天然红松林结实量预测模型的初步构建
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摘要
以露水河林业局天然红松林为对象,基于在16块固定样地中测定的677株红松单株结实量和林木因子的实测数据,应用非线性回归方法建立预测模型,并进行评价.结果表明:胸径和树高与结实量存在显著的正相关关系(P<0.01),分枝高和冠幅与结实量未达到显著相关,但与胸径和树高关系显著(P<0.01).以胸径与树高、胸径与分枝高和胸径与冠幅的不同因子组合建立结实量预测模型.通过对7个模型的R~2、均方根误差(RMSE)、赤池信息准则(AIC)、平均绝对偏差(MAE)、平均相对偏差绝对值(MRAE)等拟合优度和检验参数的比较分析,选择模型y=a×(D~2×BH)~b作为天然红松林结实量的最优模型,其预测精度为89.35%,消除异方差后的残差分布均匀;模型y=a×(D~2×H)~b和y=a×(D~2×CW)~b虽然R~2和P略高,但其平均偏差(ME)和MRAE与最优模型相差较大;以D~2作为因子建立的模型y=a×(D~2×H)~b、y=a×(D2×BH)b和y=a×(D~2×CW)~b皆表现出良好的检验效果.
Nonlinear regression method was developed for predicting nut yields for natural Korean pine( Pinus Koraiensis) based on 16 fixed sample plots and determined the data of 677 Korean pine nut yield and forest factors in Lushuihe Forestry Bureau,then evaluated the prediction model. The result indicated that the diameter at breast height( DBH) and tree height( H) had a positive relation with nut yield significantly( P <0. 01),while the branch height( BH) and crown width( CW) was not. But the BH had a significantly relationship with DBH and H( P < 0. 01). The prediction models of nut yield were established by different factors combinations,for example DBH and H,DBH and BH,DBH and CW. We compared and analyzed the goodness of fit and validation parameter such as R~2,root-mean-square error( RMSE),akaike information criterion( AIC),mean absolute error( MAE),mean relative absolute error( MRAE) in every models,selected the model y = a ×( D~2× BH)~b as the optimal model of nut yield prediction which included the prediction accuracy of 89. 35% and evenly distributed model residuals. However,the model y = a×( D~2×H)~band y = a×( D~2×CW)~b had a larger R2 and P,but they were different from the optimal model about mean variation( ME) and average relative deviation absolute value( MRAE). We found that the model y =a×( D~2×H)~b,y =a×( D~2×BH)~b and y = a×( D~2×CW)~b which made by the factor D~2 all indicated better test effect.
Nonlinear regression method was developed for predicting nut yields for natural Korean pine( Pinus Koraiensis) based on 16 fixed sample plots and determined the data of 677 Korean pine nut yield and forest factors in Lushuihe Forestry Bureau,then evaluated the prediction model. The result indicated that the diameter at breast height( DBH) and tree height( H) had a positive relation with nut yield significantly( P <0. 01),while the branch height( BH) and crown width( CW) was not. But the BH had a significantly relationship with DBH and H( P < 0. 01). The prediction models of nut yield were established by different factors combinations,for example DBH and H,DBH and BH,DBH and CW. We compared and analyzed the goodness of fit and validation parameter such as R~2,root-mean-square error( RMSE),akaike information criterion( AIC),mean absolute error( MAE),mean relative absolute error( MRAE) in every models,selected the model y = a ×( D~2× BH)~b as the optimal model of nut yield prediction which included the prediction accuracy of 89. 35% and evenly distributed model residuals. However,the model y = a×( D~2×H)~band y = a×( D~2×CW)~b had a larger R2 and P,but they were different from the optimal model about mean variation( ME) and average relative deviation absolute value( MRAE). We found that the model y =a×( D~2×H)~b,y =a×( D~2×BH)~b and y = a×( D~2×CW)~b which made by the factor D~2 all indicated better test effect.
引文
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[16]张敏.红松的材积与胸径和枝下高的关系分析[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2015.
[17]吴钢,谭立波,冯秀春,等.露水河林业局森林多目标经营规划设计[J].生态学报,2015,35(1):18-23.
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[19]张海平,李凤日,董利虎,等.基于气象因子的白桦天然林单木直径生长模型[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(6):1851-1859.
[20]李玲玲.红松人工林果实产量预估模型[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2014.
[21]张金虎.红松人工林结实的密度效应及其周期结实模型的建立[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2016.
[2]Sánchez-González M,Río M D,Ca1ellas I,et al.Distance independent tree diameter growth model for cork oak stands[J].Forest Ecology&Management,2006,225(1-3):262-270.
[3]徐振邦,代力民,陈吉泉,等.长白山红松阔叶混交林森林天然更新条件的研究[J].生态学报,2001,21(9):1413-1420.
[4]沈海龙,丛健,张鹏,等.开敞度调控对次生林林冠下红松径高生长量和地上生物量的影响[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(11):2781-2791.
[5]Tatsumi S,Owari T,Yin M,et al.Neighborhood analysis of underplanted Korean pine demography in larch plantations:Implications for uneven-aged management in northeast China[J].Forest Ecology and Management,2014,322:10-18.
[6]Owari T,Tatsumi S,Ning L,et al.Height growth of Korean pine seedlings planted under strip-cut Larch plantations in Northeast China[J].International Journal of Forestry Research,2015,2015:1-10.
[7]Kang Y H,Kim K K,Kim T W,et al.Anti-atherosclerosis effect of pine nut oil in high-cholesterol and high-fat diet fed rats and its mechanism studies in human umbilical vein endothelial cells[J].Food Science and Biotechnology,2015,24(1):323-332.
[8]Park S,Shin S,Lim Y,et al.Korean pine nut oil attenuated hepatic triacylglycerol accumulation in high-fat diet-induced obese mice[J].Nutrients,2016,8(1):59-62.
[9]Wang Z Y,Chen X Q.Functional evaluation for effective compositions in seed oil of Korean pine[J].Journal of Forestry Research,2004,15(3):215-217.
[10]Xie K,Miles E A,Calder P C.A review of the potential health benefits of pine nut oil and its characteristic fatty acid pinolenic acid[J].Journal of Functional Foods,2016,23:464-473.
[11]张振,张磊,张含国,等.铁力红松种子园无性系种子形态及营养成分变异研究[J].植物研究,2014,34(3):356-363.
[12]Dong L,Liu Z,Li F,et al.Modelling primary branch growth based on a multilevel nonlinear mixed effects model:a Pinus koraiensis plantation case study in northeast China[J].Southern Forests:a Journal of Forest Science,2015,77(3):179-190.
[13]董灵波,刘兆刚,李凤日,等.基于线性混合模型的红松人工林一级枝条大小预测模拟[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(9):2447-2456.
[14]张强.红松果材兼用林结实量和空间结构的研究[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2015.
[15]Jin X,Pukkala T,Li F,et al.Optimal management of Korean pine plantations in multifunctional forestry[J].Journal of Forestry Research,2017,28(5):1027-1037.
[16]张敏.红松的材积与胸径和枝下高的关系分析[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2015.
[17]吴钢,谭立波,冯秀春,等.露水河林业局森林多目标经营规划设计[J].生态学报,2015,35(1):18-23.
[18]赵福强,代力民,于大炮,等.长白山露水河林业局森林景观格局动态[J].应用生态学报,2010,21(5):1180-1184.
[19]张海平,李凤日,董利虎,等.基于气象因子的白桦天然林单木直径生长模型[J].应用生态学报,2017,28(6):1851-1859.
[20]李玲玲.红松人工林果实产量预估模型[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2014.
[21]张金虎.红松人工林结实的密度效应及其周期结实模型的建立[D].哈尔滨:东北林业大学,2016.