SANDRA法对北京小时强降水扰动环流场的分型研究
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摘要
利用cost733class软件中的SANDRA(Simulated ANnealing and Diversified RAndomization)客观分型方法对北京地区2007～2014年暖季5～9月的小时强降水日的500 hPa扰动位势高度场进行分型研究。结果显示,所划分的4类环流形势分别在蒙古、东北—华北地区、河套地区和俄罗斯远东地区存在扰动低压区。根据4类环流形势的质心,将2007～2014年暖季所有日划归4类,计算每类小时强降水日占各自类型总天数的百分比得出蒙古扰动低压类的小时强降水日出现概率最大。统计小时强降水日的探空廓线得出,925 hPa和850 hPa的比湿中位数分别为13.01 g kg~(-1)和10.64 g kg~(-1),这2个层级上最常出现的风向是180°～225°。
Using SANDRA(Simulated ANnealing and Diversified RAndomization), the hourly heavy rainfall days in Beijing during the warm seasons(May-September) of 2007-2014 are classified into four types based on 500 hPa anomalous geopotential height fields. There is an anomalous low in Mongolia, Northeast and North China, Hetao region,and Russian Far East, respectively, in the four types. All the days during the warm seasons of 2007-2014 are then assigned to one of the four types according to the centroids of the types. The result shows that the type in which an anomalous low is located in Mongolia has the largest probability of hourly heavy rainfall. The statistical analysis of sounding on hourly heavy rainfall days reveals that the median specific humidity values of 925 hPa and 850 hPa are13.01 g kg~(-1) and 10.64 g kg~(-1), respectively, and that the wind direction in the range of 180°-225° is dominant at these two levels.
Using SANDRA(Simulated ANnealing and Diversified RAndomization), the hourly heavy rainfall days in Beijing during the warm seasons(May-September) of 2007-2014 are classified into four types based on 500 hPa anomalous geopotential height fields. There is an anomalous low in Mongolia, Northeast and North China, Hetao region,and Russian Far East, respectively, in the four types. All the days during the warm seasons of 2007-2014 are then assigned to one of the four types according to the centroids of the types. The result shows that the type in which an anomalous low is located in Mongolia has the largest probability of hourly heavy rainfall. The statistical analysis of sounding on hourly heavy rainfall days reveals that the median specific humidity values of 925 hPa and 850 hPa are13.01 g kg~(-1) and 10.64 g kg~(-1), respectively, and that the wind direction in the range of 180°-225° is dominant at these two levels.
引文
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孙明生,汪细明,罗阳,等.1996.北京地区强对流天气展望预报方法研究[J].应用气象学报,7(3):336-343.Sun Mingsheng,Wang Ximing,Luo Yang,et al.1996.A prospect forecasting method study of severe convective weather in Beijing area[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorlolgy(in Chinese),7(3):336-343.
王国荣,王令.2013.北京地区夏季短时强降水时空分布特征[J].暴雨灾害,32(3):276-279.Wang Guorong,Wang Ling.2013.Temporal and spatial distribution of short-time heavy rain of Beijing in summer[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),32(3):276-279.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.03.012
熊亚军,廖晓农,于波,等.2012.基于天气分型的北京地区雷电潜势预报预警系统[J].灾害学,27(2):67-71,81.Xiong Yajun,Liao Xiaonong,Yu Bo,et al.2012.Warning and forecast system of potential thunderstorm based on weather patterns in Beijing[J].Journal of Catastrophology(in Chinese),27(2):67-71,81.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2012.02.014
许爱华,孙继松,许东蓓,等.2014.中国中东部强对流天气的天气形势分类和基本要素配置特征[J].气象,40(4):400-411.Xu Aihua,Sun Jisong,Xu Dongbei,et al.2014.Basic synoptic situation classification and element character of severe convection in China[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),40(4):400-411.doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.04.002
张永婧,高帆,于丽娟,等.2017.济南市区短时强降水特征分析与天气分型[J].海洋气象学报,37(3):109-116.Zhang Yongjing,Gao Fan,Yu Lijuan,et al.2017.Characteristics analysis and synoptic classification of short-duration heavy rainfall in Jinan urban area[J].Journal of Marine Meteorology(in Chinese),37(3):109-116.doi:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2017.03.013
冯志刚,程兴无,陈星,等.2013.淮河流域暴雨强降水的环流分型和气候特征[J].热带气象学报,29(5):824-832.Feng Zhigang,Cheng Xingwu,Chen Xing,et al.2013.The classification of the circulations and the climatic characteristics of rainstorms in Huaihe River basin[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology(in Chinese),29(5):824-832.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2013.05.012
Li H,Cui X,Zhang D L.2017.A statistical analysis of hourly heavy rainfall events over the Beijing metropolitan region during the warm seasons of 2007-2014[J].International Journal of Climatology,37:4027-4042,doi:10.1002/joc.4983.
李江萍,杜亮亮,张宇,等.2012.玛曲地区夏季强降水的环流分型及水汽轨迹分析[J].高原气象,31(6):1582-1590.Li Jiangping,Du Liangliang,Zhang Yu,et al.2012.Analysis on circulation pattern and water vapor source of heavy precipitation in Maqu region[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),31(6):1582-1590.
闵晶晶,邓长菊,曹晓钟,等.2015.强对流天气形势聚类分析中SOM方法应用[J].气象科技,43(2):244-249.Min Jingjing,Deng Changju,Cao Xiaozhong,et al.2015.Synoptic circulation pattern clustering analysis of severe convective weather based on selforganizing maps(SOM)[J].Meteorological Science and Technology(in Chinese),43(2):244-249.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6345.2015.02.015
Philipp A,Della-Marta P M,Jacobeit J,et al.2007.Long-term variability of daily north atlantic-european pressure patterns since1850 classified by simulated annealing clustering[J].J.Climate,20(16):4065-4095.doi:10.1175/jcli4175.1
Philipp A,Beck C,Esteban P,et al.2014.Cost733class-1.2 User Guide[M].http://cost733.geo.uni-augsburg.de/download/cost733class-1.2/cost733class_userguide.pdf
钱维宏,单晓龙,朱亚芬.2012.天气尺度扰动流场对区域暴雨的指示能力[J].地球物理学报,55(5):1513-1522.Qian Weihong,Shan Xiaolong,Zhu Yafen.2012.Capability of regional-scale transient wind anomalies to indicate regional heavy rains[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),55(5):1513-1522.doi:10.6038/j.issn.0001-5733.2012.05.008
钱维宏,蒋宁,杜钧.2016.中国东部7类暴雨异常环流型[J].气象,42(6):674-685.Qian Weihong,Jiang Ning,Du Jun.2016.Seven anomalous synoptic patterns of regional heavy rain in eastern China[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),42(6):674-685.doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.06.003
任芝花,赵平,张强,等.2010.适用于全国自动站小时降水资料的质量控制方法[J].气象,36(7):123-132.Ren Zhihua,Zhao Ping,Zhang Qiang,et al.2010.Quality control procedures for hourly precipitation data from automatic weather stations in China[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),36(7):123-132.
任芝花,张志富,孙超,等.2015.全国自动气象站实时观测资料三级质量控制系统研制[J].气象,41(10):1268-1277.Ren Zhihua,Zhang Zhifu,Sun Chao,et al.2015.Development of three-step quality control system of real-time observation data from AWS in China[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),41(10):1268-1277.doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2015.10.010
孙建华,张小玲,卫捷,等.2005.20世纪90年代华北大暴雨过程特征的分析研究[J].气候与环境研究,10(3):492-506.Sun Jianhua,Zhang Xiaoling,Wei Jie,et al.2005.A study on severe heavy rainfall in North China during the 1990s[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),10(3):492-506.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2005.03.020
孙明生,汪细明,罗阳,等.1996.北京地区强对流天气展望预报方法研究[J].应用气象学报,7(3):336-343.Sun Mingsheng,Wang Ximing,Luo Yang,et al.1996.A prospect forecasting method study of severe convective weather in Beijing area[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorlolgy(in Chinese),7(3):336-343.
王国荣,王令.2013.北京地区夏季短时强降水时空分布特征[J].暴雨灾害,32(3):276-279.Wang Guorong,Wang Ling.2013.Temporal and spatial distribution of short-time heavy rain of Beijing in summer[J].Torrential Rain and Disasters(in Chinese),32(3):276-279.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9045.2013.03.012
熊亚军,廖晓农,于波,等.2012.基于天气分型的北京地区雷电潜势预报预警系统[J].灾害学,27(2):67-71,81.Xiong Yajun,Liao Xiaonong,Yu Bo,et al.2012.Warning and forecast system of potential thunderstorm based on weather patterns in Beijing[J].Journal of Catastrophology(in Chinese),27(2):67-71,81.doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2012.02.014
许爱华,孙继松,许东蓓,等.2014.中国中东部强对流天气的天气形势分类和基本要素配置特征[J].气象,40(4):400-411.Xu Aihua,Sun Jisong,Xu Dongbei,et al.2014.Basic synoptic situation classification and element character of severe convection in China[J].Meteorological Monthly(in Chinese),40(4):400-411.doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2014.04.002
张永婧,高帆,于丽娟,等.2017.济南市区短时强降水特征分析与天气分型[J].海洋气象学报,37(3):109-116.Zhang Yongjing,Gao Fan,Yu Lijuan,et al.2017.Characteristics analysis and synoptic classification of short-duration heavy rainfall in Jinan urban area[J].Journal of Marine Meteorology(in Chinese),37(3):109-116.doi:10.19513/j.cnki.issn2096-3599.2017.03.013