半马尔可夫跃迁历程下装备复杂系统多状态可靠性分析与评估
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摘要
开展多态装备复杂系统可靠性建模、分析与评估研究,对于降低装备研制风险、优化保障系统建设、提升装备使用效能,具有重要作用。常规多态系统可靠性分析与评估体系,局限于马尔可夫指数分布状态跃迁历程假设,建模精度与解算可信度受限。突破指数分布技术瓶颈问题,构建半马尔可夫跃迁历程下多态系统可靠性建模、分析与评估体系,并针对船用机电耦合多态发电系统,实现新体系下可靠性建模、分析与评估的典型案例研究。研究表明,新体系可改善机、电类元器件强耦合复杂系统结构的多态可靠性刻画精度,有效规避系统的设计风险和使用风险;有助于实现装备配套保障系统建设的优化决策目标;对于装备系统设计人员与使用人员,具有重要的理论分析价值与工程应用价值。
Developing the reliability modeling,analysis and assessment technology with respect to multistate complex equipment system plays an important role for reducing risk in development,optimizing construction of support system,and improving efficiency in use.The regular reliability analysis and assessment system use Markov processes to deconstruct multi-state transition.However,the modeling subjects to limitations on precision and credibility.Breaking the exponential distribution hypothesis,a new system to model,analyse and assess multi-state reliability using semi-Markov processes is established and applied to assess multi-state reliability about the strong electromechanical coupling marine generator.Research shows that the new solution system can effectively promote assessment precision and data credibility for multi-state complex technical system with the characteristic of strong electromechanical coupling,can effectively avoid risks during the design and the usage phases,and can make more rational decisions for the support system.Moreover,the results have an important value in theoretical analysis and engineering application for the designers and the users.
Developing the reliability modeling,analysis and assessment technology with respect to multistate complex equipment system plays an important role for reducing risk in development,optimizing construction of support system,and improving efficiency in use.The regular reliability analysis and assessment system use Markov processes to deconstruct multi-state transition.However,the modeling subjects to limitations on precision and credibility.Breaking the exponential distribution hypothesis,a new system to model,analyse and assess multi-state reliability using semi-Markov processes is established and applied to assess multi-state reliability about the strong electromechanical coupling marine generator.Research shows that the new solution system can effectively promote assessment precision and data credibility for multi-state complex technical system with the characteristic of strong electromechanical coupling,can effectively avoid risks during the design and the usage phases,and can make more rational decisions for the support system.Moreover,the results have an important value in theoretical analysis and engineering application for the designers and the users.
引文
[1]ANATOLY L,ILIA F,YI D.Multi-state system reliability analysis and optimization for engineers and industrial managers[M].London:Springer Press,2010.
[2]KRZYSZTOF K,JOANNA S B.Reliability and safety of complex technical systems and processes[M].London:Springer Press,2011.
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[12]宋月,刘三阳,冯海林.相邻k/n(F)多状态可修系统的可靠性分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(2):310-312.SONG Y,LIU S Y,FENG H L.Reliability analysis of consecutive k-out-of-n:F repairable systems with multi-state component[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2006,28(2):310-312.
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[16]LEVITIN G.The universal generating function in reliability analysis and optimization[M].London:Springer,2005.
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[18]LEVITIN G.Allocation of test times in multi-state system for reliability growth testing[J].IIE Transactions,2002,34(2):551-558.
[19]LEVITIN G,XING L.Reliability and performance of multisate system with propagated failures having selective effect[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2010,95(10):655-661.
[20]李春洋,陈循,易晓山.基于向量通用生成函数的多性能参数多态系统可靠性分析[J].兵工学报,2010,31(12):1604-1610.LI C Y,CHEN X,YI X S.Reliability analysis of multi-state system with multiple performance parameters based on vectoruniversal generating function[J].Acta Armamentarii,2010,31(12):1604-1610.
[21]LI Y F,ZIO E.A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generating system via universal generating function[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2012,106(12):28-36.
[22]史跃东,陈砚桥,金家善.舰船装备多状态可修复系统可靠性通用生成函数解算方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2016,38(9):2215-2220.SHI Y D,CHEN Y Q,JIN J S.Reliability analysis for warship armament multi-state repairable system based on universal generating function method[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2016,38(9):2215-2220.
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[24]ZIO E,MARELLA M,PODOFILLINI L.A Monte Carlo simulation approach to the availability assessment of multi-state system with operational dependencies[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2007,92(7):871-882.
[25]RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J E,COIT D.A Monte Carlo simulation approach for approximating multi-state two-terminal reliability[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2005,87(4):253-264.
[26]樊鹤红,张明德,孙小菡.多工作状态环形光网络的可靠性评估[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2005,35(5):673-677.FAN H H,ZHANG M D,SUN X H.Reliability evaluation of ring network with multiple working-states[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2005,35(5):673-677.
[27]原菊梅,侯朝祯,高琳,等.粗糙Petri网及其在多状态系统可靠性估计中的应用[J].兵工学报,2007,28(11):1373-1376.YUAN J M,HOU C Z,GAO L,et al.Rough petri net and its application in multi-state system reliability estimate[J].Acta Armamenterii,2007,28(11):1373-1376.
[28]周金宇,谢里阳,王学敏.多状态系统共因失效分析及可靠性模型[J].机械工程学报,2005,41(6):66-70.ZHOU J Y,XIE L Y,WANG X M.Analysis for common cause failure and reliability model in multi-state systems[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2005,41(6):66-70.
[29]周金宇,谢里阳.多状态系统共因失效机理与定量分析[J].机械工程学报,2008,44(10):77-82.ZHOU J Y,XIE L Y.Common cause failure mechanism and risk probability quantitative estimation of multi-state systems[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2008,44(10):77-82.
[30]SOROI W,NOURELFATH M,AIT-KADI D.Performance evaluation of multi-state degradable systems with minimal repairs and imperfect preventive maintenance[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2010,95(2):65-69.
[31]DING Y,LISNIANSKI A,Frenkel I,et al.Optimal corrective maintenance contract planning for aging multi-state system[J].Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry,2009,25(5):612-631.
[32]DING Y,LISNIANSKI A.Fuzzy universal generating functions for multi-state system reliability assessment[J].Fussy Sets and Systems,2008,159(3):307-324.
[33]DING Y,ZUO M J,LISNIANSKI A,et al.Fuzzy multistate systems:general definitions,and performance assessment[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2008,57(4):589-594.
[34]鄢民强,杨波,王展.不完全覆盖的模糊多状态系统可靠性计算方法[J].西安交通大学学报,2011,45(10):109-114.YAN M Q,YANG B,WANG Z.Reliability assessment for multistate system subject to imperfect fault coverage[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong university,2011,45(10):109-114.
[35]史跃东,金家善,徐一帆,等.基于发生函数的模糊多状态复杂系统可靠性通用评估方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2018,40(1):238-244.SHI Y D,JIN J S,XU Y F,et al.Universal reliability assessment method for fuzzy multi-state complex technical system based on generating function[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2018,40(1):238-244.
[36]BARBU V S,LIMNIOS N.Semi-Markov chains and hidden semi-Markov models toward applications[M].London:Springer Press,2008.
[37]JANSSEN J,MANCA R.Applied semi-Markov processes[M].London:Springer Press,2006.
[38]JANSSEN J,LIMNIOS N.Semi-Markov models and applications[M].Amsterdam:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1999.
[39]LIMNIOS N,OPRISAN G.Semi-Markov processes and reliability[M].London:Springer Press,2001.
[40]JANSSEN J,MANCA R.Semi-Markov risk models for finance,insurance and reliability[M].London:Springer Press,2007.
[41]OURANIA C,NIKOLAOS L,SONIA M.Multi-state reliability systems under discrete time semi-Markovian hypothesis[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2011,60(1):80-87.
[42]尚彦龙,蔡琦,赵新文,等.基于UGF和Semi-Markov方法的反应堆泵机组多状态可靠性分析[J].核动力工程,2012,33(1):117-123.SHANG Y L,CAI Q,ZHAO X W,et al.Multi-state reliability for pump group in nuclear power system based on UGF and semi-Markov process[J].Nuclear Power Engineering,2012,33(1):117-123.
[43]WANG J,LI M.Redundancy allocation optimization for multistate systems with failure interactions using semi-Markov process[J].Journal of Mechanical Design,Transactions of the ASME,2015,137(10):42-52.
[44]LISNIANSKI A.Combined generating function and semi-Markov process technique for multi-state system reliability evaluation[C]∥Proc.of the 4th IEEE International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability,2004:21-25.
[45]STROOCK D W.An introduction to Markov processes[M].London:Springer Press,2014.
[2]KRZYSZTOF K,JOANNA S B.Reliability and safety of complex technical systems and processes[M].London:Springer Press,2011.
[3]AMARI S V,XING L,SHRETHA A,et al.Performability analysis of multi-state computing systems using multivalued decision diagram[J].IEEE Trans.on Computers,2010,59(10):1419-1433.
[4]XING L,DAI Y S.A new decision-diagram-based method for efficient analysis on multi-state systems[J].IEEE Trans.on Dependable and Secure Computing,2009,6(3):161-174.
[5]SHRETHA A,XING L,DAI Y S.Decision diagram based methods and complexity analysis for multi-state systems[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2010,59(1):145-161.
[6]钱文学,尹晓伟,谢里阳.多状态机械系统可靠性的离散化建模方法[J].东北大学学报,2008,29(11):1609-1612.QIAN W X,YIN X W,XIE L Y.Discretized modeling process of reliability of multi-state mechanical systems[J].Journal of Northeastern University,2008,29(11):1609-1612.
[7]周忠生,马超群,周经伦,等.基于贝叶斯网络的多态故障树分析方法[J].数学的实践与认识,2008,38(19):89-95.ZHOU Z B,MA C Q,ZHOU J L,et al.Multi-state fault tree analysis method based on Bayesian networks[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2008,38(19):89-95.
[8]尹晓伟,钱文学,谢里阳.基于贝叶斯网络的多状态系统可靠性建模与评估[J].机械工程学报,2009,45(2):206-212.YIN X W,QIAN W X,XIE L Y.Multi-state system reliability modeling and assessment based on Bayesian networks[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2009,45(2):206-212.
[9]YAMANOTO H,ZUO M J,AKIBAT,et al.Recursive formulas for the reliability of multi-state consecutive-k-out-ofn:G systems[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2006,55(1):98-104.
[10]武月琴,周泓,官建成.一类多状态系统的可靠性计算[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2007,33(8):968-971.WU Y Q,ZHOU H,GUAN J C.Reliability estimation of a multi-state system[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2007,33(8):968-971.
[11]TIAN Z G,RICHARD C,ZUO M J,et al.Reliability bounds for multi-state k-out-of-nsystems[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2008,57(1):53-58.
[12]宋月,刘三阳,冯海林.相邻k/n(F)多状态可修系统的可靠性分析[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(2):310-312.SONG Y,LIU S Y,FENG H L.Reliability analysis of consecutive k-out-of-n:F repairable systems with multi-state component[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2006,28(2):310-312.
[13]宋月,刘三阳,冯海林.n中取相邻n-1好的多状态可修系统的可靠性分析[J].西安电子科技大学学报(自然科学版),2005,32(6):965-967.SONG Y,LIU S Y,FENG H L.Reliability analysis of consecutive n-1-out-of-n:G repairable systems with the multistate component[J].Journal of Xidian University,2005,32(6):965-967.
[14]FRENKEL I,KHVATSKIN L,LISNIANSKI A.Markov reward model for performance deficicency calculation of refrigeration system[C]∥Proc.of the Safety and Reliability Conference,2010:82-96.
[15]LIU Y W,KAPUR K C.Reliability measures for dynamic multistate nonrepairable systems and their applications to system performance evaluation[J].IIE Transactions,2006,38(6):511-520.
[16]LEVITIN G.The universal generating function in reliability analysis and optimization[M].London:Springer,2005.
[17]ZHOU J,XIE L.Generating function approach to reliability analysis of structural system[J].Science in China Series E:Technological Sciences,2009,52(10):2849-2858.
[18]LEVITIN G.Allocation of test times in multi-state system for reliability growth testing[J].IIE Transactions,2002,34(2):551-558.
[19]LEVITIN G,XING L.Reliability and performance of multisate system with propagated failures having selective effect[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2010,95(10):655-661.
[20]李春洋,陈循,易晓山.基于向量通用生成函数的多性能参数多态系统可靠性分析[J].兵工学报,2010,31(12):1604-1610.LI C Y,CHEN X,YI X S.Reliability analysis of multi-state system with multiple performance parameters based on vectoruniversal generating function[J].Acta Armamentarii,2010,31(12):1604-1610.
[21]LI Y F,ZIO E.A multi-state model for the reliability assessment of a distributed generating system via universal generating function[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2012,106(12):28-36.
[22]史跃东,陈砚桥,金家善.舰船装备多状态可修复系统可靠性通用生成函数解算方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2016,38(9):2215-2220.SHI Y D,CHEN Y Q,JIN J S.Reliability analysis for warship armament multi-state repairable system based on universal generating function method[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2016,38(9):2215-2220.
[23]ZIO E,PODOFILLINI L,LEVITIN G.Estimation of the importance measures of multi-sate elements by Monte Carlo simulation[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2004,86(3):191-204.
[24]ZIO E,MARELLA M,PODOFILLINI L.A Monte Carlo simulation approach to the availability assessment of multi-state system with operational dependencies[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2007,92(7):871-882.
[25]RAMIREZ-MARQUEZ J E,COIT D.A Monte Carlo simulation approach for approximating multi-state two-terminal reliability[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2005,87(4):253-264.
[26]樊鹤红,张明德,孙小菡.多工作状态环形光网络的可靠性评估[J].东南大学学报(自然科学版),2005,35(5):673-677.FAN H H,ZHANG M D,SUN X H.Reliability evaluation of ring network with multiple working-states[J].Journal of Southeast University(Natural Science Edition),2005,35(5):673-677.
[27]原菊梅,侯朝祯,高琳,等.粗糙Petri网及其在多状态系统可靠性估计中的应用[J].兵工学报,2007,28(11):1373-1376.YUAN J M,HOU C Z,GAO L,et al.Rough petri net and its application in multi-state system reliability estimate[J].Acta Armamenterii,2007,28(11):1373-1376.
[28]周金宇,谢里阳,王学敏.多状态系统共因失效分析及可靠性模型[J].机械工程学报,2005,41(6):66-70.ZHOU J Y,XIE L Y,WANG X M.Analysis for common cause failure and reliability model in multi-state systems[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2005,41(6):66-70.
[29]周金宇,谢里阳.多状态系统共因失效机理与定量分析[J].机械工程学报,2008,44(10):77-82.ZHOU J Y,XIE L Y.Common cause failure mechanism and risk probability quantitative estimation of multi-state systems[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2008,44(10):77-82.
[30]SOROI W,NOURELFATH M,AIT-KADI D.Performance evaluation of multi-state degradable systems with minimal repairs and imperfect preventive maintenance[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2010,95(2):65-69.
[31]DING Y,LISNIANSKI A,Frenkel I,et al.Optimal corrective maintenance contract planning for aging multi-state system[J].Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry,2009,25(5):612-631.
[32]DING Y,LISNIANSKI A.Fuzzy universal generating functions for multi-state system reliability assessment[J].Fussy Sets and Systems,2008,159(3):307-324.
[33]DING Y,ZUO M J,LISNIANSKI A,et al.Fuzzy multistate systems:general definitions,and performance assessment[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2008,57(4):589-594.
[34]鄢民强,杨波,王展.不完全覆盖的模糊多状态系统可靠性计算方法[J].西安交通大学学报,2011,45(10):109-114.YAN M Q,YANG B,WANG Z.Reliability assessment for multistate system subject to imperfect fault coverage[J].Journal of Xi’an Jiaotong university,2011,45(10):109-114.
[35]史跃东,金家善,徐一帆,等.基于发生函数的模糊多状态复杂系统可靠性通用评估方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2018,40(1):238-244.SHI Y D,JIN J S,XU Y F,et al.Universal reliability assessment method for fuzzy multi-state complex technical system based on generating function[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2018,40(1):238-244.
[36]BARBU V S,LIMNIOS N.Semi-Markov chains and hidden semi-Markov models toward applications[M].London:Springer Press,2008.
[37]JANSSEN J,MANCA R.Applied semi-Markov processes[M].London:Springer Press,2006.
[38]JANSSEN J,LIMNIOS N.Semi-Markov models and applications[M].Amsterdam:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1999.
[39]LIMNIOS N,OPRISAN G.Semi-Markov processes and reliability[M].London:Springer Press,2001.
[40]JANSSEN J,MANCA R.Semi-Markov risk models for finance,insurance and reliability[M].London:Springer Press,2007.
[41]OURANIA C,NIKOLAOS L,SONIA M.Multi-state reliability systems under discrete time semi-Markovian hypothesis[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2011,60(1):80-87.
[42]尚彦龙,蔡琦,赵新文,等.基于UGF和Semi-Markov方法的反应堆泵机组多状态可靠性分析[J].核动力工程,2012,33(1):117-123.SHANG Y L,CAI Q,ZHAO X W,et al.Multi-state reliability for pump group in nuclear power system based on UGF and semi-Markov process[J].Nuclear Power Engineering,2012,33(1):117-123.
[43]WANG J,LI M.Redundancy allocation optimization for multistate systems with failure interactions using semi-Markov process[J].Journal of Mechanical Design,Transactions of the ASME,2015,137(10):42-52.
[44]LISNIANSKI A.Combined generating function and semi-Markov process technique for multi-state system reliability evaluation[C]∥Proc.of the 4th IEEE International Conference on Mathematical Methods in Reliability,2004:21-25.
[45]STROOCK D W.An introduction to Markov processes[M].London:Springer Press,2014.