摘要
地下厂房的开挖过程受多种不确定因素的影响,导致实际开挖进度延误,初始进度计划无法合理指导实际施工。为此,基于贝叶斯理论构建地下厂房开挖进度动态预测模型,利用施工样本信息修正先验信息得到考虑不确定因素影响的后验信息,实现对地下厂房开挖剩余工期的动态预测。最后通过工程算例,验证了该预测方法的可行性,且根据计算得到的动态完工概率可为决策者评估现阶段进度执行情况,调整下一阶段进度目标提供一定依据。
The excavation process of underground powerhouse is affected by many uncertain factors,which leads to the delay of the actual excavation progress,and the initial schedule cannot guide the actual construction reasonably. Therefore,the dynamic prediction model of underground powerhouse excavation progress based on Bayesian theory was proposed. The construction sample information was used to modify the prior information to obtain the posterior information considering the influence of uncertain factors, and the dynamic prediction of the remaining construction period of the underground powerhouse excavation was realized. Finally,an engineering example was given to verify the feasibility of the method,moreover, the calculated dynamic completion probability could provide a certain basis for decision makers to evaluate the current progress implementation and adjust the progress target in the next stage.
引文
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