生育政策调整与城镇居民消费结构变迁——基于系统耦合度测算分析
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摘要
选取2000～2016年数据,运用灰色关联度分析方法测算了生育政策与城镇居民消费结构系统之间的耦合度。由测算结果可知,生育政策与城镇居民消费结构之间具有较强的关联性,关联系数均在0.5以上。生育政策系统各核心变量与城镇居民八大类消费支出关联度从强至弱依次为:教育、文化和娱乐类、食品烟酒类、其他用品及服务类、衣着类、生活用品及服务类、交通和通信类、医疗保健类、居住类。由此可知,生育政策调整、人口结构完善对释放城镇居民消费潜力和消费结构优化升级具有重要的作用。最后,提出政府以全面"放开二胎"政策为起点,积极推进生育福利政策改革;加强托幼儿教育投入,逐步将学前教育纳入义务教育范畴;完善居民养老模式,释放居民养老储蓄,积极开发丰富多样的消费品市场等措施和建议。
Based on the data from 2000 to 2016, the coupling degree between family planning policy and the consumption structure of urban resi-dents is calculated by using Grey Relational Analysis method. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the two systems,and the correlation coefficients are all above 0.5. The correlation degree between the core variables of the family planning policy system and the eight cate-gories of consumption of urban residents is weakening along with the order as following :education, culture and entertainment;food,tobacco,alcohol;other goods and services;clothing;daily necessities and services;transportation and communications;health care;housing. Therefore,the adjustment of family planning policy and the improvement of population structure play an important role in releasing the consumption potential of urban residents and optimizing the consumption structure. The following proposals are suggested : the government should actively promote the reform of reproductive welfare policy starting from the policy of allowing two children in a family; increase the investment in kindergarten education and grad-ually include the pre-school education into compulsory education; improve the old-age pension model to release the old-age savings and establish a diversified consumer markets.
Based on the data from 2000 to 2016, the coupling degree between family planning policy and the consumption structure of urban resi-dents is calculated by using Grey Relational Analysis method. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the two systems,and the correlation coefficients are all above 0.5. The correlation degree between the core variables of the family planning policy system and the eight cate-gories of consumption of urban residents is weakening along with the order as following :education, culture and entertainment;food,tobacco,alcohol;other goods and services;clothing;daily necessities and services;transportation and communications;health care;housing. Therefore,the adjustment of family planning policy and the improvement of population structure play an important role in releasing the consumption potential of urban residents and optimizing the consumption structure. The following proposals are suggested : the government should actively promote the reform of reproductive welfare policy starting from the policy of allowing two children in a family; increase the investment in kindergarten education and grad-ually include the pre-school education into compulsory education; improve the old-age pension model to release the old-age savings and establish a diversified consumer markets.
引文
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(1)按照2016年美元平均兑人民币汇率1美元=6.642 3元计算所得。
(2)2013~2016年为城镇居民人均消费支出,其余年份为城镇居民人均现金消费支出;增长率根据统计年鉴数据由作者计算所得,未扣除通货膨胀及价格因素的影响。
(3)2014~2016年恩格尔系数根据新口径数据,利用公式计算而得:恩格尔系数=城镇居民人均食品烟酒消费支出/城镇居民人均可支配收入。
[2]顾宝昌,等.生育意愿、生育行为和生育水平[J].人口研究,2011(2).
[3]侯佳伟,等.中国人口生育意愿变迁1980-2011[J].中国社会科学,2014(4).
[4]周晓蒙.经济状况、教育水平对城镇家庭生育意愿的影响[J].人口与经济,2018(5).
[5]杨华磊,吴义根,张冰鑫.城镇化、外部性与生育水平[J].人口与发展,2018,24(4).
[6]吴奇峰,苏群.计划生育政策如何影响城乡收入差距---基于CFPS数据的实证分析[J].贵州财经大学学报,2018(4).
[7]李汉东,王然,任昱洁.计划生育政策以来的独生子女数量及家庭结构分析[J].统计与决策,2018,34(13).
[8]都阳.人口转变的经济效应及其中国经济增长持续性的影响[J].中国人口科学,2004(5).
[9]王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应---论中国增长可持续性的人口因素[J].人口研究,2004(5).
[10]陈晓毅.人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响研究[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2017.
[11]SASCHA O.BECKER,FRANCESCO CINNIRELLA,LUDGER W-OESSMANN.The trade-off between fertility and education:evidence from before the demographic transition[J].Journal of economic growth,2010(3).
[12]MAR魱A LAURA ALZ A,CECILIA VEL魣ZQUEZ.The effect of education on teenage fertility:causal evidence for Argentina[J].IZA journal of development and migration,2017,7(1).
[13]LI HONGBIN,YI JUNJIAN,ZHANG JUNSEN.Estimating the effect of the one-child policy on the sex ratio imbalance in china:Identification based on the difference-in-differences[J].Demography,2011,48(4).
[14]SHANGJIN WEI,XIAOBO ZHANG.The competitive saving motive:Evidence from rising sex ratios and savings rates in China[J].Journal of politics economy,2011,119(3).
[15]SHANGJIN WEI,XIAOBO ZHANG.The competitive saving motive:concept,evidence and implications[J].Front.Econ.China,2016,11(3).'U
(1)按照2016年美元平均兑人民币汇率1美元=6.642 3元计算所得。
(2)2013~2016年为城镇居民人均消费支出,其余年份为城镇居民人均现金消费支出;增长率根据统计年鉴数据由作者计算所得,未扣除通货膨胀及价格因素的影响。
(3)2014~2016年恩格尔系数根据新口径数据,利用公式计算而得:恩格尔系数=城镇居民人均食品烟酒消费支出/城镇居民人均可支配收入。