双边投资协定促进了中国对外直接投资吗——兼论对中美BIT谈判的启示
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摘要
当前,双边投资协定(BIT)对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响备受国内外学者及各国政府的关注。文章选取2003～2016年与中国签订BIT的132个国家的宏观经济数据及中国双边投资协定数据,运用倾向得分匹配和双重差分模型进行实证检验,结果发现BIT的签订且生效对中国OFDI具有显著的正向影响,BIT重新修订对中国OFDI具有显著的负向影响; BIT签订和BIT文本质量可能会促进中国OFDI,但未能通过稳健性检验。在此基础上提出:中国一方面要抓紧研究BIT条款设计的新趋势;另一方面,要继续全面深化改革与扩大对外开放,妥善处理中美贸易摩擦,促成中美BIT的签订与生效。
At present, the impact of bilateral investment treaty( BIT) on China's outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) attracts much attention from the scholars and governments at home and abroad. Based on the macroeconomic data of 132 countries that signed BIT with China and the data of China's BIT from 2003 to 2016, the paper conducts an empirical analysis with Propensity Score Matching( PSM) and Difference-in-Differences( DID)models. The results show that the signing and entry into force of BIT has a significant positive impact on China's OFDI but the revision of BIT is significantly and negatively related with China's OFDI. The signing of BIT and its text quality may promote China's OFDI but failed to pass the robust test. On this basis, the paper puts forward that on one hand, China should pay close attention to the new trends in the study of BIT 's clause design. On the other hand, China should take the opportunity of commemorating the 40 th anniversary of reform and opening up to continue to comprehensively deepen reforms and expand opening-up in an all-round way, improve its own institutional environment, properly handle trade war between China and US, and promote the signing and entry into force of Sino-US BIT.
At present, the impact of bilateral investment treaty( BIT) on China's outward foreign direct investment( OFDI) attracts much attention from the scholars and governments at home and abroad. Based on the macroeconomic data of 132 countries that signed BIT with China and the data of China's BIT from 2003 to 2016, the paper conducts an empirical analysis with Propensity Score Matching( PSM) and Difference-in-Differences( DID)models. The results show that the signing and entry into force of BIT has a significant positive impact on China's OFDI but the revision of BIT is significantly and negatively related with China's OFDI. The signing of BIT and its text quality may promote China's OFDI but failed to pass the robust test. On this basis, the paper puts forward that on one hand, China should pay close attention to the new trends in the study of BIT 's clause design. On the other hand, China should take the opportunity of commemorating the 40 th anniversary of reform and opening up to continue to comprehensively deepen reforms and expand opening-up in an all-round way, improve its own institutional environment, properly handle trade war between China and US, and promote the signing and entry into force of Sino-US BIT.
引文
陈伟光,郭晴. 2016.中国对“一带一路”沿线国家投资的潜力估计与区位选择[J].宏观经济研究(09):148-161.
邓新明,许洋. 2015.双边投资协定对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于制度环境门槛效应的分析[J].世界经济研究(3):10.
董有德,赵星星. 2014.自由贸易协定能够促进我国企业的对外直接投资吗——基于跨国公司知识-资本模型的经验研究[J].国际经贸探索,30(3):44-61.
姜逸倩,申俊喜. 2013.中国ODI在金砖国家的区位选择研究——基于传统经济因素和制度因素[J].国际商务研究(02):25-33.
李平,孟寒,黎艳. 2014.双边投资协定对中国对外直接投资的实证分析——基于制度距离的视角[J].世界经济研究(12):53-58.
刘晶. 2017.双边投资协定与FDI:研究进展述评及展望[J].中南财经政法大学学报(1):123-131.
刘晓丹,衣长军. 2017.中国对外直接投资微观绩效研究——基于PSM的实证分析[J].世界经济研究(3):68-77.
毛其淋,许家云. 2014.中国企业对外直接投资是否促进了企业创新[J].世界经济(8):98-125.
王红英,朱子阳. 2016.迈向全球投资治理框架:中国作为G20东道国的机会[J].国际经济评论(1):146-148.
杨宏恩,孟庆强,王晶,李浩. 2016.双边投资协定对中国对外直接投资的影响:基于投资协定异质性的视角[J].管理世界(4):24-36.
杨永聪,李正辉. 2018.经济政策不确定性驱动了中国OFDI的增长吗——基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计[J].国际贸易问题(3):138-148.
张中元. 2013.东道国制度质量、双边投资协议与中国对外直接投资——基于面板门限回归模型(PTR)的实证分析[J].南方经济,31(04):49-62.
宗芳宇,路江涌,武常岐. 2012.双边投资协定、制度环境和企业对外直接投资区位选择[J].经济研究(5):71-82.
Aisbett,Emma. 2009. Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment:Correlation versus Causation[J]. Mpra Paper,(283140):395-437.
Asiedu E,Jin Y,Nandwa B. 2009. Does foreign aid mitigate the adverse effect of expropriation risk on foreign direct investment?[J]. Working Papers,78(2):268-275.
Bekker P,Ogawa A. 2013. The Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaty(BIT)Proliferation on Demand for Investment Insurance:Reassessing Political Risk Insurance After the'BIT Bang'[J]. ICSID Review,28(2):314-350.
Bento L. 2013. Time to Join the"BIT Club"? Promoting and Protecting Brazilian Investments Abroad[J]. American Review of International Arbitration,24(2):271-324.
Berger A. 2008. China and the global governance of foreign direct investment:the emerging liberal bilateral investment treaty approach[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing.
Berger A,Busse M,Nunnenkamp P,et al. 2011. More stringent BIT,less ambiguous effects on FDI? Not a bit![J]. Economics Letters,112(3):270-272.
Berger A,Busse M,Nunnenkamp P,et al. 2013. Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box[J]. International Economics and Economic Policy,10(2):247-275.
Bonnitcha J. 2012. The economics of investment treaty protection and the evolving empirical research agenda[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing.
Büthe T,Milner H V. 2014. Foreign Direct Investment and Institutional Diversity in Trade Agreements:Credibility,Commitment,and Economic Flows in the Developing World,1971-2007[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,66(4):88-122.
Chaisse J,Bellak C. 2011. Do Bilateral Investment Treaties Promote Foreign Direct Investment? Preliminary Reflections on a New Methodology[J]. Transnational Corporations Review,3(4):3-10.
Colen L,Damiaan P,Andrea G. 2014. What Type of FDI is Attracted by Bilateral Investment Treaties?[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,1-48.
Dunning,John H. 1993. The Theory of transnational corporations[M]. Routledge.
Egger P,Merlo V. 2012. BIT Bite:An Anatomy of the Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Multinational Firms[J].The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,114(4):1240-1266.
Egger P,Pfaffermayr M. 2004. The impact of bilateral investment treaties on foreign direct investment[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,32(4):788-804.
Fearon,J. D. 1997. Signaling Foreign Policy Interests:Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs[J]. Journal of Conflict Resolution,41(1):68-90.
Haftel,Y. Z.,&Thompson,A.(2013). Delayed Ratification:The Domestic Fate of Bilateral Investment Treaties. International Organization,67(02),355-387.
Hallward-Driemeier M. 2003. Do bilateral investment treaties attract foreign direct investment? only a bit and they could bite[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,349-379.
Helpman E. 1984. A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations[J]. Journal of Political Economy,92(3):451-471.
Jang K,Lee H. 2011. The Effect of Heterogeneous BIT on FDI Inflows:The Case of Developing Asian Countries[J]. Korea University.
Kerner A. 2009. Why Should I Believe You? The Costs and Consequences of Bilateral Investment Treaties[J]. International Studies Quarterly,53(1):73-102.
Méon P G,Sekkat K. 2008. Institutional quality and trade:which institutions? Which trade?[J]. Economic Inquiry,46(2):227-240.
Nguyen H T V,Vinh C T H,Trang L T T. 2014. The Impact of Heterogeneous Bilateral Investment Treaties(BIT)on Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)inflows to Vietnam[J]. Papers.
Pinto P M,Pinto S M,Stier-Moses N E. 2010. Regulating Foreign Investment:A Study of the Properties of Bilateral Investment Regimes[J]. Moses.
Rios-Morales R,Dragan G,Dominique U,et al. 2014. The Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Foreign Direct Investment in Switzerland[J]. Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas. Nuevaépoca/Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance,9(1):1-18.
Salacuse J W,Sullivan N P. 2005. Do BITs really work?:An evaluation of bilateral investment treaties and their grand bar-gain[J]. Harvard International Law Journal,46(1):67-130.
Sasse,J. P.(2011). Economic and Legal Protection of FDI. In An Economic Analysis of Bilateral Investment Treaties[M].(pp. 17-66). Gabler.
Swenson D L. 2009. Why do developing countries sign BIT?[J]. U. c. davis J. intl L.&Poly,12:437-459.
Trevino L J,Thomas D E,Cullen J. 2008. The three pillars of institutional theory and FDI in Latin America:An institutionalization process[J]. International Business Review,17(1):118-133.
Ullah M S,Inaba K. 2014. Liberalization and FDI Performance:Evidence from ASEAN and SAFTA Member Countries[J].Journal of Economic Structures,3(6):1-24.
Vernon R. 1966. International investment and international trade in the product cycle[J]. International Executive,8(4):16-16.
Wang Z,Youn H. 2018. Locating the External Source of Enforceability:Alliances,Bilateral Investment Treaties,and Foreign Direct Investment[J]. SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY,99(1):80-96.
Yackee J W. 2007. Do BIT Really Work? Revisiting the Empirical Link between Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Ssrn Electronic Journal,379-395.
Zeng K,Lu Y. 2016. Variation in Bilateral Investment Treaty Provisions and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to China,1997-2011[J]. International Interactions,42(5):820-848.
(1)“一带一路”沿线国家包括:东亚的蒙古,东盟10国(新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、缅甸、泰国、老挝、柬埔寨、越南、文莱和菲律宾);西亚18国(伊朗、伊拉克、土耳其、叙利亚、约旦、黎巴嫩、以色列、巴勒斯坦、沙特阿拉伯、也门、阿曼、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、希腊、塞浦路斯和埃及的西奈半岛);南亚8国(印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉、阿富汗、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、尼泊尔和不丹);中亚5国(哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦);独联体7国(俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、亚美尼亚和摩尔多瓦)和中东欧16国(波兰、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、波黑、黑山、塞尔维亚、阿尔巴尼亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚和马其顿)。
(2)发达国家和发展中国家的区分以联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD)发布的《世界投资报告》为依据。
(3)结果通过了KMO和巴特利特检验,且恰好提取了一个主成分。
邓新明,许洋. 2015.双边投资协定对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于制度环境门槛效应的分析[J].世界经济研究(3):10.
董有德,赵星星. 2014.自由贸易协定能够促进我国企业的对外直接投资吗——基于跨国公司知识-资本模型的经验研究[J].国际经贸探索,30(3):44-61.
姜逸倩,申俊喜. 2013.中国ODI在金砖国家的区位选择研究——基于传统经济因素和制度因素[J].国际商务研究(02):25-33.
李平,孟寒,黎艳. 2014.双边投资协定对中国对外直接投资的实证分析——基于制度距离的视角[J].世界经济研究(12):53-58.
刘晶. 2017.双边投资协定与FDI:研究进展述评及展望[J].中南财经政法大学学报(1):123-131.
刘晓丹,衣长军. 2017.中国对外直接投资微观绩效研究——基于PSM的实证分析[J].世界经济研究(3):68-77.
毛其淋,许家云. 2014.中国企业对外直接投资是否促进了企业创新[J].世界经济(8):98-125.
王红英,朱子阳. 2016.迈向全球投资治理框架:中国作为G20东道国的机会[J].国际经济评论(1):146-148.
杨宏恩,孟庆强,王晶,李浩. 2016.双边投资协定对中国对外直接投资的影响:基于投资协定异质性的视角[J].管理世界(4):24-36.
杨永聪,李正辉. 2018.经济政策不确定性驱动了中国OFDI的增长吗——基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计[J].国际贸易问题(3):138-148.
张中元. 2013.东道国制度质量、双边投资协议与中国对外直接投资——基于面板门限回归模型(PTR)的实证分析[J].南方经济,31(04):49-62.
宗芳宇,路江涌,武常岐. 2012.双边投资协定、制度环境和企业对外直接投资区位选择[J].经济研究(5):71-82.
Aisbett,Emma. 2009. Bilateral Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment:Correlation versus Causation[J]. Mpra Paper,(283140):395-437.
Asiedu E,Jin Y,Nandwa B. 2009. Does foreign aid mitigate the adverse effect of expropriation risk on foreign direct investment?[J]. Working Papers,78(2):268-275.
Bekker P,Ogawa A. 2013. The Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaty(BIT)Proliferation on Demand for Investment Insurance:Reassessing Political Risk Insurance After the'BIT Bang'[J]. ICSID Review,28(2):314-350.
Bento L. 2013. Time to Join the"BIT Club"? Promoting and Protecting Brazilian Investments Abroad[J]. American Review of International Arbitration,24(2):271-324.
Berger A. 2008. China and the global governance of foreign direct investment:the emerging liberal bilateral investment treaty approach[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing.
Berger A,Busse M,Nunnenkamp P,et al. 2011. More stringent BIT,less ambiguous effects on FDI? Not a bit![J]. Economics Letters,112(3):270-272.
Berger A,Busse M,Nunnenkamp P,et al. 2013. Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box[J]. International Economics and Economic Policy,10(2):247-275.
Bonnitcha J. 2012. The economics of investment treaty protection and the evolving empirical research agenda[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing.
Büthe T,Milner H V. 2014. Foreign Direct Investment and Institutional Diversity in Trade Agreements:Credibility,Commitment,and Economic Flows in the Developing World,1971-2007[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,66(4):88-122.
Chaisse J,Bellak C. 2011. Do Bilateral Investment Treaties Promote Foreign Direct Investment? Preliminary Reflections on a New Methodology[J]. Transnational Corporations Review,3(4):3-10.
Colen L,Damiaan P,Andrea G. 2014. What Type of FDI is Attracted by Bilateral Investment Treaties?[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,1-48.
Dunning,John H. 1993. The Theory of transnational corporations[M]. Routledge.
Egger P,Merlo V. 2012. BIT Bite:An Anatomy of the Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Multinational Firms[J].The Scandinavian Journal of Economics,114(4):1240-1266.
Egger P,Pfaffermayr M. 2004. The impact of bilateral investment treaties on foreign direct investment[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,32(4):788-804.
Fearon,J. D. 1997. Signaling Foreign Policy Interests:Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs[J]. Journal of Conflict Resolution,41(1):68-90.
Haftel,Y. Z.,&Thompson,A.(2013). Delayed Ratification:The Domestic Fate of Bilateral Investment Treaties. International Organization,67(02),355-387.
Hallward-Driemeier M. 2003. Do bilateral investment treaties attract foreign direct investment? only a bit and they could bite[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,349-379.
Helpman E. 1984. A Simple Theory of International Trade with Multinational Corporations[J]. Journal of Political Economy,92(3):451-471.
Jang K,Lee H. 2011. The Effect of Heterogeneous BIT on FDI Inflows:The Case of Developing Asian Countries[J]. Korea University.
Kerner A. 2009. Why Should I Believe You? The Costs and Consequences of Bilateral Investment Treaties[J]. International Studies Quarterly,53(1):73-102.
Méon P G,Sekkat K. 2008. Institutional quality and trade:which institutions? Which trade?[J]. Economic Inquiry,46(2):227-240.
Nguyen H T V,Vinh C T H,Trang L T T. 2014. The Impact of Heterogeneous Bilateral Investment Treaties(BIT)on Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)inflows to Vietnam[J]. Papers.
Pinto P M,Pinto S M,Stier-Moses N E. 2010. Regulating Foreign Investment:A Study of the Properties of Bilateral Investment Regimes[J]. Moses.
Rios-Morales R,Dragan G,Dominique U,et al. 2014. The Impact of Bilateral Investment Treaties on Foreign Direct Investment in Switzerland[J]. Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas. Nuevaépoca/Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance,9(1):1-18.
Salacuse J W,Sullivan N P. 2005. Do BITs really work?:An evaluation of bilateral investment treaties and their grand bar-gain[J]. Harvard International Law Journal,46(1):67-130.
Sasse,J. P.(2011). Economic and Legal Protection of FDI. In An Economic Analysis of Bilateral Investment Treaties[M].(pp. 17-66). Gabler.
Swenson D L. 2009. Why do developing countries sign BIT?[J]. U. c. davis J. intl L.&Poly,12:437-459.
Trevino L J,Thomas D E,Cullen J. 2008. The three pillars of institutional theory and FDI in Latin America:An institutionalization process[J]. International Business Review,17(1):118-133.
Ullah M S,Inaba K. 2014. Liberalization and FDI Performance:Evidence from ASEAN and SAFTA Member Countries[J].Journal of Economic Structures,3(6):1-24.
Vernon R. 1966. International investment and international trade in the product cycle[J]. International Executive,8(4):16-16.
Wang Z,Youn H. 2018. Locating the External Source of Enforceability:Alliances,Bilateral Investment Treaties,and Foreign Direct Investment[J]. SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY,99(1):80-96.
Yackee J W. 2007. Do BIT Really Work? Revisiting the Empirical Link between Investment Treaties and Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Ssrn Electronic Journal,379-395.
Zeng K,Lu Y. 2016. Variation in Bilateral Investment Treaty Provisions and Foreign Direct Investment Flows to China,1997-2011[J]. International Interactions,42(5):820-848.
(1)“一带一路”沿线国家包括:东亚的蒙古,东盟10国(新加坡、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、缅甸、泰国、老挝、柬埔寨、越南、文莱和菲律宾);西亚18国(伊朗、伊拉克、土耳其、叙利亚、约旦、黎巴嫩、以色列、巴勒斯坦、沙特阿拉伯、也门、阿曼、阿联酋、卡塔尔、科威特、巴林、希腊、塞浦路斯和埃及的西奈半岛);南亚8国(印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉、阿富汗、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、尼泊尔和不丹);中亚5国(哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦);独联体7国(俄罗斯、乌克兰、白俄罗斯、格鲁吉亚、阿塞拜疆、亚美尼亚和摩尔多瓦)和中东欧16国(波兰、立陶宛、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、斯洛文尼亚、克罗地亚、波黑、黑山、塞尔维亚、阿尔巴尼亚、罗马尼亚、保加利亚和马其顿)。
(2)发达国家和发展中国家的区分以联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD)发布的《世界投资报告》为依据。
(3)结果通过了KMO和巴特利特检验,且恰好提取了一个主成分。