding criterion of cold cloud catalysis[J].Acta Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),60(1):116-121,doi:10.11676/qxxb2002.014.
吴志会,段英,张晶,等.2005.不同降水天气系统自然降水特征及火箭人工增雨潜力分析[J].气象科技,33(增刊):14-20.Wu Zhihui,Duan Ying,Zhang Jing,et al.2005.Characteristics of natural precipitation under various weather systems in different seasons and potential of rocket rainfall enhancement[J].Meteor.Sci.Technol.(in Chinese),33(S):14-20.
肖卉,白卡娃,王可法,等.2008.江苏省火箭人工增雨作业指标研究[J].气象科学,28(4):440-443.Xiao Hui,Bai Kawa,Wang Kefa,et al.2008.A study on some operation indices of artificial precipitation over Jiangsu Province[J].Scientia Meteor.Sinica(in Chinese),28(4):440-443,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-0827.2008.04.015.
Marshall J S,Palmer W M.1948.The distribution of raindrops with size[J].Journal of Meteorology.,5(4):165-166.
Reisner J,Rasmussen R M,Bruintjes R T.1998.Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale model[J].Quart.J.Roy.Meteor.Soc.,124(548):1071-1107,doi:10.1002/qj.49712454804.
Vardiman L,Moore J A.1978.Generalized criteria for seeding winter orographic clouds[J].J.Appl.Meteor.,17(12):1769-1777,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1978)017<1769:GCFSWO>2.0.CO;2.