中国互联网企业创业初期成功影响因素研究
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摘要
在回溯国内外企业成功与失败影响因素研究文献的基础上,以200家中国互联网企业为代表,深入研究了影响互联网初创企业成功的主要因素,从中选出有代表性、容易进行客观判断的14项影响因素进行Logistic回归。结果表明,5项因素显著影响中国互联网企业初创成功,其中,领域先驱企业、BAT体系或获得BAT投资等因素对企业具有正向影响;成立后马上获得第一笔投资、"海归"创始人以及市场分散程度等因素具有负向影响。最后,对显著影响因素进行讨论,进而提出关于市场与产品类型选择、互联网产品发展战略以及融资与战略合作关系等方面建议。
We review existing literature on factors affecting success and failure of new technology ventures and expand on existing research with an analysis of 200 Chinese internet companies,100 of which were representative for successful ventures and 100 of which representative for failed companies?Based on this data we establish a research framework within which we identify and analyze 14 impact factors that are measurable,factual,and can be confirmed by external observers.Evaluation of success factors was done for all 200 companies.We determine the impact and significance of factors by fitting a Logistic regression model to the collected data.Out of the 14 factors,we show 5 to be significant at 95%confidence:Being a first mover and investments by Alibaba,Baidu or Tencent(BAT)are shown to have positive impact whereas having a returnee founder,attempting a first funding round after less than one year of operation and high market fragmentation have a negative impact.The paper closes with a discussion of the significant impact factors and suggestions for start-ups as well as venture capital firms.
We review existing literature on factors affecting success and failure of new technology ventures and expand on existing research with an analysis of 200 Chinese internet companies,100 of which were representative for successful ventures and 100 of which representative for failed companies?Based on this data we establish a research framework within which we identify and analyze 14 impact factors that are measurable,factual,and can be confirmed by external observers.Evaluation of success factors was done for all 200 companies.We determine the impact and significance of factors by fitting a Logistic regression model to the collected data.Out of the 14 factors,we show 5 to be significant at 95%confidence:Being a first mover and investments by Alibaba,Baidu or Tencent(BAT)are shown to have positive impact whereas having a returnee founder,attempting a first funding round after less than one year of operation and high market fragmentation have a negative impact.The paper closes with a discussion of the significant impact factors and suggestions for start-ups as well as venture capital firms.
引文
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[37]CASSAR G.Industry and startup experience on entrepreneur forecast performance in new firms[J].Journal of Business Venturing,2014,29(1):137-151.
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[2]MEEKER M.Internet trends 2018[R].Kleiner Perkins,2018.
[3]中国科学技术发展战略研究院,中国科技金融促进会,上海市科学学研究所.中国科技金融生态年度观察[R].上海,2017.
[4]李惠.2017上半年基金统计分析[R].投中信息研究院,2017.
[5]DELOITTE,投中信息.中美独角兽研究报告[R].2017.
[6]HISRICH D R.Entrepreneurship and intrapreneurship:methods for creating new companies that have an impact on the econom.renaissance of an area[A].Entrepreneurship,intrapreneurship,and venture capital:the foundation of economic renaissance[M].Lexington Books,1986:71-104.
[7]SANDBERG W R,W HOFER C.Improving new venture performance:the role of strategy,industry structure,and the entrepreneur[J].Journal of Business Venturing,1987,2(1):5-28.
[8]B ROURE J,H KEELEY R.Predictors of success in new technology based ventures[J].Journal of Business Venturing,1990,5(4):201-220.
[9]FEESER H R,WILLARD G E.Founding strategy and performance:a comparison of high and low growth high tech firms[J].Strategic Management,1990,11(2):87-98.
[10]CHRISMAN J J,BAUERSCHMIDT A,HOFER C W.The determinants of new venture performance:an extended model[J].Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice,1998,23(1):5-29.
[11]WATSON K,HOGARTH-SCOTT S,WILSON N.Small business start-ups:success factors and support implications[J].International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior&Research,1998,4(3):217-38.
[12]SONG M,PODOYNITSYNA K,BIJ H V D,et al.Success factors in new ventures:a meta-analysis[J].Journal of Product Innovation Management,2008,25(1):7-27.
[13]何瑛,吕高宇,周慧琴.腾讯资本驱动型成长路径及关键成功因素分析[J].财务与会计,2016(17):16-19.
[14]张娜娜,付清芬,王砚羽,等.互联网企业创新子系统协同机制及关键成功因素[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2014(3):77-85.
[15]陆雅铃.互联网企业的关键成功因素研究[D].重庆:西南政法大学,2012.
[16]NHUNG V T H,WENSONG Z,PANHUBER C.Strategic considerations for the formation of internet platform products[A].2015International Conference on Logistics,Informatics and Service Sciences(LISS)[C].Barcelona,Spain:IEEE,2016.
[17]CHEN X,ZOU H T,WANG D.How do new ventures grow?firm capabilities,growth strategies and performance[J].International Journal of Research in Marketing,2009,26(4):294-303.
[18]BASU,ANURADHA.Prior startup experience,social networks,and transnational entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley[A].Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad,2018.
[19]WADHWA V,FREEMAN R,RISSING B.Education and tech entrepreneurship[R].Kauffman Foundation,2008.
[20]BURTON M,SΦRENSEN J B,BECKMAN C M.Coming from good stock:career histories and new venture formation[J].Social Structure and Organizations Revisited,1998,19:229-262.
[21]牛芳,杨俊,薛红志.先前工作经验、创业机会与新技术企业绩效---一个交互效应模型及启示[J].管理学报,2011,8(1):116-125.
[22]创业邦研究中心.独家解读中国30岁以下创业新生代[J].创业邦,2014(1):60-61.
[23]伍晓鸣.30岁的人最适宜创业[J].职业法律天地,2008(1).
[24]DENG S,WANG X,ALON I.Framework for female entrepreneurship in China[J].Business and Emerging Markets,2011,3(1).
[25]刘梦羽.中国女性创业报告[R].中国企业家,2017.
[26]FAN R E,CHANG K W,et al.Liblinear:a library for large linear classification[J].Journal of Machine Learning Research,2008,9(5):1871-1874.
[27]SPENCE M.Cost reduction,competition,and industry performance[J].Econometrica,1984,52(1):101.
[28]IT桔子数据库.IT桔子雷达-投资机构[EB/OL].http://http://radar.itjuzi.com/investment.
[29]中国教育在线.中国出国留学人数变化统计[EB/OL].http://www.eol.cn.
[30]全球化智库(CCG).中国留学发展报告[M].北京:中国社科文献出版社,2016.
[31]罗惠文,李睿如.大学毕业生自主创业分析[R].麦可思研究院,2011.
[32]全球化智库,智联招聘.2017年中国海归就业创业调查报告[R].2017.
[33]THIEL P,MASTERS B.Zero to one[M].Crown Business,2014:83-85..
[34]IRESEARCH CONSULTING GROUP.China's internet industry insights and trends report[R].Beijing:iResearch China,2016.
[35]胡世良.互联网公司失败原因剖析[J].中国新通信,2011(17):48-53.
[36]金建华.BAT投资的生态链[J].上海国资,2015(1):50-51.
[37]CASSAR G.Industry and startup experience on entrepreneur forecast performance in new firms[J].Journal of Business Venturing,2014,29(1):137-151.
[38]MEEHL E P.Clinical versus statistical prediction:a theoretical analysis and a review of the evidence[M].University of Minnesota Press,1954.
[39]LI S,SCHULZE W,LI Z.Plunging into the sea,again?a study of serial entrepreneurship in China[J].Asia Pacific Journal of Management,2009,26(4):667-680.
[40]胡君辰,曲明磊,那一牧.创业企业家教育背景与企业绩效的关系---基于厦门市创业园的实证研究[A].第三届海峡两岸企业组织与管理学术研讨会[C].2009.