区域农业生产结构对沼气发展的影响——基于2014年全国31省平行数据的分析
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摘要
为了解析近年来沼气产业发展缓慢的原因,基于2014年全国31省(直辖市)的平行数据用多元线性回归模型分析了区域农业生产结构对人均沼气量的影响。结果表明粮食作物播种面积人均沼气量呈显著的负相关关系,意味着沼气产业在秸秆丰富的产粮区还有待发展,非粮作物播种比重增加将有利于沼气产业发展。牛的饲养数与人均沼气量呈显著的正相关关系(相关系数:0.293),沼气在养牛业中应用得较好;但猪的饲养数与人均沼气量相关性不显著,表明猪粪沼气化处理不平衡;因为养羊业目前以放牧为主,并受技术条件的限制,沼气在养羊业未得到充分推广。在国内关于沼气的入户调查的结果表明农户利用沼气的概率与农作物播种面积、牲畜和家禽存栏数呈正相关关系;在种植业区或半农半牧地区,农户使用沼气效率更好。本研究的结果与文献中入户调查结果相似。
For analyzing the reason for the plateau of biogas industry in recent years, the paper used multiple regression model to analyze the effect of regional agriculture structure on the capita biogas based on the panel data of 31 Chinese provinces in 2014. The result indicated that there was a significant negative correlation between the grain sowing area and capita biogas. It was difficult to promote biogas in grain production area, and the rise on the ratio of non-grain crop sowing area in the plantation structure was beneficial to develop biogas industry.The significant correlation existed between the total number of cattle and capita biogas(Correlation coefficient: 0.293). It implies that biogas was applied efficiently on cattle farming. The number of pigs had no significant correlation with biogas. This means that biogas was not used efficiently to deal with pig manure for imbalanced technology development in different provinces. The application of biogas on sheep farming was restricted by current technology and management condition. The results are also similar to the literature review based on questionnaire.
For analyzing the reason for the plateau of biogas industry in recent years, the paper used multiple regression model to analyze the effect of regional agriculture structure on the capita biogas based on the panel data of 31 Chinese provinces in 2014. The result indicated that there was a significant negative correlation between the grain sowing area and capita biogas. It was difficult to promote biogas in grain production area, and the rise on the ratio of non-grain crop sowing area in the plantation structure was beneficial to develop biogas industry.The significant correlation existed between the total number of cattle and capita biogas(Correlation coefficient: 0.293). It implies that biogas was applied efficiently on cattle farming. The number of pigs had no significant correlation with biogas. This means that biogas was not used efficiently to deal with pig manure for imbalanced technology development in different provinces. The application of biogas on sheep farming was restricted by current technology and management condition. The results are also similar to the literature review based on questionnaire.
引文
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[3]国家统计局农村社会经济调查司.中国农村统计年鉴2015[M].北京:中国统计出版.2015.
[4]许亚男,董海荣,韩婷,等.河北省农户用户沼气利用行为影响因素分析[J].中国沼气,2016,34(4):70-73.
[5]蔡亚庆,仇焕广,王金霞,等.我国农村户用沼气使用效率及其影响因素研究:基于全国五省调研的实证分析[J].中国软科学,2012(8):58-64.
[6]秦晓萍.锡林郭勒南部户用沼气推广因素研究[D].北京:中国农业科学院,2014.
[7]尚杰,尹晓宁.中国化肥面源污染现状及其减量化研究[J]生态经济,2016,32(5):196-199.
[8]张雅丽,王建军.基于NDVI的陕北黄土高原丘陵沟壑区植被覆盖变化及其驱动力分析:以志丹县为例[J].林业经济,2016(12):21-25,40.
[9]JONG Uk L,HYUNG C C,YOUNG M W,SUNG K J.AMultiple Regression Model Based Short-term Wind Power Forecasting Using Information from Nearby Wind Farms[C].International Conference on Power and Energy Systems Lecture Notes in Information Technology,2012,13:474-478.
[10]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴2015[M].中国统计出版社.2015.
[11]李布青,代学猛,代永志,等.农作物秸秆厌氧发酵制沼气工程设计研究[J].安徽农业科学.2015,43(9):268-270.
[12]粱文俊,刘佳,刘春敬,等.农作物秸秆综合利用技术[M].北京:化学工业出版社.2015:96-97.
[13]张昌爱,沈玉文,林海涛,等.草莓大棚内沼气池的生态效益分析[J].山东农业科学.2012,44(10):84-88.
[14]漆军,朱利群,陈利根,等.苏、浙、皖秸秆处理行为分析[J].资源科学.2016,38(6):1099-1108.
[15]张彤.羊粪厌氧消化影响因素分析及产气特性研究[D].咸阳:西北农林科技大学,2014.
[16]胡启春,汤哓玉,宁睿婷,等.与生猪产业发展联动的中国沼气工程建设现状分析[J].农业工程学报.2015,31(8):1-6.
[17]胡启春,李谦,潘科,等.适应生猪优势区域建设的沼气工程发展分析[J].中国沼气.2009,27(4):16-19.