“一带一路”沿线国家城镇化发展质量综合评价——基于经济、制度、社会视角
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摘要
将制度因素加入城镇化质量评价体系中,并使用2000—2016年"一带一路"沿线国家数据,综合考虑指标权重和时间权重,采用综合赋权法从经济水平、制度质量、社会发展三个层次对各国城镇化发展质量进行评价,并分别从时间、空间等维度进行比较分析。结果发现,"一带一路"沿线国家城镇化发展质量总体水平呈上升趋势,但不同地区的发展质量和时间演变趋势存在较大差异。其中,中东欧地区整体质量较高,中亚、南亚地区整体质量偏低。中国排在中上位置,经济因素得分最高,制度因素得分最低。对各国的城镇化发展速度与发展质量进行同步化分析,发现大部分国家属于质量同步型。
Based on the data of countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2016 and taking into account the weight of indicators and the weight of time, this paper adds institutional factor to the quality evaluation system of urbanization and makes a dynamic assessment of the quality of comprehensive urbanization from three levels: economic development,institutional quality and social development. The research results show that the overall urbanization development quality in the sample countries is rising, but there are great differences in the development quality and time evolution trend in different regions. Among them, the overall urbanization development quality in central and eastern Europe is relatively high, while it is relatively low in central and southern Asia. China ranks in the top middle with the highest score in economic factor and the lowest score in institutional factor. In this study, we analyze the speed and quality of urbanization in various countries and find that most countries are of the same quality.
Based on the data of countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2016 and taking into account the weight of indicators and the weight of time, this paper adds institutional factor to the quality evaluation system of urbanization and makes a dynamic assessment of the quality of comprehensive urbanization from three levels: economic development,institutional quality and social development. The research results show that the overall urbanization development quality in the sample countries is rising, but there are great differences in the development quality and time evolution trend in different regions. Among them, the overall urbanization development quality in central and eastern Europe is relatively high, while it is relatively low in central and southern Asia. China ranks in the top middle with the highest score in economic factor and the lowest score in institutional factor. In this study, we analyze the speed and quality of urbanization in various countries and find that most countries are of the same quality.
引文
[1]罗润东,李超.2017年中国经济学研究热点分析[J].经济学动态,2018(4):103-121.
[2]王云,马丽,刘毅.城镇化研究进展与趋势--基于CiteSpace和HistCite的图谱量化分析[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(2):239-254.
[3]蔡继明.“一带一路”与新型城镇化的战略耦合[J].福建理论学习,2016(1):4-9.
[4]陈明星.“一带一路”与新型城镇化的融合发展[J].科技导报,2018,36(3):84-92.
[5]高倩,阿里木江·卡斯木.“一带一路”沿线之中国新疆-中亚-西亚城市空间扩张[J].经济地理,2017,37(5):51-57.
[6]方创琳.改革开放40年来中国城镇化与城市群取得的重要进展与展望[J].经济地理,2018,38(9):1-9.
[7]陈明星,陆大道,张华.中国城市化水平的综合测度及其动力因子分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):387-398.
[8]方创琳,王德利.中国城市化发展质量的综合测度与提升路径[J].地理研究,2011,30(11):1 931-1 946.
[9]魏后凯,王业强,苏红键,等.中国城镇化质量综合评价报告[J].经济研究参考,2013(31):3-32.
[10]蓝庆新,刘昭洁,彭一然.中国新型城镇化质量评价指标体系构建及评价方法--基于2003-2014年31个省市的空间差异研究[J].南方经济,2017(1):111-126.
[11]熊湘辉,徐璋勇.中国新型城镇化水平及动力因素测度研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,35(2):44-63.
[12]余江,叶林.中国新型城镇化发展水平的综合评价:构建、测度与比较[J].武汉大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2018,71(2):145-156.
[13]Marc Antrop.Landscape change and the urbanization process in Europe[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2004,67(1):9-26.
[14]Fuller richard A,Gaston kevin J.The scaling of green space coverage in European cities[J].Biology Letters,2009,5(3):352-355.
[15]Du Danning.The causal relationship between land urbanization quality and economic growth:evidence from capital cities in China[J].Quality&Quantity,2016,51(6):2 707-2 723.
[16]Cui Xuegang,Fang Chuanglin,Liu Haimeng,et al.Assessing sustainability of urbanization by a coordinated development in‐dex for an Urbanization-Resources-Environment complex sys‐tem:A case study of Jing-Jin-Ji region,China[J].Ecological Indicators,2019,96:383-391.
[17]Fei Chen,Hiroyuki Kusaka,Robert Bornstein,et al.The integrated WRF/urban modelling system:development,evalua‐tion,and applications to urban environmental problems[J].In‐ternational Journal of Climatology,2011,31(2):273-288.
[18]Mcdonald R I,Green P P,Balk D,et al.Urban Growth,Climate Change,and Freshwater Availability[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2011,108(15):6 312-6 317.
[19]Palmer M A,Menninger H L,Bernhardt E.River restoration,habitat heterogeneity and biodiversity:a failure of theory or practice?[J].Freshwater Biology,2010,55(Supplement s1):205-222.
[20]Liu Haimeng,Fang Chuanglin,Zhang Xiaoling,et al.The effect of natural and anthropogenic factors on haze pollution in Chinese cities:A spatial econometrics approach[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,165:323-333.
[21]James C,Davis J.vernon henderson.Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process[J].Journal of Urban Eco‐nomics,2003,53(1):98-125.
[22]Ghani S E,Kanbur R.Urbanization and(In)Formalization[R].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013.
[23]North D C.Institutions Institutional Change and Economic Performance[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1990.
[24]Julian Messina.Institutions and Service Employment:A Panel Study for OECD Countries[J].LABOUR,2005,19(2):343-372.
[25]邵军,徐康宁.制度质量、外资进入与增长效应:一个跨国的经验研究[J].世界经济,2008(7):3-14.
[26]谢孟军.基于制度质量视角的我国出口贸易区位选择影响因素研究--扩展引力模型的面板数据实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2013(6):3-15.
[27]辜胜阻,李正友.中国自下而上城镇化的制度分析[J].中国社会科学,1998(2):60-70.
[28]赵新平,周一星.改革以来中国城市化道路及城市化理论研究述评[J].中国社会科学,2002(2):132-138.
[29]王曦,陈中飞.中国城镇化水平的决定因素:基于国际经验[J].世界经济,2015,38(6):167-192.
[30]Méon,Pierre-Guillaume,Sekkat K.Institutional quality and trade:which institutions?which trade?[J].Economic Inquiry,2010,46(2):227-240.
[31]Ojeaga P,George E,Alege P O,et al.International Trade,Do Institutions Matter?Evidence from Regional Studies[J].The‐oretical Economics Letters,2014,4(4):584-597.
[32]Globerman S,Shapiro D.Global Foreign Direct Investment Flows:the Role of Governance Infrastructure[J].World Devel‐opment,2002,30(11):1 899-1 919.
[33]潘镇.制度质量、制度距离与双边贸易[J].中国工业经济,2006(7):45-52.
[34]马晓东,何伦志.融入全球价值链能促进本国产业结构升级吗--基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(7):95-107.
[35]黄玮强,姚爽,郭亚军.不完全指标偏好信息下的动态综合评价模型与应用[J].东北大学学报:自然科学版,2011,32(6):891-894,899.
(1)缅甸、新加坡、文莱、土库曼斯坦、阿富汗、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、伊拉克、科威特、叙利亚、黎巴嫩、以色列、巴勒斯坦、约旦、沙特阿拉伯、巴林、卡塔尔、阿联酋、黑山等19个国家样本数据存在缺失,故剔除。
(1)“高—高”型有拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、捷克、保加利亚、匈牙利、塞浦路斯、波兰、马来西亚、罗马尼亚、克罗地亚、土耳其、马其顿、俄罗斯、斯洛伐克、格鲁吉亚、白俄罗斯、伊朗、蒙古、阿塞拜疆。“低—低”型有吉尔吉斯斯坦、阿尔巴尼亚、菲律宾、越南、摩尔多瓦、柬埔寨、埃及、乌兹别克斯坦、老挝、印度、塔吉克斯坦、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、也门。
[2]王云,马丽,刘毅.城镇化研究进展与趋势--基于CiteSpace和HistCite的图谱量化分析[J].地理科学进展,2018,37(2):239-254.
[3]蔡继明.“一带一路”与新型城镇化的战略耦合[J].福建理论学习,2016(1):4-9.
[4]陈明星.“一带一路”与新型城镇化的融合发展[J].科技导报,2018,36(3):84-92.
[5]高倩,阿里木江·卡斯木.“一带一路”沿线之中国新疆-中亚-西亚城市空间扩张[J].经济地理,2017,37(5):51-57.
[6]方创琳.改革开放40年来中国城镇化与城市群取得的重要进展与展望[J].经济地理,2018,38(9):1-9.
[7]陈明星,陆大道,张华.中国城市化水平的综合测度及其动力因子分析[J].地理学报,2009,64(4):387-398.
[8]方创琳,王德利.中国城市化发展质量的综合测度与提升路径[J].地理研究,2011,30(11):1 931-1 946.
[9]魏后凯,王业强,苏红键,等.中国城镇化质量综合评价报告[J].经济研究参考,2013(31):3-32.
[10]蓝庆新,刘昭洁,彭一然.中国新型城镇化质量评价指标体系构建及评价方法--基于2003-2014年31个省市的空间差异研究[J].南方经济,2017(1):111-126.
[11]熊湘辉,徐璋勇.中国新型城镇化水平及动力因素测度研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2018,35(2):44-63.
[12]余江,叶林.中国新型城镇化发展水平的综合评价:构建、测度与比较[J].武汉大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2018,71(2):145-156.
[13]Marc Antrop.Landscape change and the urbanization process in Europe[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2004,67(1):9-26.
[14]Fuller richard A,Gaston kevin J.The scaling of green space coverage in European cities[J].Biology Letters,2009,5(3):352-355.
[15]Du Danning.The causal relationship between land urbanization quality and economic growth:evidence from capital cities in China[J].Quality&Quantity,2016,51(6):2 707-2 723.
[16]Cui Xuegang,Fang Chuanglin,Liu Haimeng,et al.Assessing sustainability of urbanization by a coordinated development in‐dex for an Urbanization-Resources-Environment complex sys‐tem:A case study of Jing-Jin-Ji region,China[J].Ecological Indicators,2019,96:383-391.
[17]Fei Chen,Hiroyuki Kusaka,Robert Bornstein,et al.The integrated WRF/urban modelling system:development,evalua‐tion,and applications to urban environmental problems[J].In‐ternational Journal of Climatology,2011,31(2):273-288.
[18]Mcdonald R I,Green P P,Balk D,et al.Urban Growth,Climate Change,and Freshwater Availability[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2011,108(15):6 312-6 317.
[19]Palmer M A,Menninger H L,Bernhardt E.River restoration,habitat heterogeneity and biodiversity:a failure of theory or practice?[J].Freshwater Biology,2010,55(Supplement s1):205-222.
[20]Liu Haimeng,Fang Chuanglin,Zhang Xiaoling,et al.The effect of natural and anthropogenic factors on haze pollution in Chinese cities:A spatial econometrics approach[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2017,165:323-333.
[21]James C,Davis J.vernon henderson.Evidence on the political economy of the urbanization process[J].Journal of Urban Eco‐nomics,2003,53(1):98-125.
[22]Ghani S E,Kanbur R.Urbanization and(In)Formalization[R].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2013.
[23]North D C.Institutions Institutional Change and Economic Performance[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,1990.
[24]Julian Messina.Institutions and Service Employment:A Panel Study for OECD Countries[J].LABOUR,2005,19(2):343-372.
[25]邵军,徐康宁.制度质量、外资进入与增长效应:一个跨国的经验研究[J].世界经济,2008(7):3-14.
[26]谢孟军.基于制度质量视角的我国出口贸易区位选择影响因素研究--扩展引力模型的面板数据实证检验[J].国际贸易问题,2013(6):3-15.
[27]辜胜阻,李正友.中国自下而上城镇化的制度分析[J].中国社会科学,1998(2):60-70.
[28]赵新平,周一星.改革以来中国城市化道路及城市化理论研究述评[J].中国社会科学,2002(2):132-138.
[29]王曦,陈中飞.中国城镇化水平的决定因素:基于国际经验[J].世界经济,2015,38(6):167-192.
[30]Méon,Pierre-Guillaume,Sekkat K.Institutional quality and trade:which institutions?which trade?[J].Economic Inquiry,2010,46(2):227-240.
[31]Ojeaga P,George E,Alege P O,et al.International Trade,Do Institutions Matter?Evidence from Regional Studies[J].The‐oretical Economics Letters,2014,4(4):584-597.
[32]Globerman S,Shapiro D.Global Foreign Direct Investment Flows:the Role of Governance Infrastructure[J].World Devel‐opment,2002,30(11):1 899-1 919.
[33]潘镇.制度质量、制度距离与双边贸易[J].中国工业经济,2006(7):45-52.
[34]马晓东,何伦志.融入全球价值链能促进本国产业结构升级吗--基于“一带一路”沿线国家数据的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2018(7):95-107.
[35]黄玮强,姚爽,郭亚军.不完全指标偏好信息下的动态综合评价模型与应用[J].东北大学学报:自然科学版,2011,32(6):891-894,899.
(1)缅甸、新加坡、文莱、土库曼斯坦、阿富汗、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、伊拉克、科威特、叙利亚、黎巴嫩、以色列、巴勒斯坦、约旦、沙特阿拉伯、巴林、卡塔尔、阿联酋、黑山等19个国家样本数据存在缺失,故剔除。
(1)“高—高”型有拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚、立陶宛、捷克、保加利亚、匈牙利、塞浦路斯、波兰、马来西亚、罗马尼亚、克罗地亚、土耳其、马其顿、俄罗斯、斯洛伐克、格鲁吉亚、白俄罗斯、伊朗、蒙古、阿塞拜疆。“低—低”型有吉尔吉斯斯坦、阿尔巴尼亚、菲律宾、越南、摩尔多瓦、柬埔寨、埃及、乌兹别克斯坦、老挝、印度、塔吉克斯坦、巴基斯坦、孟加拉国、尼泊尔、也门。