复杂产品MRO协同服务链建模与不确定性分析方法
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摘要
针对复杂产品维护、维修和大修(MRO)协同服务链中存在大量不确定性,其关系杂乱而不能进行有效的分析建模的问题,在分析复杂产品MRO协同服务链特点的基础上,建立了复杂产品MRO协同服务链结构模型;提出一套复杂产品MRO协同服务链不确定性建模与分析方法,从面向复杂产品MRO协同服务链结构基元和面向服务过程两个层面分析了不确定性因素的来源,定义了显性和隐性不确定性的概念,建立了层次性不确定性传播关系模型;考虑各类不确定性因素的不确定度波动范围和概率对不确定性因素敏感性的影响,提出一种两层次的复杂产品MRO协同服务链不确定性因素敏感性分析方法。案例验证表明,所提不确定性传递模型和敏感性分析方法能够支撑复杂产品MRO协同服务链不确定性的预防控制。
There are a lot of uncertainties in the collaborative Maintenance,Repair and Overhaul/Operations(MRO)service chain of complex product,and the relationships are disorganized and cannot be effectively analyzed and modeled.Based on analyzing the characteristics of complex product's collaborative MRO service chain,the structural model of collaborative MRO service chain was built.Uncertainty modeling and analysis methods of complex product's collaborative MRO service chain were proposed,the sources of uncertainty were analyzed in the view of structure units and service process view of the collaborative MRO service chain of complex product,the concept of dominant uncertainty and recessive uncertainty were defined,and an uncertainty transmission relationship model was constructed.By considering the influence of variation range and the corresponding probability functions of the uncertainty factors,an uncertainty sensitivity analysis method for collaborative MRO service chain of complex product was proposed.Results of the case study showed that the proposed method could support the uncertainty prevention control of complex MRO collaborative service chain.
There are a lot of uncertainties in the collaborative Maintenance,Repair and Overhaul/Operations(MRO)service chain of complex product,and the relationships are disorganized and cannot be effectively analyzed and modeled.Based on analyzing the characteristics of complex product's collaborative MRO service chain,the structural model of collaborative MRO service chain was built.Uncertainty modeling and analysis methods of complex product's collaborative MRO service chain were proposed,the sources of uncertainty were analyzed in the view of structure units and service process view of the collaborative MRO service chain of complex product,the concept of dominant uncertainty and recessive uncertainty were defined,and an uncertainty transmission relationship model was constructed.By considering the influence of variation range and the corresponding probability functions of the uncertainty factors,an uncertainty sensitivity analysis method for collaborative MRO service chain of complex product was proposed.Results of the case study showed that the proposed method could support the uncertainty prevention control of complex MRO collaborative service chain.
引文
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[13]CHEN Haiming,CUI Li,XIE Kaibin.A comparative study on architectures and implementation methodologies of Internet of things[J].Chinese Journal of Computers,2013,36(1):168-188(in Chinese).[陈海明,崔莉,谢开斌.物联网体系结构与实现方法的比较研究[J].计算机学报,2013,36(1):168-188.]
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[17]JI Feng,HE Weiping,WANG Dongcheng,et al.Research on collaborative manufacturing chain for complex parts in networked manufacturing environment[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2006,12(1):71-77(in Chinese).[吉锋,何卫平,王东成,等.网络制造环境下面向复杂零件的协同制造链研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2006,12(1):71-77.]
[18]ZHAO Han,WU Zhaoyun,DONG Yude,et al.A collaborative commerce platform for supply chain based on application service provider[J].Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering,2008,27(3):286-291(in Chinese).[赵韩,武照云,董玉德,等.基于应用服务提供商的供应链协同商务平台的研究[J].机械科学与技术,2008,27(3):286-291.]
[19]GOGU C,QIU Y,SEGONDS S,et al.Optimization based algorithms for uncertainty propagation through functions with multidimensional output within evidence theory[J].Journal of Mechanical Design,2012,134(10):100914.
[20]LUO Guofu,LI Hao,MA Jun,et al.Analysis and modeling of system uncertainties in collaborative manufacturing chains[J].High Technology Letters,2011,21(9):954-961(in Chinese).[罗国富,李浩,马军,等.协同制造链的系统不确定性分析与建模[J].高技术通讯,2011,21(9):954-961.]
[21]WANG Yingluo,Systems engineering[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Machine Press,2003,130-140(in Chinese).[汪应洛.系统工程[M].第2版.北京:机械工业出版社,2003,130-140.]
[22]DENG Xue,LI Jiaming,ZENG Haojian,et al.Analysis and application study on weights calculation method for analytic hierarchy process[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(7):93-100(in Chinese).[邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.]
[23]QIN Ji,ZHANG Yipeng.Application of contemporary statistical information analysis method in safety engineeringthe priciple of AHP[J].Industrial Safety and Dust Control,1999(5):44-48(in Chinese).[秦吉,张翼鹏.现代统计信息分析技术在安全工程方面的应用---层次分析法原理[J].工业安全与防尘,1999(5):44-48.]
[24]ZENG Xian.Risk assessment of BOT Projects based on sensitivity analysis[D].Beijing:North China University of Technology,2010(in Chinese).[曾娴.基于敏感性分析的BOT项目风险评价研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2010.]
[25]CAMPOLONGO F,SALTELLI A,CARIBONI J.From screening to quantitative sensitivity analysis.a unified approach[J].Computer Physics Communications,2011,182(4):978-988.
[26]XU C,GERTNER G Z.Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for models with correlated parameters[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2008,93(10):1563-1573.
[27]CASTILLO E,MNGUEZ R,CASTILLO C.Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2008,93(12):1788-1800.
[28]TANG Zhong,LI Wenqiang,LI Yan.Sensitivity and reliability analysis method of interval uncertainty parameters[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2017,23(12):2593-2603(in Chinese).[唐忠,李文强,李彦.一种区间不确定性参数的敏感度与可靠性分析方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2017,23(12):2593-2603.]
[2]MILLER L T,PARK C S.Economic analysis in the maintenance,repair,and overhaul industry:an options approach[J].The Engineering Economist,2004,49(1):21-41.
[3]HO Y C,CHANG O C,WANG W B.An empirical study of key success factors for Six Sigma Green Belt projects at an Asian MRO company[J].Journal of Air Transport Management,2008,14(5):263-269.
[4]CHENG Yaoan,ZHANG Li,LIU Yingbo,et al.Solution of MRO support system for large complex equipment[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2010,16(10):2026-2037(in Chinese).[程曜安,张力,刘英博,等.大型复杂装备MRO系统解决方案[J].计算机集成制造系统,2010,16(10):2026-2037.]
[5]WANG Jianmin,REN Genquan,ZHANG Li,et al.Maintenance repair and overhaul/operations support technology[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2010,16(10):2017-2025(in Chinese).[王建民,任艮全,张力,等.MRO支持技术研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2010,16(10):2017-2025.]
[6]WANG Jianmin.Maintenance repair and overhaul/operations support technology based on lifecycle management[J].Defense Manufacturing Technology,2010(3):14-20(in Chinese).[王建民.面向全生命周期的MRO支持技术[J].国防制造技术,2010(3):14-20.]
[7]LUXHJ J T,RIIS J O,THORSTEINSSON U.Trends and perspectives in industrial maintenance management[J].Journal of Manufacturing Systems,1997,16(6):437-453.
[8]UHLMANN E,BILZ M,BAUMGARTEN J.MRO-challenge and chance for sustainable enterprises[J].Procedia CIRP,2013,11:239-244.
[9]GENG Junhao,TIAN Xitian,BAI Mingxing,et al.A design method for three-dimensional maintenance,repair and overhaul job card of complex products[J].Computers in Industry,2014,65(1):200-209.
[10]MARQUEZ A C,GUPTA J N D.Contemporary maintenance management:process,framework and supporting pillars[J].Omega,2006,34(3):313-326.
[11]LI Hao,MI Shanghua,LUO Guofu.A service business process modeling method of complex equipment based on Petri nets[J].Journal of Light Industry,2016,31(3):63-73(in Chinese).[李浩,密尚华,罗国富.基于Petri网的复杂装备服务业务流程建模方法[J].轻工学报,2016,31(3):63-73.]
[12]MI Shanghua.Modeling and resources scheduling optimization method for the service business process of complex product[D].Zhengzhou:Zhengzhou University of Light Industry,2016(in Chinese).[密尚华.复杂产品服务业务建模与资源调度优化方法研究[D].郑州:郑州轻工业学院,2016.]
[13]CHEN Haiming,CUI Li,XIE Kaibin.A comparative study on architectures and implementation methodologies of Internet of things[J].Chinese Journal of Computers,2013,36(1):168-188(in Chinese).[陈海明,崔莉,谢开斌.物联网体系结构与实现方法的比较研究[J].计算机学报,2013,36(1):168-188.]
[14]QIAO Xiuquan,ZHANG Yang,WU Budan,et al.An ED-SOA-based services provisioning approach for Internet of tings[J].Scientia Sinica:Informations,2013,43(10):1219-1243(in Chinese).[乔秀全,章洋,吴步丹,等.事件驱动、面向服务的物联网服务提供方法[J].中国科学:信息科学,2013,43(10):1219-1243.]
[15]MA Jun,XUE Xiaofei,LUO Guofu,et al.Modeling and application of the reconfigurable coIlaboration manufacture service chain based on agent[J].Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering,2012,31(10):1654-1659(in Chinese).[马军,薛晓飞,罗国富,等.基于Agent的可重构协同制造服务链建模及其应用研究[J].机械科学与技术,2012,31(10):1654-1659.]
[16]LI Bohu,CHAI Xudong,ZHU Wenhai,et al.Supporting environment technology for collaborative manufacturing of complex product[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2003,9(8):691-697(in Chinese).[李伯虎,柴旭东,朱文海,等.复杂产品协同制造支撑环境技术的研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2003,9(8):691-697.]
[17]JI Feng,HE Weiping,WANG Dongcheng,et al.Research on collaborative manufacturing chain for complex parts in networked manufacturing environment[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2006,12(1):71-77(in Chinese).[吉锋,何卫平,王东成,等.网络制造环境下面向复杂零件的协同制造链研究[J].计算机集成制造系统,2006,12(1):71-77.]
[18]ZHAO Han,WU Zhaoyun,DONG Yude,et al.A collaborative commerce platform for supply chain based on application service provider[J].Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering,2008,27(3):286-291(in Chinese).[赵韩,武照云,董玉德,等.基于应用服务提供商的供应链协同商务平台的研究[J].机械科学与技术,2008,27(3):286-291.]
[19]GOGU C,QIU Y,SEGONDS S,et al.Optimization based algorithms for uncertainty propagation through functions with multidimensional output within evidence theory[J].Journal of Mechanical Design,2012,134(10):100914.
[20]LUO Guofu,LI Hao,MA Jun,et al.Analysis and modeling of system uncertainties in collaborative manufacturing chains[J].High Technology Letters,2011,21(9):954-961(in Chinese).[罗国富,李浩,马军,等.协同制造链的系统不确定性分析与建模[J].高技术通讯,2011,21(9):954-961.]
[21]WANG Yingluo,Systems engineering[M].2nd ed.Beijing:China Machine Press,2003,130-140(in Chinese).[汪应洛.系统工程[M].第2版.北京:机械工业出版社,2003,130-140.]
[22]DENG Xue,LI Jiaming,ZENG Haojian,et al.Analysis and application study on weights calculation method for analytic hierarchy process[J].Mathematics in Practice and Theory,2012,42(7):93-100(in Chinese).[邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.]
[23]QIN Ji,ZHANG Yipeng.Application of contemporary statistical information analysis method in safety engineeringthe priciple of AHP[J].Industrial Safety and Dust Control,1999(5):44-48(in Chinese).[秦吉,张翼鹏.现代统计信息分析技术在安全工程方面的应用---层次分析法原理[J].工业安全与防尘,1999(5):44-48.]
[24]ZENG Xian.Risk assessment of BOT Projects based on sensitivity analysis[D].Beijing:North China University of Technology,2010(in Chinese).[曾娴.基于敏感性分析的BOT项目风险评价研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2010.]
[25]CAMPOLONGO F,SALTELLI A,CARIBONI J.From screening to quantitative sensitivity analysis.a unified approach[J].Computer Physics Communications,2011,182(4):978-988.
[26]XU C,GERTNER G Z.Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for models with correlated parameters[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2008,93(10):1563-1573.
[27]CASTILLO E,MNGUEZ R,CASTILLO C.Sensitivity analysis in optimization and reliability problems[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2008,93(12):1788-1800.
[28]TANG Zhong,LI Wenqiang,LI Yan.Sensitivity and reliability analysis method of interval uncertainty parameters[J].Computer Integrated Manufacturing Systems,2017,23(12):2593-2603(in Chinese).[唐忠,李文强,李彦.一种区间不确定性参数的敏感度与可靠性分析方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2017,23(12):2593-2603.]