基于频率组合的区间流域设计洪水计算方法
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摘要
从上下游断面洪水频率组合计算的角度,提出一种计算区间流域设计洪水的新方法。以清江水布垭-隔河岩区间流域(水-隔区间)为例,采用统计参数法、离散求和法、基于Copula函数的概率组合法(Copula-PC法)和基于Copula函数的蒙特卡罗法(Copula-MC法),分别推求水-隔区间最大3d洪量的频率曲线及设计值,并与传统方法进行比较。结果表明,频率组合思路合理可行,统计参数法和离散求和法计算的结果系统偏小,会低估下游断面的防洪风险,频率组合计算时推荐采用Copula-PC法和Copula-MC法。
A new design flood estimation method for interval basin is proposed from the aspect of frequency combination of floods occurred at relevant upstream and downstream sites. Taking the Shuibuya-Geheyan interval basin in Qingjiang Basin as case study,the frequency curves and design values of maximum 3 d flood volume for Shuibuya-Geheyan interval basin are derived by using statistical parameter method,discrete summation method,probabilistic combination method based on Copulas( Copula-PC) and Monte Carlo method based on Copulas( Copula-MC) respectively,and then the results are compared with those of traditional method. The comparison result show that the frequency combination approach is reasonable and feasible,the results of statistical parameter method and discrete summation method are systematically smaller, thus may lead to underestimation of flood control risks. The Copula-PC and Copula-MC methods are recommended in frequency combination calculation.
A new design flood estimation method for interval basin is proposed from the aspect of frequency combination of floods occurred at relevant upstream and downstream sites. Taking the Shuibuya-Geheyan interval basin in Qingjiang Basin as case study,the frequency curves and design values of maximum 3 d flood volume for Shuibuya-Geheyan interval basin are derived by using statistical parameter method,discrete summation method,probabilistic combination method based on Copulas( Copula-PC) and Monte Carlo method based on Copulas( Copula-MC) respectively,and then the results are compared with those of traditional method. The comparison result show that the frequency combination approach is reasonable and feasible,the results of statistical parameter method and discrete summation method are systematically smaller, thus may lead to underestimation of flood control risks. The Copula-PC and Copula-MC methods are recommended in frequency combination calculation.
引文
[1]郭生练,刘章君,熊立华.设计洪水计算方法研究进展与评价[J].水利学报,2016,47(3):302-314.
[2]周祥林,燕文明.混联型梯级水库群的典型洪水地区组成[J].水力发电,2016,42(11):91-94.
[3]谭乔凤,雷晓辉,王浩,等.考虑梯级水库库容补偿和设计洪水不确定性的汛限水位动态控制域研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2017,49(1):60-69.
[4]水利部长江水利委员会水文局,水利部南京水文水资源研究所.水利水电工程设计洪水计算手册[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2001.
[5]SL 44—2006水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范[S].
[6]金光炎.一个计算组合频率的新方法[J].中国水利,1958(4):46-52.
[7]王锐琛,陈源泽,孙汉贤.梯级水库下游洪水概率分布的计算方法[J].水文,1990(1):1-8.
[8]肖义,郭生练,熊立华,等.一种新的洪水过程随机模拟方法研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2007,39(2):55-60.
[9]张超,胡志根,刘全.上游水电站控泄条件下施工导流风险分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(11):1328-1333.
[10]刘章君,郭生练,胡瑶,等.基于Copula-Monte Carlo法的水库下游洪水概率分布研究[J].水力发电,2015,41(8):17-22.
[11]李天元,郭生练,刘章君,等.梯级水库下游设计洪水计算方法研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(6):641-648.
[12]郭生练,闫宝伟,肖义,等.Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展[J].水文,2008,28(3):1-7.
[13]史黎翔,宋松柏.基于Copula函数的两变量洪水重现期与设计值计算研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(10):27-34.
[14]冯平,李新.基于Copula函数的非一致性洪水峰量联合分析[J].水利学报,2013,44(10):1137-1147.
[15]刘和昌,梁忠民,姚轶,等.基于Copula函数的水文变量条件组合分析[J].水力发电,2014,40(5):13-16.
[16]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验,长江勘测规划设计研究院,长江水利委员会水文局.隔河岩水库汛限水位设计与运用[R].武汉:武汉大学,2010.
[2]周祥林,燕文明.混联型梯级水库群的典型洪水地区组成[J].水力发电,2016,42(11):91-94.
[3]谭乔凤,雷晓辉,王浩,等.考虑梯级水库库容补偿和设计洪水不确定性的汛限水位动态控制域研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2017,49(1):60-69.
[4]水利部长江水利委员会水文局,水利部南京水文水资源研究所.水利水电工程设计洪水计算手册[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2001.
[5]SL 44—2006水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范[S].
[6]金光炎.一个计算组合频率的新方法[J].中国水利,1958(4):46-52.
[7]王锐琛,陈源泽,孙汉贤.梯级水库下游洪水概率分布的计算方法[J].水文,1990(1):1-8.
[8]肖义,郭生练,熊立华,等.一种新的洪水过程随机模拟方法研究[J].四川大学学报:工程科学版,2007,39(2):55-60.
[9]张超,胡志根,刘全.上游水电站控泄条件下施工导流风险分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(11):1328-1333.
[10]刘章君,郭生练,胡瑶,等.基于Copula-Monte Carlo法的水库下游洪水概率分布研究[J].水力发电,2015,41(8):17-22.
[11]李天元,郭生练,刘章君,等.梯级水库下游设计洪水计算方法研究[J].水利学报,2014,45(6):641-648.
[12]郭生练,闫宝伟,肖义,等.Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展[J].水文,2008,28(3):1-7.
[13]史黎翔,宋松柏.基于Copula函数的两变量洪水重现期与设计值计算研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(10):27-34.
[14]冯平,李新.基于Copula函数的非一致性洪水峰量联合分析[J].水利学报,2013,44(10):1137-1147.
[15]刘和昌,梁忠民,姚轶,等.基于Copula函数的水文变量条件组合分析[J].水力发电,2014,40(5):13-16.
[16]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验,长江勘测规划设计研究院,长江水利委员会水文局.隔河岩水库汛限水位设计与运用[R].武汉:武汉大学,2010.