基于蒙特卡罗仿真的电力变压器故障树分析
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摘要
针对电力变压器故障复杂、可靠性数据缺乏等问题,提出一种基于蒙特卡罗仿真分析故障树的方法。通过将变压器故障与组成变压器基本部件的故障有机地联系在一起,以故障树结构函数为基础,建立变压器可靠性仿真模型,再利用蒙特卡罗算法建立仿真求解流程,从而得到变压器在规定任务时间内的可靠度、平均无故障时间以及各底事件的重要度和模式重要度等。实验结果表明该方法与依据统计数据计算的结果接近,误差为1.8%,电力变压器平均无故障工作时间为25 y左右,系统可靠度约为0.6,且引发变压器故障的薄弱环节是线圈绝缘部分,并建议通过减小各基本部件的故障率以达到将变压器可靠度提高到0.9,变压器平均无故障工作时间达到30 y。
Aiming at the problems of complex faults and lack of reliability data in power transformers, a method based on Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the fault tree is proposed.Based on the fault tree structure function, the transformer reliability simulation model is built on the basis of fault tree structure function, and then the Monte Carlo algorithm is used to establish the simulation solution process, and the reliability and average failure time of the transformer in the specified task time are obtained. The importance and mode importance of each event.The experimental results show that the method is close to the results based on statistical data, the error is 1.8%, the average fault-free working time of the power transformer is about 25 years, the system reliability is about 0.6, and the weak part of the transformer fault is the coil insulation part. It is also recommended that by reducing the failure rate of the basic components to achieve a transformer reliability of 0.9, the average transformer failure-free operation time reaches 30 years.
Aiming at the problems of complex faults and lack of reliability data in power transformers, a method based on Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the fault tree is proposed.Based on the fault tree structure function, the transformer reliability simulation model is built on the basis of fault tree structure function, and then the Monte Carlo algorithm is used to establish the simulation solution process, and the reliability and average failure time of the transformer in the specified task time are obtained. The importance and mode importance of each event.The experimental results show that the method is close to the results based on statistical data, the error is 1.8%, the average fault-free working time of the power transformer is about 25 years, the system reliability is about 0.6, and the weak part of the transformer fault is the coil insulation part. It is also recommended that by reducing the failure rate of the basic components to achieve a transformer reliability of 0.9, the average transformer failure-free operation time reaches 30 years.
引文
[1] 陈珊琦.故障树和事件树建模与分析的关键算法研究[D].合肥:中国科学技术大学,2015.
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[12] 刘智键,刘宝林,胡远彪.基于蒙特卡罗方法的机床主轴可靠性预测[J].组合机床与自动化加工技术,2018(2):34-36,42.
[13] 郭晓斌,程乐峰,王国平,等.基于动态修正技术的电力变压器可靠性评估模型研究[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(6):148-155.
[14] 赵婉芳. 电力变压器可靠性理论研究及其应用[D].杭州:浙江大学,2015.
[15] 方敏,周书粤,陈永梅,等.故障树结构调整的多值决策图变量排序方法[J].西安电子科技大学学报,2017,44(6):20-25,26.
[16] 彭小容,郝晓琴.基于蒙特卡罗算法的输电线路绕击跳闸率研究[J].电瓷避雷器,2018(1): 115-120.
[2] 姚琪, 郭汶昇. 基于故障树法的电力变压器可靠性及失效分析[J].电气自动化,2015, 37(3): 84-86.
[3] 陈彦交,罗晓庆,基于故障树分析法的电力变压器故障诊断专家系统[J].陕西电力,2012,40(12):55-59,74.
[4] 周宁,马建伟,胡博,等.基于故障树分析的电力变压器可靠性跟踪方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(19):72-77.
[5] 张冬梅,马文华,刘昕彤,等.基于故障树分析的矿井提升机故障诊断[J].煤炭技术,2018, 37(4):265-267.
[6] 王赫.基于蒙特卡罗算法的分散式风力发电优化配置研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2017.
[7] XU X, YAN Z. Probabilistic load flow calculation with quasi-Monte Carlo and multiple linear regres-sion[J]. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2017(88):1-12.
[8] NAEIMI H, KOWSARY F. An optimized and accurate Monte Carlo method to simulate 3D complex radiative enclosures[J]. International Communications in Heat and Mass Transfer,2017:84.
[9] 胡杰鑫,谢里阳,邢宇,等.基于FMECA的自动绘制故障树方法[J].哈尔滨工程大学学报,2017, 38(7):1162-1166,1178.
[10] 李生虎,华玉婷,董王朝,等.计及高压隔离开关设备的UHVDC系统FTA评估[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(1):74-80.
[11] 张德银,梁威鹏,黄选红,等.基于故障树的航空磁电机故障诊断研究[J].西安航空学院学报,2018,36(1):13-18.
[12] 刘智键,刘宝林,胡远彪.基于蒙特卡罗方法的机床主轴可靠性预测[J].组合机床与自动化加工技术,2018(2):34-36,42.
[13] 郭晓斌,程乐峰,王国平,等.基于动态修正技术的电力变压器可靠性评估模型研究[J].电力自动化设备,2016,36(6):148-155.
[14] 赵婉芳. 电力变压器可靠性理论研究及其应用[D].杭州:浙江大学,2015.
[15] 方敏,周书粤,陈永梅,等.故障树结构调整的多值决策图变量排序方法[J].西安电子科技大学学报,2017,44(6):20-25,26.
[16] 彭小容,郝晓琴.基于蒙特卡罗算法的输电线路绕击跳闸率研究[J].电瓷避雷器,2018(1): 115-120.