未来5a华北地区小麦生育期降水量变化趋势分析
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摘要
根据北京、天津、太原、石家庄近60 a冬小麦生育期降水量数据,综合运用多年趋势线、3 a滑动平均值法、Hurst指数法、M-K突变分析法,对该地区冬小麦生育期降水量进行分析,同时使用加权马尔可夫链对降水量进行预测,目的是了解华北地区冬小麦生育期自然降水的变化趋势,并对未来降水进行预测。结果表明,近60 a来,冬小麦生育期降水量略呈下降趋势,且各站点差异较大,下降幅度从高到低排序为天津>北京>太原>石家庄。Hurst指数均大于0.5且都接近0.5,表明各站点未来降水变化均具有持续性,但持续性不强。通过M-K突变分析可知,降水突变年份可能出现在20世纪七八十年代,但近年来各地区生育期降水量基本上均呈下降趋势。构建了马尔可夫链降水预测模型,预测精度都在20%以内,完全符合预测标准。比较预测的未来5 a的降水量与之前年份的降水量发现,未来华北地区冬小麦生产区生育期降水量均呈下降趋势,但下降持续性不强。
To understand the trend of natural precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat in North China and predict future precipitation,according to the precipitation data of winter wheat growth period in Beijing,Tianjin,Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang in the past 60 years,the multi-year trend line,3-year sliding average method,Hurst index method and M-K mutation analysis method were comprehensively applied,precipitation was predicted using a weighted Markov chain.The results showed that in the past 60 years,the precipitation of winter wheat growth period had a slight downward trend,and the difference between the stations was large,the order of decline range from high to low was Tianjin>Beijing>Taiyuan>Shijiazhuang.The Hurst index was greater than 0.5 and both were close to 0.5,indicating that the future precipitation changes of each site were persistent,but the persistence was not strong.According to the M-K mutation analysis,the precipitation year might appear in the 1970 s and 1980 s,but in recent years,the precipitation during the growth period had basically declined.On the other hand,the Markov chain precipitation prediction model was constructed,and the prediction accuracy was within 20%,which fully met the prediction criteria.Comparing the predicted precipitation in the next 5 years with the previous annual precipitation,it was found that the precipitation in the winter wheat production area in North China had a downward trend,but the decline was not strong.
To understand the trend of natural precipitation during the growth period of winter wheat in North China and predict future precipitation,according to the precipitation data of winter wheat growth period in Beijing,Tianjin,Taiyuan and Shijiazhuang in the past 60 years,the multi-year trend line,3-year sliding average method,Hurst index method and M-K mutation analysis method were comprehensively applied,precipitation was predicted using a weighted Markov chain.The results showed that in the past 60 years,the precipitation of winter wheat growth period had a slight downward trend,and the difference between the stations was large,the order of decline range from high to low was Tianjin>Beijing>Taiyuan>Shijiazhuang.The Hurst index was greater than 0.5 and both were close to 0.5,indicating that the future precipitation changes of each site were persistent,but the persistence was not strong.According to the M-K mutation analysis,the precipitation year might appear in the 1970 s and 1980 s,but in recent years,the precipitation during the growth period had basically declined.On the other hand,the Markov chain precipitation prediction model was constructed,and the prediction accuracy was within 20%,which fully met the prediction criteria.Comparing the predicted precipitation in the next 5 years with the previous annual precipitation,it was found that the precipitation in the winter wheat production area in North China had a downward trend,but the decline was not strong.
引文
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[20]张杰,陶望雄,王青.加权马尔可夫链在济南市降水量预测中的应用[J].人民黄河,2016,32(9):13-16.
[2]王秋兰,靳鲲鹏,曹晋军.大气CO2浓度升高对玉米叶片光合生理指标及其产量的影响[J].山西农业科学,2018,46(12):2051-2053.
[3]胡晓雪,杜维俊,杨珍平,等.大气CO2浓度和气温升高对野生大豆光合作用的影响[J].山西农业科学,2015,43(7):798-801,853.
[4]胡亚南,李阔,许吟隆.1951-2010年华北平原农业气象灾害特征分析及粮食减产风险评估[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(2):197-203.
[5]于振文.作物栽培学各论[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2013:124-126.
[6]张宇,王石立,王馥棠.气候变化对我国小麦发育及产量可能影响的模拟研究[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):264-270.
[7]马柱国,符淙斌.1951-2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实[J].科学通报,2006,51(20):2429-2439.
[8]WANG H J.The weakening of the Asian monsoon circulation after the end of 1970s[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2001,18(3):376-386.
[9]周秀骥,赵平,刘舸,等.中世纪暖期、小冰期与现代东亚夏季风环流和降水年代-百年尺度变化特征分析[J].科学通报,2011,56(25):2060-2067.
[10]ZHAI P M,ZHANG X B,WAN H,et al.Trends in total precipitation and frequency of daily precipitation extremes over China[J].JClimate,2005,18(7):1096-1108.
[11]戴新刚,汪萍,丑纪范.华北汛期降水多尺度特征与夏季风年代际衰变[J].科学通报,2003,48(23):2483-2487.
[12]房世波,齐月,韩国军,等.1961-2010年中国主要麦区冬春气象干旱趋势及其可能影响[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(9):1754-1763.
[13]刘宗明,贾志绚,李兴莉.基于灰色马尔科夫链模型的交通量预测[J].华东交通大学学报,2012,29(1):30-34.
[14]张一驰,吴凯,于静洁,等.华北地区1951-2009年气温、降水变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1930-1940.
[15]张皓,冯利平,等.近50年华北地区降水量时空变化特征研究[J].自然资源学报,2010,25(2):270-278.
[16]孙燕,王谦谦,钱永甫,等.华北四季降水特征及与我国其他地区降水的联系[J].南京气象学院学报,2002(4):504-508.
[17]张庆云.1880年以来华北降水及水资源的变化[J].高原气象,1999,18(4):486-495.
[18]张磊.中国北方降水变化特征及其影响因子的研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2007.
[19]王涛,钱会,李培月.加权马尔科夫链在银川地区降雨量预测中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2010,8(1):78-81.
[20]张杰,陶望雄,王青.加权马尔可夫链在济南市降水量预测中的应用[J].人民黄河,2016,32(9):13-16.