阳南沟隧道出口边坡安全风险分析
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摘要
公路边坡一旦失稳可能对人类生命、财产、经济活动造成重大损失,开展边坡安全风险评估一直以来都是工程建设中的一项重要工作。以湖北省十堰至白河公路阳南沟隧道出口边坡为例,采用Monte Carlo模拟方法得到了正常工况和非正常工况Ⅰ条件下边坡的稳定性系数和破坏概率,并针对边坡影响范围内的承灾体进行易损性分析,从而得出边坡可能的经济损失价值和人口伤亡状况。结果表明,阳南沟隧道出口边坡在正常工况条件下的风险等级为Ⅰ级,在非正常工况Ⅰ条件下的风险等级为Ⅱ级、中度。根据风险接受准则,该边坡在正常工况条件下风险较小,处于接受范围之内;在非正常工况Ⅰ条件下风险次之,应予以监测,尤其在施工过程和不利自然条件下更应加强边坡变形情况监测。
Road slope instability is likely to cause significant losses of human life,property,and economic activities;therefore the slope safety risk assessment is an important task in the engineering construction.In this paper,the slope at the outlet of Yangnangou tunnel on the road between Shiyan and Baihe of Hubei Province was investigated using the Monte Carlo simulation to obtain its stability coefficient and probability to failure under the conditions of normal and abnormal conditions.Additionally,the vulnerability for the hazard-affected body within the impacted area was analyzed,which can provide the possible economic losses and population casualties through the risk calculation formula.The results showed that the level of risk of the slope at the Yangnangou tunnel exit under the normal working conditions is class I,while the level of risk under the abnormal working conditions is class II.According to the risk acceptance criteria,this slope had less risk under the normal working conditions and the risk was within the acceptable range.This slope had higher risk under the abnormal working conditions;therefore the deformation of the slope needs to be monitored,especially under the construction process and adverse natural conditions.
Road slope instability is likely to cause significant losses of human life,property,and economic activities;therefore the slope safety risk assessment is an important task in the engineering construction.In this paper,the slope at the outlet of Yangnangou tunnel on the road between Shiyan and Baihe of Hubei Province was investigated using the Monte Carlo simulation to obtain its stability coefficient and probability to failure under the conditions of normal and abnormal conditions.Additionally,the vulnerability for the hazard-affected body within the impacted area was analyzed,which can provide the possible economic losses and population casualties through the risk calculation formula.The results showed that the level of risk of the slope at the Yangnangou tunnel exit under the normal working conditions is class I,while the level of risk under the abnormal working conditions is class II.According to the risk acceptance criteria,this slope had less risk under the normal working conditions and the risk was within the acceptable range.This slope had higher risk under the abnormal working conditions;therefore the deformation of the slope needs to be monitored,especially under the construction process and adverse natural conditions.
引文
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[16]向喜琼,黄润秋.地质灾害风险评价与风险管理[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2003,11(1):38-41.(XIANG Xi-qiong,HUANG Run-qiu.Risk Assessment and Risk Mangement for Slope Geohazards[J].Journal of Geologlcal Hazards and Environ-ment Preservation,2003,11(1):38-41.(in Chinese))
[2]马寅生,张业成,张春山,等.地质灾害风险评估的理论与方法[J].地质力学学报,2004,10(1):7-18.(MA Yin-sheng,ZHANG Ye-cheng,ZHANG Chun-shan,et al.Theory and Ap-proaches to the Risk Evaluation of Geological Hazards[J].Journal of Geomechanics.2004,10(1):7-18.(in Chinese))
[3]王开凤,张谢东,王小璜,等.大规模山区高速公路施工危险源水文地质与工程地质辨识与风险控制[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2009,33(6):1096-1099.(WANG Kai-feng,ZHANG Xie-dong,WANG Xiao-huang,et al.Hazard Identification and Risk Control in Freeway Construction of Large Scale Mountainous Region[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Transportation Science&Engineering),2009,33(6):1096-1099.(in Chinese))
[4]张勇慧,李红旭,盛谦,等.山区公路岩质边坡危险源安全性评价研究[J].公路,2010,(2):55-59.(ZHANG Yong-hui,LI Hong-xu,SHENG Qian,et al.A Study on Safety Assessment of Rock Slope Hazard of Mountain Highway[J].Highway,2010,(2):55-59.(in Chinese))
[5]张业成,张梁.论地质灾害风险评价[J].地质灾害与环境保护,1996,7(3):1-6.(ZHANG Ye-cheng,ZHANG Liang.On Risk E-valuation of Geological Hazards[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Environment Preservation,1996,7(3):1-6.(in Chinese))
[6]罗文强,黄润秋,张倬元.斜坡稳定性概率分析的理论与应用[M].武汉:中国地质大学出版社,2003.(LUO Wen-qiang,HUANG Run-qiu,ZHANG Zhuo-yuan.Theory and Method to the Probability Analysis of Slope Stability[M].China University of Geosciences Press,2003.(in Chinese))
[7]黄超,王水林.基于不平衡推力法的边坡可靠度分析[J].岩土力学,2007,28(增刊):613-615.(HUANG Chao,WANG Shuilin.Slope′s Reliability Analysis Based on Imbalance Thrust Force Method[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2007,41(Suup.):613-615.(in Chinese))
[8]彭振斌,李俊,彭文祥.基于Bishop条分法的边坡可靠度应用研究[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2010,41(2):668-672.(PENG Zhen-bin,LI Jun,PENG Wen-xiang.Application Anal-ysis of Slope Reliability Based on Bishop Analytical Method[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technol-ogy),2010,41(2):668-672.(in Chinese))
[9]鲁涛.三峡库首区某滑坡变形特征及影响因素分析[J].水电能源科学,2011,29(8):106-108.(LU Tao.Deformation Charac-teristics and Influencing Factors Analysis of Landslide in Head Region of Three Gorges Reservoir[J].Water Resources andPower,2011,29(8):106-108.(in Chinese))
[10]陈丽霞,殷坤龙,汪洋.单体滑坡灾害风险预测[J].自然灾害学报,2008,17(2):65-70.(CHEN Li-xia,YIN Kun-long,WANG Yang.Discussion on Risk Prediction for Single Land-slide[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2008,17(2):65-70.(in Chinese))
[11]刘鑫,陈奇,吴树仁,等.陕西陇县李家下滑坡风险评价[J].地质通报,2008,27(6):895-903.(LIU Xing,CHEN Qi,WU Shu-ren,et al.Risk Assessment of the Lijiaxia Landslide in Longxian County,Shanxi,China[J].Geological Bulletin of China,2008,27(6):895-903.(in Chinese))
[12]陈红旗,张若琳.单体滑坡灾害风险简易评价研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2010,21(12):45-48.(CHEN Hong-qi,ZHANG Ruo-lin.Study on Simple Assessment of Monomer Landslide Risk[J].Journal of Geological Hazards and Envi-ronment Preservation,2010,21(12):45-48.(in Chinese))
[13]吴越,刘东升,陆新,等.单体滑坡灾害财产风险定量评估模型[J].岩土力学,2010,31(增刊2):342-248.(WU Yue,LIU Dong-sheng,LU Xin,et al.A Quantitative Assessment Model for Property Risk Caused by Single Landslide[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2010,31(2):342-348.(in Chinese))
[14]陈红旗,张若琳.单体滑坡灾害风险简易评价研究[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2010,21(1):45-48.(CHEN Hong-qi,ZHANG Ruo-lin.Study on Simple Assessment of Monomer Landslide Risk[J].Journal of Geologlcal Hazards and Environment Preservation,2010,21(1):45-48.(in Chinese))
[15]中华人民共和国交通运输部.公路桥梁与隧道工程安全风险评估指南[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2011.Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China.Safety risk assessment guidelines for Road bridge and tunnel engineering[S].China Communications Press.(in Chinese))
[16]向喜琼,黄润秋.地质灾害风险评价与风险管理[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2003,11(1):38-41.(XIANG Xi-qiong,HUANG Run-qiu.Risk Assessment and Risk Mangement for Slope Geohazards[J].Journal of Geologlcal Hazards and Environ-ment Preservation,2003,11(1):38-41.(in Chinese))