汇率水平、汇率波动对企业绩效的影响——中国服务企业与商品企业的表现相同吗?
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摘要
汇率作为影响企业绩效的一个因素,其细化指标(汇率水平和汇率波动)对不同部门企业绩效的影响是否存在差异?基于微观的企业层面数据,本文考察人民币汇率水平、汇率波动对中国服务企业绩效的影响,并在同一个分析框架内与中国商品企业进行比较。结果显示:(1)服务企业绩效(净利润、净利率、毛利率、劳动生产率等)总体上要优于商品企业绩效。(2)未引入汇率水平及其波动与劳动生产率交叉项的模型结果研究表明,人民币汇率贬值对服务企业和商品企业的利润和销售都有促进作用,且对商品企业利润的影响要大于对服务企业利润的影响;人民币汇率波动对服务企业和商品企业的利润和销售都存在负面冲击,且对商品企业的冲击更大。(3)生产率较高的服务企业和商品企业在汇率贬值时能够增加更多的利润和销售;商品企业生产率越高,汇率波动对其利润和销售的负面冲击越大。本文研究结论不仅为新兴市场经济体的企业绩效受汇率变动影响提供了证据,而且对于认识汇率影响企业绩效的部门差异有一定启示。
As an influencing factor in firm performance,does the exchange rate( the exchange rate level and its volatility) bring about different effects on different sectors' performance? Based on the firm-level data,this paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate level and its volatility on the performance of China's service firms,and compares them with China's commodity firms within the same analytical framework. The results are shown as follows.Firstly,service firms' performance( net profit,net interest rate,gross profit margin,labor productivity,etc.)is generally superior to commodity firms' performance.Secondly,the results of the model that does not introduce the exchange rate level and its volatility and the cross term of labor productivity show that: the depreciation of RMB exchange rate has a positive effect on the profit and sales of service firms and commodity firms,and the impact on the profit of commodity firms is greater than that of service firms; while the volatility of RMB exchange rate has a negative impact on the profit and sales of service firms and commodity firms,and the impact on commodity firms is even greater.Thirdly,service firms and commodity firms with higher productivity can increase more profit and sales when the exchange rate depreciates; the higher the productivity of commodity firms,the greater the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on their profit and sales.The conclusions of this paper can not only provide evidence for the impact of exchange rate changes on the firm performance in emerging market economies,but also have some implications for understanding the differences in the exchange rate affecting firm performance.
As an influencing factor in firm performance,does the exchange rate( the exchange rate level and its volatility) bring about different effects on different sectors' performance? Based on the firm-level data,this paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate level and its volatility on the performance of China's service firms,and compares them with China's commodity firms within the same analytical framework. The results are shown as follows.Firstly,service firms' performance( net profit,net interest rate,gross profit margin,labor productivity,etc.)is generally superior to commodity firms' performance.Secondly,the results of the model that does not introduce the exchange rate level and its volatility and the cross term of labor productivity show that: the depreciation of RMB exchange rate has a positive effect on the profit and sales of service firms and commodity firms,and the impact on the profit of commodity firms is greater than that of service firms; while the volatility of RMB exchange rate has a negative impact on the profit and sales of service firms and commodity firms,and the impact on commodity firms is even greater.Thirdly,service firms and commodity firms with higher productivity can increase more profit and sales when the exchange rate depreciates; the higher the productivity of commodity firms,the greater the negative impact of exchange rate volatility on their profit and sales.The conclusions of this paper can not only provide evidence for the impact of exchange rate changes on the firm performance in emerging market economies,but also have some implications for understanding the differences in the exchange rate affecting firm performance.
引文
[1]BAGGS J,BEAULIEU E,FUNG L.Are service firms affected by exchange rate movements?[J].Review of Income and Wealth,2010,56(s1):S156-S176.
[2]FOOTE C L.Trend employment growth and the bunching of job creation and destruction[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1998,113(3):809-834.
[3]MANN C L.Prices,profit margins and the exchange rate[J].Federal Reserve Bulletin,1986(6):366-379.
[4]CLARIDA R.The real exchange rate,exports,and manufacturing profits:a theoretical framework with some empirical support[R].NBER WorkingPaper No.3811,1991.
[5]BAGGS J,BEAULIEU E,FUNG L,et al.Firm dynamics in retail trade:the response of Canadian retailers to exchange rate shocks[J]. Review ofInternational Economics,2016,24(3):635-666.
[6]FEENSTRA R. Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition:an empirical test[J]. Journal of InternationalEconomics,1989,27(1-2):25-45.
[7]周琢,陈钧浩.出口退税和汇率变动对中国出口企业利润率的影响[J].世界经济,2016(12):95-120.
[8]吴国鼎.企业有效汇率变动对企业利润的影响[J].世界经济,2017(5):49-72.
[9]FUNG L,LIU J T.The impact of real exchange rate movements on firm performance:a case study of Taiwanese manufacturing firms[J].Japan and theWorld Economy,2009,21(1):85-96.
[10]沈筠彬,伏玉林,丁锐.人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国制造业企业绩效的影响:来自制造业微观层面的证据[J].世界经济研究,2018,(5):25-36,13.
[11]TORAGANLI N,YAZGAN M E. Exchange rates and firm survival:an examination with Turkish firm-level data[J]. Economic Systems,2016,40(3):433-443.
[12]KELILUME I.Exchange rate volatility and firm performance in Nigeria:a dynamic panel regression approach[J].The Journal of Developing Areas,2016,50(6):161-174.
[13]LEE M.The impact of exchange rate on firm performance:evidence from Korean firms[J].Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2017,53(11):2440-2449.
[14]HRICOURT J,PONCET S.Exchange rate volatility,financial constraints,and trade:empirical evidence from Chinese firms[Z].World Bank PolicyResearch Working Paper No.6638,2013.
[15]LI Y A,XU J J,ZHAO C.Import response to exchange rate fluctuation:evidence from Chinese firms[Z].FREIT Working Paper No.623,2013.
[16]BERMAN N,MARTIN P,MAYER T.How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2012,127(1):437-492.
[17]GUILLOU S.Exports and exchange rate:a firm-level investigation[Z].Documents de travail de l’OFCE No.2008-02,2008.
[18]CHEUNG Y W,SENGUPTA R.Impact of exchange rate movements on exports:an analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms[R].MPRA WorkingPaper No.43118,2012.
[19]黄志刚,陈晓杰.人民币汇率波动弹性空间评估[J].经济研究,2010(5):41-54.
[20]JOHANNSEN F,MARTINEZ-ZARZOSO I.Exchange rate volatility,euro effect and the two margins of trade:evidence from monthly trade data[R].FREIT Working Paper No.761,2014.
[21]SERENIS D,TSOUNIS N,SERENIS P.Exchange rate volatility,and sectoral exports is there a relationship? new evidence from the EU[C].Perugia:Italy,International Conference on Applied Economics,2011.
[22]BAHMANI-OSKOOEE M,HEGERTY S W,HOSNY A.Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the E.U.and Egypt:evidence from 59industries[J].Empirica,2015,42(1):109-129.
[23]ARIZE A C.Real exchange-rate volatility and trade flows:the experience of eight European economies[J].International Review of Economics andFinance,1996,5(2):187-205.
[24]BAGGS J,BRANDER J.Trade liberalization,profitability,and financial leverage[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2006,37(2):196-211.
[25]BAGGS J,BEAULIEU E,FUNG L.Firm survival,performance and the exchange rate[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2009,42(2):393-421.
[26]FUNG L.Large real exchange rate movements,firm dynamics,and productivity growth[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2008,41(2):391-424.
(1)数据来源于世界银行网站,更新于2017年12月22日。
(2)基于研究的主要问题,将企业划分成“服务类企业”和“非服务类企业”两大部门,其中“非服务类企业”包括第一产业和第二产业内的所有企业(见“样本及企业所属行业划分”部分)。考虑到“非服务类企业”与“服务类企业”的表述在文中多次出现,会对易读性产生影响,所以从企业提供的产品是否存在空间形态出发,将服务类企业简述为“服务企业”,而将“非服务类企业”简述为“商品企业”。
(1)NACE Rev.2是目前的最新版,其相对于NACE Rev.1的分类要更为详细(NACE的第一版是1970年),2008—2011年为采用NACE Rev.2 的过渡期。NACE来源于如下的法语首字母缩写:Nomenclature statistique des activitéséconomiques dans la Communautéeuropéenne。
(1)新疆天润乳业股份有限公司(Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd.)成立时间为1999年。
(1)一般而言,会计利润就是常说的利润;而经济利润是经济学上的概念,经济学家认为会计利润被高估了,因为其只考虑了企业表面发生的成本费用,没有考虑隐性成本及期末的资产升值或贬值等情况。通俗来讲,经济利润可理解为会计利润与机会成本之差。
(1)本文也估计了二位码行业的固定效应结果,与对服务企业的估计结果一样,两者并未有显著差异。感兴趣的读者可向作者索要。
(1)限于篇幅,未报告模型(1)和模型(3)的估计结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索要。
(1)限于篇幅,未报告模型(1)和模型(3)的估计结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索要。
[2]FOOTE C L.Trend employment growth and the bunching of job creation and destruction[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1998,113(3):809-834.
[3]MANN C L.Prices,profit margins and the exchange rate[J].Federal Reserve Bulletin,1986(6):366-379.
[4]CLARIDA R.The real exchange rate,exports,and manufacturing profits:a theoretical framework with some empirical support[R].NBER WorkingPaper No.3811,1991.
[5]BAGGS J,BEAULIEU E,FUNG L,et al.Firm dynamics in retail trade:the response of Canadian retailers to exchange rate shocks[J]. Review ofInternational Economics,2016,24(3):635-666.
[6]FEENSTRA R. Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition:an empirical test[J]. Journal of InternationalEconomics,1989,27(1-2):25-45.
[7]周琢,陈钧浩.出口退税和汇率变动对中国出口企业利润率的影响[J].世界经济,2016(12):95-120.
[8]吴国鼎.企业有效汇率变动对企业利润的影响[J].世界经济,2017(5):49-72.
[9]FUNG L,LIU J T.The impact of real exchange rate movements on firm performance:a case study of Taiwanese manufacturing firms[J].Japan and theWorld Economy,2009,21(1):85-96.
[10]沈筠彬,伏玉林,丁锐.人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国制造业企业绩效的影响:来自制造业微观层面的证据[J].世界经济研究,2018,(5):25-36,13.
[11]TORAGANLI N,YAZGAN M E. Exchange rates and firm survival:an examination with Turkish firm-level data[J]. Economic Systems,2016,40(3):433-443.
[12]KELILUME I.Exchange rate volatility and firm performance in Nigeria:a dynamic panel regression approach[J].The Journal of Developing Areas,2016,50(6):161-174.
[13]LEE M.The impact of exchange rate on firm performance:evidence from Korean firms[J].Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,2017,53(11):2440-2449.
[14]HRICOURT J,PONCET S.Exchange rate volatility,financial constraints,and trade:empirical evidence from Chinese firms[Z].World Bank PolicyResearch Working Paper No.6638,2013.
[15]LI Y A,XU J J,ZHAO C.Import response to exchange rate fluctuation:evidence from Chinese firms[Z].FREIT Working Paper No.623,2013.
[16]BERMAN N,MARTIN P,MAYER T.How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes[J].The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2012,127(1):437-492.
[17]GUILLOU S.Exports and exchange rate:a firm-level investigation[Z].Documents de travail de l’OFCE No.2008-02,2008.
[18]CHEUNG Y W,SENGUPTA R.Impact of exchange rate movements on exports:an analysis of Indian non-financial sector firms[R].MPRA WorkingPaper No.43118,2012.
[19]黄志刚,陈晓杰.人民币汇率波动弹性空间评估[J].经济研究,2010(5):41-54.
[20]JOHANNSEN F,MARTINEZ-ZARZOSO I.Exchange rate volatility,euro effect and the two margins of trade:evidence from monthly trade data[R].FREIT Working Paper No.761,2014.
[21]SERENIS D,TSOUNIS N,SERENIS P.Exchange rate volatility,and sectoral exports is there a relationship? new evidence from the EU[C].Perugia:Italy,International Conference on Applied Economics,2011.
[22]BAHMANI-OSKOOEE M,HEGERTY S W,HOSNY A.Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the E.U.and Egypt:evidence from 59industries[J].Empirica,2015,42(1):109-129.
[23]ARIZE A C.Real exchange-rate volatility and trade flows:the experience of eight European economies[J].International Review of Economics andFinance,1996,5(2):187-205.
[24]BAGGS J,BRANDER J.Trade liberalization,profitability,and financial leverage[J].Journal of International Business Studies,2006,37(2):196-211.
[25]BAGGS J,BEAULIEU E,FUNG L.Firm survival,performance and the exchange rate[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2009,42(2):393-421.
[26]FUNG L.Large real exchange rate movements,firm dynamics,and productivity growth[J].Canadian Journal of Economics,2008,41(2):391-424.
(1)数据来源于世界银行网站,更新于2017年12月22日。
(2)基于研究的主要问题,将企业划分成“服务类企业”和“非服务类企业”两大部门,其中“非服务类企业”包括第一产业和第二产业内的所有企业(见“样本及企业所属行业划分”部分)。考虑到“非服务类企业”与“服务类企业”的表述在文中多次出现,会对易读性产生影响,所以从企业提供的产品是否存在空间形态出发,将服务类企业简述为“服务企业”,而将“非服务类企业”简述为“商品企业”。
(1)NACE Rev.2是目前的最新版,其相对于NACE Rev.1的分类要更为详细(NACE的第一版是1970年),2008—2011年为采用NACE Rev.2 的过渡期。NACE来源于如下的法语首字母缩写:Nomenclature statistique des activitéséconomiques dans la Communautéeuropéenne。
(1)新疆天润乳业股份有限公司(Xinjiang Tianrun Dairy Co.,Ltd.)成立时间为1999年。
(1)一般而言,会计利润就是常说的利润;而经济利润是经济学上的概念,经济学家认为会计利润被高估了,因为其只考虑了企业表面发生的成本费用,没有考虑隐性成本及期末的资产升值或贬值等情况。通俗来讲,经济利润可理解为会计利润与机会成本之差。
(1)本文也估计了二位码行业的固定效应结果,与对服务企业的估计结果一样,两者并未有显著差异。感兴趣的读者可向作者索要。
(1)限于篇幅,未报告模型(1)和模型(3)的估计结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索要。
(1)限于篇幅,未报告模型(1)和模型(3)的估计结果,感兴趣的读者可向作者索要。