基于哑变量的闽楠天然次生林单木胸径和树高生长模型研究
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摘要
【目的】通过对闽楠天然次生林胸径和树高生长规律及生长模型的研究,为林木生长预估及林分质量提升经营措施的制订提供参考。【方法】以江西省安福县闽楠天然次生林为研究对象,通过标准地调查及树干解析等方法获取基础数据,按林木竞争压力水平从小到大将林木分为类型1、类型2和类型3,分析胸径和树高的生长规律;选取5种具有生物学意义的生长方程,根据模型拟合优度与评价指标选取最优基础生长模型,在最优模型的基础上构建含竞争类型哑变量的生长模型。【结果】(1)利用树干解析数据分析显示,30～50年为胸径生长速生期,连年生长量最大值达到0.57 cm;35～45年为树高主要生长速生期,连年生长量最大值为0.37 m。(2)胸径最优基础模型为Gompertz方程,模型R~2和预估精度分别为0.756和94.28%,构建的最优哑变量模型的R~2和预估精度分别为0.873和95.71%;树高最优基础模型为修正Weibull方程,模型R~2和预估精度分别为0.856和96.54%,构建的最优哑变量模型的R~2和预估精度分别为0.882和96.96%。(3)由构建的哑变量生长模型拟合的不同竞争类型下的胸径和树高生长曲线得知,胸径和树高总生长量均表现为类型1>类型2>类型3,类型1胸径最大生长量是类型3的1.6倍。【结论】竞争压力对闽楠胸径、树高生长均产生影响,较大的林木竞争压力不利于闽楠生长;构建含有竞争类型哑变量模型的拟合优度及预估精度均优于基础模型,有利于提高建模的精度和模型的适用性。
[Objective] The growth regularity and growth model of Phoebe bournei natural secondary forest were studied, which will provide the reference basis for its growth prediction and quality improvement management measures. [Mothod] Taking natural secondary Phoebe bournei forest in Anfu County of Jiangxi Province, eastern China as research object, the basic data were obtained by means of typical sample investigation and stem analysis. According to the level of competitive pressure, the analysic woods were divided into tree types. From low to high, they were type 1, type 2 and type 3, respectively. Growth regulation of Phoebe bournei was studied in this paper. Five kinds of theoretical growth equations with biological significance were selected, and the optimal basic model was selected according to the model goodness of fit and evaluation indexes. On the basis of the optimal model, the growth model of dummy variables with competition types was constructed. [Result] (1) The stem analysis data showed that 30th-50th year was the main fast growing period of DBH, the maximum current annual growth was 0.57 cm. while that 35th-45th year was the fast growing period of tree height, the maximum current annual growth was 0.37 m.(2) The optimal basic model of DBH was Gompertz equation, the value of R~2 was 0.756 and the forecasting accuracy was 94.28%, and the value of R~2 and the forecasting accuracy of the optimal dummy variable model were 0.873, 95.71%, respectively. The optimal basic model of tree height was the modified Weibull equation, the value of R~2 was 0.856 and the forecasting accuracy was 96.54%, and the value of R~2 and the forecasting accuracy of the optimal dummy variable model was 0.882, 96.96%,respectively.(3) According to the growth curves of DBH and tree height under different competition types fitted by the constructed dummy variable growth model, the total increment of DBH and tree height showed that type 1 > type 2 > type 3, and the maximum DBH increment of type 1 was 1.6 times of type 3.[Conclusion] The competitive pressure has an effect on the growth of DBH and tree height of Phoebe bournei. The goodness of fit and estimation accuracy of dummy variable model with competition type were better than the basic model, which is beneficial to improve the accuracy and applicability of the model.
[Objective] The growth regularity and growth model of Phoebe bournei natural secondary forest were studied, which will provide the reference basis for its growth prediction and quality improvement management measures. [Mothod] Taking natural secondary Phoebe bournei forest in Anfu County of Jiangxi Province, eastern China as research object, the basic data were obtained by means of typical sample investigation and stem analysis. According to the level of competitive pressure, the analysic woods were divided into tree types. From low to high, they were type 1, type 2 and type 3, respectively. Growth regulation of Phoebe bournei was studied in this paper. Five kinds of theoretical growth equations with biological significance were selected, and the optimal basic model was selected according to the model goodness of fit and evaluation indexes. On the basis of the optimal model, the growth model of dummy variables with competition types was constructed. [Result] (1) The stem analysis data showed that 30th-50th year was the main fast growing period of DBH, the maximum current annual growth was 0.57 cm. while that 35th-45th year was the fast growing period of tree height, the maximum current annual growth was 0.37 m.(2) The optimal basic model of DBH was Gompertz equation, the value of R~2 was 0.756 and the forecasting accuracy was 94.28%, and the value of R~2 and the forecasting accuracy of the optimal dummy variable model were 0.873, 95.71%, respectively. The optimal basic model of tree height was the modified Weibull equation, the value of R~2 was 0.856 and the forecasting accuracy was 96.54%, and the value of R~2 and the forecasting accuracy of the optimal dummy variable model was 0.882, 96.96%,respectively.(3) According to the growth curves of DBH and tree height under different competition types fitted by the constructed dummy variable growth model, the total increment of DBH and tree height showed that type 1 > type 2 > type 3, and the maximum DBH increment of type 1 was 1.6 times of type 3.[Conclusion] The competitive pressure has an effect on the growth of DBH and tree height of Phoebe bournei. The goodness of fit and estimation accuracy of dummy variable model with competition type were better than the basic model, which is beneficial to improve the accuracy and applicability of the model.
引文
[1]任瑞娟,亢新刚,杨华.天然林单木生长模型研究进展[J].西北林学院学报,2008,23(6):203-206.Ren R J,Kang X G,Yang H.Review on growth model of individual-tree in natural forest[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2008,23(6):203-206.
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[3]Mabvurira D,Miina J.Individual-tree growth and mortality models for Eucalyptus grandis(Hill)Maiden plantations in Zimbabwe[J].Forest Ecology&Management,2002,161(1/3):231-245.
[4]林丽平,徐期瑚,罗勇,等.广东省樟树立木生长规律和生长模型研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2018,38(6):23-29.Lin L P,Xu Q H,Luo Y,et al.Study on the growth laws and models of Cinnamomum Camphora in Guangdong Province[J].Journal of Central South University of Forestry&Technology,2018,38(6):23-29.
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[6]Coomes D A,Allen R B.Effects of size,competition and altitude on tree growth[J].Journal of Ecology,2007,95(5):1084-1097.
[7]王金池,邓华锋,冉啟香,等.基于哑变量的云南松蓄积生长模型[J].森林与环境学报,2017,37(4):453-458.Wang J C,Deng H F,Ran Q X,et al.The volume growth model of Pinus yunnanensis based on dummy variables[J].Journal of Forest and Environment,2017,37(4):453-458.
[8]吴大荣.福建罗卜岩闽楠(Phoebe bournei)林中优势树种生态位研究[J].生态学报,2001,21(5):851-855.Wu D R.A study on the niche of dominant species in Phoebe bournei forests in Luoboyan Nature Reserve of Fujian[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2001,21(5):851-855.
[9]吴大荣,朱政德.福建省罗卜岩自然保护区闽楠种群结构和空间分布格局初步研究[J].林业科学,2003,39(1):23-30.Wu D R,Zhu Z D.Preliminary study on structure and spatial distribution pattern of Phoebe bournei in Luoboyan Nature Reserve in Fujian Province[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2003,39(1):23-30.
[10]游晓庆,彭诗涛,郭孝玉,等.闽楠天然次生林林分空间结构研究[J].江西农业大学学报,2016,38(4):660-667.You X Q,Peng S T,Guo X Y,et al.A study on the spatial structure of natural secondary Phoebe bournei forest[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis,2016,38(4):660-667.
[11]范繁荣.闽楠群落种间关联性的灰色系统理论分析[J].浙江林学院学报,2008,25(1):33-36.Fan F R.Study of inter-specific correlation of Phoebe bournei communities by grey systems[J].Journal of Zhejiang Forestry College,2008,25(1):33-36.
[12]李雪云,潘萍,臧颢,等.闽楠天然次生林自然更新的影响因子研究[J].林业科学研究,2017,30(5):701-708.Li X Y,Pan P,Zang H,et al.Study on factors affecting natural regeneration of natural secondary Phoebe bournei forest[J].Forest Research,2017,30(5):701-708.
[13]江香梅,肖复明,叶金山,等.闽楠天然林与人工林生长特性研究[J].江西农业大学学报,2009,31(6):1049-1054.Jiang X M,Xiao F M,Ye J S,et al.A study on the growth characteristics of Phoebe bournei in natural forest and plantation stands[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis,2009,31(6):1049-1054.
[14]陈东阳.闽楠人工林与天然林生长特点比较[J].福建林业科技,2012,39(3):24-28.Chen D Y.Contrast of growth characteristics of Phoebe bournei artificial forest and natural forest[J].Journal of Fujian Forestry Science and Technology,2012,39(3):24-28.
[15]董点,林天喜,唐景毅,等.紫椴生物量分配格局及异速生长方程[J].北京林业大学学报,2014,36(4):54-63.Dong D,Lin T X,Tang J Y,et al.Biomass allocation patterns and allometric models of Tilia amurensis[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2014,36(4):54-63.
[16]钱升平,吕飞舟,边更战,等.基于简单竞争指标的青冈栎次生林林木竞争单元构建[J].林业资源管理,2016(2):56-61.Qian S P,LüF Z,Bian G Z,et al.Structure of tree competition unit of Cyclobalanopsis glauca secondary forest based on simple competition index[J].Forest Resources Management,2016(2):56-61.
[17]唐守正,郎奎建,李海奎.统计与生物数学模型计算:ForStat教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.Tang S Z,Lang K J,Li H K.Statistic and biometric model calculation:ForStat course[M].Beijing:Science Press,2009.
[18]李忠国,孙晓梅,陈东升,等.基于哑变量的日本落叶松生长模型研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(8):69-74.Li Z G,Sun X M,Chen D S,et al.Dummy variables model of increment of Larix kaempferi[J].Journal of Northwest A&FUniversity(Natural Science Edition),2011,39(8):69-74.
[19]曾伟生,唐守正.立木生物量方程的优度评价和精度分析[J].林业科学,2011,47(11):106-113.Zeng W S,Tang S Z.Goodness evaluation and precision analysis of tree biomass equations[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2011,47(11):106-113.
[20]张炜,何兴炳,唐森强,等.四川桢楠生长特性与分布[J].林业科技开发,2012,26(5):38-41.Zhang W,He X B,Tang S Q,et al.Study on the growth characteristics and distribution of Phoebe zhennan in Sichuan[J].China Forestry Science and Technology,2012,26(5):38-41.
[21]龙汉利,张炜,宋鹏,等.四川桢楠生长初步分析[J].四川林业科技,2011,32(4):89-91.Long H L,Zhang W,Song P,et al.An analysis of the growth of Phoebe zhennan in Sichuan[J].Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science&Thecnology,2011,32(4):89-91.
[22]刘发林.南方集体林区木荷次生林生长规律及经营技术研究[D].长沙:中南林业科技大学,2013.Liu F L.Research on growth law and management technique of Schima superb in southern collective forest region[D].Changsha:Central South University of Forestry and Technology,2013.
[23]唐继新,麻静,贾宏炎,等.南亚热带珍稀濒危树种格木生长规律研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2015,35(7):37-44.Tang J X,Ma J,Jia H Y,et al.Study on the growth law of a rare and endangered tree species of Erythrophleum fordii in south subtropical area of China[J].Journal of Central South University of Forestry&Technology,2015,35(7):37-44.
[24]赵俊卉,亢新刚,张慧东,等.长白山主要针叶树种胸径和树高变异系数与竞争因子的关系[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(8):1832-1837.Zhao J H,Kang X G,Zhang H D,et al.Relationships between coefficient of variation of diameter and height and competition index of main coniferous trees in Changbai Mountains[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2009,20(8):1832-1837.
[25]胡焕香,佘济云,李俊,等.湖北桂花林场檫木次生林单木生长模型的研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2013,33(4):61-65.Hu H X,She J Y,Li J,et al.Study on individual tree growth model of Sassafras tsumu secondary forest on Osmanthus Forest Farm in Hubei Province[J].Journal of Central South University of Forestry&Technology,2013,33(4):61-65.
[26]朱光玉,罗小浪.湖南栎类天然混交林优势木树高曲线哑变量模型研究[J].林业资源管理,2017(4):22-29.Zhu G Y,Luo X L.Dominant height-diameter models for mixed Quercus forest based on dummy variable[J].Forest Resources Management,2017(4):22-29.
[27]沈国舫,翟明普.森林培育学[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2013.Shen G F,Zhai M P.Silvicuture[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2013.
[2]Cao Q V.Prediction of annual diameter growth and survival for individual trees from periodic measurements[J].Forest Science,2000,46(1):127-131.
[3]Mabvurira D,Miina J.Individual-tree growth and mortality models for Eucalyptus grandis(Hill)Maiden plantations in Zimbabwe[J].Forest Ecology&Management,2002,161(1/3):231-245.
[4]林丽平,徐期瑚,罗勇,等.广东省樟树立木生长规律和生长模型研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2018,38(6):23-29.Lin L P,Xu Q H,Luo Y,et al.Study on the growth laws and models of Cinnamomum Camphora in Guangdong Province[J].Journal of Central South University of Forestry&Technology,2018,38(6):23-29.
[5]Canham C D,Papaik M J,Uriarte M,et al.Neighborhood analyses of canopy tree competition along environmental gradients in New England forests[J].Ecological Applications,2006,16(2):540-554.
[6]Coomes D A,Allen R B.Effects of size,competition and altitude on tree growth[J].Journal of Ecology,2007,95(5):1084-1097.
[7]王金池,邓华锋,冉啟香,等.基于哑变量的云南松蓄积生长模型[J].森林与环境学报,2017,37(4):453-458.Wang J C,Deng H F,Ran Q X,et al.The volume growth model of Pinus yunnanensis based on dummy variables[J].Journal of Forest and Environment,2017,37(4):453-458.
[8]吴大荣.福建罗卜岩闽楠(Phoebe bournei)林中优势树种生态位研究[J].生态学报,2001,21(5):851-855.Wu D R.A study on the niche of dominant species in Phoebe bournei forests in Luoboyan Nature Reserve of Fujian[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2001,21(5):851-855.
[9]吴大荣,朱政德.福建省罗卜岩自然保护区闽楠种群结构和空间分布格局初步研究[J].林业科学,2003,39(1):23-30.Wu D R,Zhu Z D.Preliminary study on structure and spatial distribution pattern of Phoebe bournei in Luoboyan Nature Reserve in Fujian Province[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2003,39(1):23-30.
[10]游晓庆,彭诗涛,郭孝玉,等.闽楠天然次生林林分空间结构研究[J].江西农业大学学报,2016,38(4):660-667.You X Q,Peng S T,Guo X Y,et al.A study on the spatial structure of natural secondary Phoebe bournei forest[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis,2016,38(4):660-667.
[11]范繁荣.闽楠群落种间关联性的灰色系统理论分析[J].浙江林学院学报,2008,25(1):33-36.Fan F R.Study of inter-specific correlation of Phoebe bournei communities by grey systems[J].Journal of Zhejiang Forestry College,2008,25(1):33-36.
[12]李雪云,潘萍,臧颢,等.闽楠天然次生林自然更新的影响因子研究[J].林业科学研究,2017,30(5):701-708.Li X Y,Pan P,Zang H,et al.Study on factors affecting natural regeneration of natural secondary Phoebe bournei forest[J].Forest Research,2017,30(5):701-708.
[13]江香梅,肖复明,叶金山,等.闽楠天然林与人工林生长特性研究[J].江西农业大学学报,2009,31(6):1049-1054.Jiang X M,Xiao F M,Ye J S,et al.A study on the growth characteristics of Phoebe bournei in natural forest and plantation stands[J].Acta Agriculturae Universitatis Jiangxiensis,2009,31(6):1049-1054.
[14]陈东阳.闽楠人工林与天然林生长特点比较[J].福建林业科技,2012,39(3):24-28.Chen D Y.Contrast of growth characteristics of Phoebe bournei artificial forest and natural forest[J].Journal of Fujian Forestry Science and Technology,2012,39(3):24-28.
[15]董点,林天喜,唐景毅,等.紫椴生物量分配格局及异速生长方程[J].北京林业大学学报,2014,36(4):54-63.Dong D,Lin T X,Tang J Y,et al.Biomass allocation patterns and allometric models of Tilia amurensis[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,2014,36(4):54-63.
[16]钱升平,吕飞舟,边更战,等.基于简单竞争指标的青冈栎次生林林木竞争单元构建[J].林业资源管理,2016(2):56-61.Qian S P,LüF Z,Bian G Z,et al.Structure of tree competition unit of Cyclobalanopsis glauca secondary forest based on simple competition index[J].Forest Resources Management,2016(2):56-61.
[17]唐守正,郎奎建,李海奎.统计与生物数学模型计算:ForStat教程[M].北京:科学出版社,2009.Tang S Z,Lang K J,Li H K.Statistic and biometric model calculation:ForStat course[M].Beijing:Science Press,2009.
[18]李忠国,孙晓梅,陈东升,等.基于哑变量的日本落叶松生长模型研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(8):69-74.Li Z G,Sun X M,Chen D S,et al.Dummy variables model of increment of Larix kaempferi[J].Journal of Northwest A&FUniversity(Natural Science Edition),2011,39(8):69-74.
[19]曾伟生,唐守正.立木生物量方程的优度评价和精度分析[J].林业科学,2011,47(11):106-113.Zeng W S,Tang S Z.Goodness evaluation and precision analysis of tree biomass equations[J].Scientia Silvae Sinicae,2011,47(11):106-113.
[20]张炜,何兴炳,唐森强,等.四川桢楠生长特性与分布[J].林业科技开发,2012,26(5):38-41.Zhang W,He X B,Tang S Q,et al.Study on the growth characteristics and distribution of Phoebe zhennan in Sichuan[J].China Forestry Science and Technology,2012,26(5):38-41.
[21]龙汉利,张炜,宋鹏,等.四川桢楠生长初步分析[J].四川林业科技,2011,32(4):89-91.Long H L,Zhang W,Song P,et al.An analysis of the growth of Phoebe zhennan in Sichuan[J].Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science&Thecnology,2011,32(4):89-91.
[22]刘发林.南方集体林区木荷次生林生长规律及经营技术研究[D].长沙:中南林业科技大学,2013.Liu F L.Research on growth law and management technique of Schima superb in southern collective forest region[D].Changsha:Central South University of Forestry and Technology,2013.
[23]唐继新,麻静,贾宏炎,等.南亚热带珍稀濒危树种格木生长规律研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2015,35(7):37-44.Tang J X,Ma J,Jia H Y,et al.Study on the growth law of a rare and endangered tree species of Erythrophleum fordii in south subtropical area of China[J].Journal of Central South University of Forestry&Technology,2015,35(7):37-44.
[24]赵俊卉,亢新刚,张慧东,等.长白山主要针叶树种胸径和树高变异系数与竞争因子的关系[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(8):1832-1837.Zhao J H,Kang X G,Zhang H D,et al.Relationships between coefficient of variation of diameter and height and competition index of main coniferous trees in Changbai Mountains[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2009,20(8):1832-1837.
[25]胡焕香,佘济云,李俊,等.湖北桂花林场檫木次生林单木生长模型的研究[J].中南林业科技大学学报,2013,33(4):61-65.Hu H X,She J Y,Li J,et al.Study on individual tree growth model of Sassafras tsumu secondary forest on Osmanthus Forest Farm in Hubei Province[J].Journal of Central South University of Forestry&Technology,2013,33(4):61-65.
[26]朱光玉,罗小浪.湖南栎类天然混交林优势木树高曲线哑变量模型研究[J].林业资源管理,2017(4):22-29.Zhu G Y,Luo X L.Dominant height-diameter models for mixed Quercus forest based on dummy variable[J].Forest Resources Management,2017(4):22-29.
[27]沈国舫,翟明普.森林培育学[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2013.Shen G F,Zhai M P.Silvicuture[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2013.