冬季欧亚大陆盛行天气型与北极增暖异常的可能联系
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摘要
利用ERA-interim的再分析资料和英国大气数据中心的海冰密集度资料,通过复矢量经验正交分析方法(CVEOF),本文研究了自1979-2016年37个冬季(12月1日至次年2月28日)共3330 d对流层中层500 hPa欧亚盛行天气型主要时空变化特征及其与近年来北极对流层中、低层增暖异常和北极海冰减少的可能联系。结果表明,CVEOF1解释了总异常动能的15. 82%,其两个子模态空间型分别表现为三极子型(0°和180°位相)和偶极子型(90°和270°位相)。其中,180°和270°位相的天气型发生时,冬季北极对流层中、低层偏暖,盛行暖北极-冷欧亚的大气环流形势。前期秋季从巴伦支海海域以东到波弗特海海域的海冰密集度(SIC)异常偏少可能是其影响因素之一。近年来这两个位相(180°和270°位相)的发生频次逐渐增多,与冬季频发的极端低温事件有紧密联系。在2005/2006年和2011/2012年冬季的冷事件中,180°和270°位相的发生频次明显偏多。因此,秋季从巴伦支海海域以东到波弗特海海域的SIC偏少,冬季北极对流层中、低层异常偏暖,有利于180°和270°位相天气型盛行,可能是导致冬季极端天气事件频发的主要原因之一。
Based on the reanalysis data of ERA-interim and sea ice concentration data of the British Atmospheric Data Centre(BADC), the main spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the prevailing Eurasian weather pattern at 500 hPa in the middle troposphere over 3330 days during 1979-2016 and its possible relationship with the anomalies in the mid-lower troposphere over the Arctic and the decrease of Arctic sea ice in the recent years are analyzed by using the complex vector empirical orthogonal function(CVEOF).The results show that CVEOF1 accounts for 15. 82% of the total anomalous kinetic energy and its two subpatterns are represented by tripole patterns(0° phase and 180° phase) and dipolar patterns(90° phase and270° phase). The weather patterns of 180° phase and 270° phase were observed in winter when the mid-low troposphere over Actic in winter was warmer than normal and the warm Arctic-cold Eurasian atmosphere circulation prevailed in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, sea ice concentration of the Barents Sea east to the Beaufort Sea was less than normal in autumn, which might be one of the impact factors. Furthermore, the prevailing weather patterns(180° phase and 270° phase) have been increasing in the recent years, and are also closely linked to the extreme weather events in winter. Take the winter of 2005/2006 and the winter of 2011/2012 examples. During the cold events of the two years, the frequency of 180°phase and 270° phase was obviously more than normal, accounting for the majority days of winter. Therefore, sea ice of the Barents Sea east to the Beaufort Sea less than normal in autumn, Arctic middle and lower troposphere in winter warmer than normal, 180° phase and 270° phase weather patterns prevailing in winter might be the impact factors for frequent winter extreme weather events.
Based on the reanalysis data of ERA-interim and sea ice concentration data of the British Atmospheric Data Centre(BADC), the main spatio-temporal variation characteristics of the prevailing Eurasian weather pattern at 500 hPa in the middle troposphere over 3330 days during 1979-2016 and its possible relationship with the anomalies in the mid-lower troposphere over the Arctic and the decrease of Arctic sea ice in the recent years are analyzed by using the complex vector empirical orthogonal function(CVEOF).The results show that CVEOF1 accounts for 15. 82% of the total anomalous kinetic energy and its two subpatterns are represented by tripole patterns(0° phase and 180° phase) and dipolar patterns(90° phase and270° phase). The weather patterns of 180° phase and 270° phase were observed in winter when the mid-low troposphere over Actic in winter was warmer than normal and the warm Arctic-cold Eurasian atmosphere circulation prevailed in the Northern Hemisphere. In addition, sea ice concentration of the Barents Sea east to the Beaufort Sea was less than normal in autumn, which might be one of the impact factors. Furthermore, the prevailing weather patterns(180° phase and 270° phase) have been increasing in the recent years, and are also closely linked to the extreme weather events in winter. Take the winter of 2005/2006 and the winter of 2011/2012 examples. During the cold events of the two years, the frequency of 180°phase and 270° phase was obviously more than normal, accounting for the majority days of winter. Therefore, sea ice of the Barents Sea east to the Beaufort Sea less than normal in autumn, Arctic middle and lower troposphere in winter warmer than normal, 180° phase and 270° phase weather patterns prevailing in winter might be the impact factors for frequent winter extreme weather events.
引文
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宋文玲,袁媛,2017.强厄尔尼诺背景下2015/2016年冬季气候预测的不确定性分析[J].气象,43(10):1249-1258. Song W L,Yuan Y, 2017. Uncertainty analysis of climate prediction for the 2015/2016 winter under the background of super El Nino event[J].Meteor Mon,43(10); 1249-1258(in Chinese).
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Allen R J,Zender C S,2011. Forcing of the Arctic oscillation by Eurasian snow cover[J]. J Climate,24(24):6528-6539.
Barnes E A,Dunn-Sigouin E,Masato G,et al,2014. Exploring recent trends in Northern Hemisphere blocking[J]. Geophys Res Lett,41(2):638-644.
Blume C, Matthes K, 2012. Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models[J]. Atmos Chem Phys,12(13):5691-5701.
Brink K H,Muench R D, 1986. Circulation in the point conceptionSanta Barbara channel region[J]. J Geophys Res,91(C1):877-895.
Cohen J,Jones J,Furtado J,et al,2013. Warm arctic,cold continents:a common pattern related to Arctic sea ice melt,snow advance,and extreme winter weather[J]. Oceanography,26(4):150-160.
Cohen J,Screen J A,Furtado J C,et al,2014. Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather[J]. Nat Geosci,7(9):627-637.
Croci-Maspoli M, Davies H C,2009. Key dynamical features of the2005/06 European winter[J]. Mon Wea Rev,137(2):664-678.
Feng Chuan,Wu B Y,2015. Enhancement of winter arctic warming by the Siberian high over the past decade[J]. Atmos Oceanic Sci Lett,8(5):257-263.
Fletcher C G,Hardiman S C,Kushner P J,et al,2009. The dynamical response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of at-
mospheric GCM integrations[J]. J Climate,22(5):1208-1222.Folland C K,Parker D E,Scaife A A,et al,2006. The 2005/06 winterin Europe and the United Kingdom:Part 2-prediction techniques and their assessment against observations[J]. Weather,61(12):337-346.
Francis J A, Vavrus S J. 2012. Evidence linking arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes[J]. Geophys Res Lett,39(6):L06801.
Honda M,Inoue J, Yamane S,2009. Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters[J]. Geophys Res Lett,36(8):L08707.
Huth R,Beck C,Philipp A,et al,2008. Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns[J]. Ann NY Acad Sci,1146(1):105-152.
Inoue J,Hori M E,Takaya K,2012. The role of barents sea ice in the wintertime cyclone track and emergence of a warm-arctic coldSiberian anomaly[J]. J Climate,25(7):2561-2568.
Jaiser R,Dethloff K,Handorf D,et al,2012. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation[J]. Tellus,64(1):11595.
Jaiser R, Dethloff K, Handorf D, 2013. Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes[J]. Tellus,65(1):19375.
Kaihatu J M, Handler R A, Marmorino G O, et al, 1998. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of ocean surface currents using complex and real-vector methods[J]. J Atmos Ocean Technol,15(4):927-941.
Kim B M,Son S W,Min S K,et al,2014. Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss[J]. Nat Commun,5:4646.
Kundu P K, Allen J S,1976. Some three-dimensional characteristics of low-frequency current fluctuations near the Oregon coast[J].J Phys Oceanogr,6(2):181-199.
Kysely J,Huth R,2006. Changes in atmospheric circulation over Europe detected by objective and subjective methods[J]. Theor Appl Climatol,85(1-2):19-36.
Liu J P,Curry J A,Wang H J,et al,2012. Correction for Liu et al.,Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall[J]. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A,109(17):6781-6783.
Luo D H,Cha J,Zhong L H,et al,2015. A nonlinear multiscale interaction model for atmospheric blocking:The eddy-blocking matching mechanism[J]. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,140(683):1785-1808.
Luo D H,Xiao Y Q, Yao Y,et al,2016. Impact of Ural blocking on winter warm Arctic-cold Eurasian anomalies. Part I:blocking-induced amplification[J]. J Climate,29(11):3925-3947.
Luo D H,Yao Y,Feldstein S B,2014. Regime transition of the North Atlantic oscillation and the extreme cold event over Europe in January-February 2012[J]. Mon Wea Rev, 142(12):4735-4757.
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