考虑技术体制和需求结构下破坏性创新与产业演化
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摘要
通过构建考虑技术体制与需求结构下破坏性创新与产业演化多主体仿真模型,考察技术体制与需求结构在破坏性创新驱动产业演化中的作用。研究发现,随着技术机会不断增加、专有性不断下降,市场结构趋于竞争,破坏性创新对市场的颠覆程度更高,在位企业存活数目和市场份额不断减少,企业的平均年龄不断下降。并且,在需求异质性较高的市场,破坏性创新对产业演化的影响更加显著。
This paper investigates the influences of technological regimes of disruptive innovation, in terms of technological opportunity and appropriating condition, and demand structure on industry evolution. The results indicate that with the increase of technological opportunities and the declining of exclusivity, market competition tends to be fiercer, the average age of firms tend to be lower, and market shares of incumbent and number of survival incumbent are becoming smaller. In the market with a higher heterogeneity, the influence of disruptive innovation on industrial evolution is more significant.
This paper investigates the influences of technological regimes of disruptive innovation, in terms of technological opportunity and appropriating condition, and demand structure on industry evolution. The results indicate that with the increase of technological opportunities and the declining of exclusivity, market competition tends to be fiercer, the average age of firms tend to be lower, and market shares of incumbent and number of survival incumbent are becoming smaller. In the market with a higher heterogeneity, the influence of disruptive innovation on industrial evolution is more significant.
引文
[1] Christensen C M,Bower J L.Customer power,strategic investment,and the failure of leading firms[J].Strategic Management Journal,1996,17(3):197-218.
[2] Christensen C M.The innovator’s dilemma when new technologies cause great firms to fail[M].Boston:Harvard Business School Press,1997.
[3] Christensen C M,Raynor M.The innovator’s solution [M].Boston:Harvard Business School Press,2003.
[4] Prahalad C K.The fortune at the bottom of the pyramid:Eradicating poverty through profits[M].Upper Saddle River,NJ:FT Press,2002.
[5] Adner R,Zemsky P.A demand-based perspective on sustainable competitive advantage [J].Strategic Management Journal,2006,27:215-239.
[6] Govindarajan V,Kopall P K,Danneels E.The effects of mainstream and emerging customer orientations on radical and disruptive innovations [J].Journal of Productive Innovation Management,2011,28(S1):121-132.
[7] Kim J,Lee C.Technological regimes and the persistence of first-mover advantage [J].Industrial and Corporate Change,2011,20(5):1305-1333.
[8] 周江华,仝允桓,李纪珍.基于金字塔底层(BoP)市场的破坏性创新——针对山寨手机行业的案例研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):112-130.
[9] 郁培丽,石俊国,綦勇.收入分布,破坏性创新与社会福利[J].产经评论,2014(4):47-54.
[10] Adner R,Zemsky P.Disruptive technologies and the emergence of competition[J].Rand Journal of Economics,2005,36(2):229-254.
[11] Huang X,So?ic G.Analysis of industry equilibria in models with sustaining and disruptive technology[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,207:238-248.
[12] 石俊国,郁培丽,孙广生.颠覆性创新行为、消费者偏好内生与市场绩效[J].系统管理学报,2017,26(2):287-294.
[13] 吴佩,陈继祥,史玉婷.颠覆性创新产品低端市场进入最优定价研究[J].系统管理学报,2014,23(1):149-152.
[14] Malerba F,Orsenigo L.Technological regimes and firm behavior [J].Industrial and Corporate Change,1993,2:45-74.
[15] 石俊国,郁培丽,向涛.破坏性创新技术体制与产业演化[J].科学学研究,2016(7):1096-1102.
[16] 张春辉,陈继祥.考虑吸收能力与R&D投入的创新模式选择[J].系统管理学报,2012,21(1):93-104.
[17] 孙晓东,田澎,赵藜.消费者异质下基于质量-价格竞争的定价策略选择[J].系统管理学报,2013,22(3):349-357.
[18] Garavaglia C,Malerba F,Orsenigo L,et al.Technological regimes and demand structure in the evolution of the pharmaceutical industry [J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2012,22:677-709.
[19] Valente M.Consumer behaviour and technological complexity in the evolution of markets [D].University of Aalborg,1999.
[20] Valente M.Evolutionary demand:A model for boundedly rational consumers[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2012,22(5):1029-1080.
[21] Windrum P,Ciarli T,Birchenhall C.Consumer heterogeneity and the development of environmentally friendly technologies[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2009,76(4):533-551.
[22] Bleda M,Valente M.Graded eco-labels:A demand-oriented approach to reduce pollution[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2009,76(4):512-524.
[23] Faber A,Valente M,Janssen P.Exploring domestic micro-cogeneration in the Netherlands:An agent-based demand model for technology diffusion[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(6):2763-2775.
[24] Marengo L,Valente M.Industry dynamics in complex product spaces:An evolutionary model[J].Structural Change & Economic Dynamics,2010,21(1):5-16.
[25] Ciarli T,Leoncini R,Montresor S,et al.Innovation and competition in complex environments[J].Innovation,Organization & Management,2007,9(3-4):292-310.
[26] Ciarli T,Leoncini R,Montresor S,et al.Technological change and the vertical organization of industries[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2008,18(3):367-387.
[27] Schwoon M.Simulating the adoption of fuel cell vehicles [J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2006,16(4):435-472.
[28] Schwoon M.Learning by doing,learning spillovers and the diffusion of fuel cell vehicles [J].Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory,2008,16:1463-1476.
[29] Christensen C M,Raynor M,MacDonald R.What is disruptive innovation[J].Harvard Business Review,2015(12):44-53.
1)新进入企业采用破坏性创新策略,但是否会对在位企业产生颠覆性的影响,需要考虑产品技术性能、市场环境、技术发展速度等因素,本文接下来将对破坏性创新企业对在位企业的颠覆程度进行考察
2)在产业演化多主体仿真模型的构建中,企业、消费者的决策均参考本期及上一期的市场信息,因此,从计算机编程技术上来看,时间是离散的,企业和消费者在每一期都会进行新的决策,这也导致了市场的动态性从现实来讲,(市场上所有的)消费者和企业做出市场交易决策的变动也是随时的。在计算机仿真结果中,时间间隔并不表示产业发展过程中的真实年份,可能表示分钟、星期、月份等不同的时间概念;Valente使用电脑行业发展情况,采用1~1 000时间间隔表示电脑行业前50年的发展历程,在作者近期完成的论文中,基于中国手机产业在2G向3G转换中,实现技术赶超的历史背景,设置时间总间隔为1~600,其中时间间隔10大约表示1年
3)根据演化经济学相关研究,组1类似于惯例型技术体制,组2类似于创业型技术体制
[2] Christensen C M.The innovator’s dilemma when new technologies cause great firms to fail[M].Boston:Harvard Business School Press,1997.
[3] Christensen C M,Raynor M.The innovator’s solution [M].Boston:Harvard Business School Press,2003.
[4] Prahalad C K.The fortune at the bottom of the pyramid:Eradicating poverty through profits[M].Upper Saddle River,NJ:FT Press,2002.
[5] Adner R,Zemsky P.A demand-based perspective on sustainable competitive advantage [J].Strategic Management Journal,2006,27:215-239.
[6] Govindarajan V,Kopall P K,Danneels E.The effects of mainstream and emerging customer orientations on radical and disruptive innovations [J].Journal of Productive Innovation Management,2011,28(S1):121-132.
[7] Kim J,Lee C.Technological regimes and the persistence of first-mover advantage [J].Industrial and Corporate Change,2011,20(5):1305-1333.
[8] 周江华,仝允桓,李纪珍.基于金字塔底层(BoP)市场的破坏性创新——针对山寨手机行业的案例研究[J].管理世界,2012(2):112-130.
[9] 郁培丽,石俊国,綦勇.收入分布,破坏性创新与社会福利[J].产经评论,2014(4):47-54.
[10] Adner R,Zemsky P.Disruptive technologies and the emergence of competition[J].Rand Journal of Economics,2005,36(2):229-254.
[11] Huang X,So?ic G.Analysis of industry equilibria in models with sustaining and disruptive technology[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,207:238-248.
[12] 石俊国,郁培丽,孙广生.颠覆性创新行为、消费者偏好内生与市场绩效[J].系统管理学报,2017,26(2):287-294.
[13] 吴佩,陈继祥,史玉婷.颠覆性创新产品低端市场进入最优定价研究[J].系统管理学报,2014,23(1):149-152.
[14] Malerba F,Orsenigo L.Technological regimes and firm behavior [J].Industrial and Corporate Change,1993,2:45-74.
[15] 石俊国,郁培丽,向涛.破坏性创新技术体制与产业演化[J].科学学研究,2016(7):1096-1102.
[16] 张春辉,陈继祥.考虑吸收能力与R&D投入的创新模式选择[J].系统管理学报,2012,21(1):93-104.
[17] 孙晓东,田澎,赵藜.消费者异质下基于质量-价格竞争的定价策略选择[J].系统管理学报,2013,22(3):349-357.
[18] Garavaglia C,Malerba F,Orsenigo L,et al.Technological regimes and demand structure in the evolution of the pharmaceutical industry [J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2012,22:677-709.
[19] Valente M.Consumer behaviour and technological complexity in the evolution of markets [D].University of Aalborg,1999.
[20] Valente M.Evolutionary demand:A model for boundedly rational consumers[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2012,22(5):1029-1080.
[21] Windrum P,Ciarli T,Birchenhall C.Consumer heterogeneity and the development of environmentally friendly technologies[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2009,76(4):533-551.
[22] Bleda M,Valente M.Graded eco-labels:A demand-oriented approach to reduce pollution[J].Technological Forecasting & Social Change,2009,76(4):512-524.
[23] Faber A,Valente M,Janssen P.Exploring domestic micro-cogeneration in the Netherlands:An agent-based demand model for technology diffusion[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(6):2763-2775.
[24] Marengo L,Valente M.Industry dynamics in complex product spaces:An evolutionary model[J].Structural Change & Economic Dynamics,2010,21(1):5-16.
[25] Ciarli T,Leoncini R,Montresor S,et al.Innovation and competition in complex environments[J].Innovation,Organization & Management,2007,9(3-4):292-310.
[26] Ciarli T,Leoncini R,Montresor S,et al.Technological change and the vertical organization of industries[J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2008,18(3):367-387.
[27] Schwoon M.Simulating the adoption of fuel cell vehicles [J].Journal of Evolutionary Economics,2006,16(4):435-472.
[28] Schwoon M.Learning by doing,learning spillovers and the diffusion of fuel cell vehicles [J].Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory,2008,16:1463-1476.
[29] Christensen C M,Raynor M,MacDonald R.What is disruptive innovation[J].Harvard Business Review,2015(12):44-53.
1)新进入企业采用破坏性创新策略,但是否会对在位企业产生颠覆性的影响,需要考虑产品技术性能、市场环境、技术发展速度等因素,本文接下来将对破坏性创新企业对在位企业的颠覆程度进行考察
2)在产业演化多主体仿真模型的构建中,企业、消费者的决策均参考本期及上一期的市场信息,因此,从计算机编程技术上来看,时间是离散的,企业和消费者在每一期都会进行新的决策,这也导致了市场的动态性从现实来讲,(市场上所有的)消费者和企业做出市场交易决策的变动也是随时的。在计算机仿真结果中,时间间隔并不表示产业发展过程中的真实年份,可能表示分钟、星期、月份等不同的时间概念;Valente使用电脑行业发展情况,采用1~1 000时间间隔表示电脑行业前50年的发展历程,在作者近期完成的论文中,基于中国手机产业在2G向3G转换中,实现技术赶超的历史背景,设置时间总间隔为1~600,其中时间间隔10大约表示1年
3)根据演化经济学相关研究,组1类似于惯例型技术体制,组2类似于创业型技术体制