基于SNA的重特大道路交通事故风险指标体系构建
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摘要
为加强对重特大道路交通事故的控制和预防,从95份重特大道路交通事故调查报告中提取相关数据,运用社会网络分析(SNA)构建重特大道路交通事故原因间的关系网络。通过社会网络相关指标,找到导致事故的关键原因,以及哪些原因组合导致事故的能力最强,得到重特大道路交通事故原因特征。建立重特大道路交通事故风险指标体系,并通过实例分析验证指标体系的合理性。研究结果可以进一步加深对重特大道路交通事故原因以及彼此间相互作用关系的认识,风险指标体系的建立可为重特大道路交通事故的预防预警工作提供参考。
In order to strengthen the prevention and control of major road traffic accidents,the relevant data were extracted from 95 investigation reports of major road traffic accidents,and the relationship network map among the causes of major road traffic accidents was constructed by using the social network analysis( SNA). By analyzing the relevant indexes of social network,the key causes of the accidents and the causes combination with the strongest ability causing the accidents were found out,then the characteristics of causes of major road traffic accidents were obtained. A risk index system of major road traffic accidents was established,and its rationality was verified through the case analysis. The results can further deepen the understanding on the causes of major road traffic accidents and the interaction relationship among them. The establishment of risk index system can provide reference for the prevention and early warning of major road traffic accidents.
In order to strengthen the prevention and control of major road traffic accidents,the relevant data were extracted from 95 investigation reports of major road traffic accidents,and the relationship network map among the causes of major road traffic accidents was constructed by using the social network analysis( SNA). By analyzing the relevant indexes of social network,the key causes of the accidents and the causes combination with the strongest ability causing the accidents were found out,then the characteristics of causes of major road traffic accidents were obtained. A risk index system of major road traffic accidents was established,and its rationality was verified through the case analysis. The results can further deepen the understanding on the causes of major road traffic accidents and the interaction relationship among them. The establishment of risk index system can provide reference for the prevention and early warning of major road traffic accidents.
引文
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[2]马兆有,方守恩,王长君.多车道高速公路事故特征关联分析[J].重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版),2016,35(6):115-119.MA Zhaoyou,FANG Shouen,WANG Changjun.Correlation analysis of accident characteristics on multilane highway[J].Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science),2016,35(6):115-119.
[3]高岩,董宪元,田飞.高速公路交通安全现状分析及管理对策[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(10):110-115.GAO Yan,DONG Xianyuan,TIAN Fei.Present situation analysis on highway traffic safety and management countermeasures[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2015,11(10):110-115.
[4]NANGANA L S,MONGA B,NGATU N R,et al.Frequency,causes and human impact of motor vehicle-related road traffic accident(RTA)in Lubumbashi,Democratic Republic of Congo[J].Environmental Health and Preventive Medicine,2016,21(5):350-355.
[5]ROVEK M,BATISTA M,BOGUNOVIC'B.Identifying the key risk factors of traffic accident injury severity on Slovenian roads using a non-parametric classification tree[J].Transport,2014,32(3):272-281.
[6]衡威威,许洪国,曾诚,等.基于突变理论的客运车辆交通事故机理研究[J].安全与环境工程,2017,24(1):141-145.HENG Weiwei,XU Hongguo,ZENG Cheng,et al.Mechanism of traffic accidents of passenger vehicles based on the catastrophe theory[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2017,24(1):141-145.
[7]刘志强,王玲,张爱红,等.基于贝叶斯模型的雾霾天高速公路交通事故发生机理研究[J].重庆理工大学学报:自然科学,2018,32(1):43-49.LIU Zhiqiang,WANG Ling,ZHANG Aihong,et al.Study on traffic accidents occurrence mechanism in haze weather on the highway[J].Journal of Chongqing University of Technology(Natural Science),2018,32(1):43-49.
[8]黄合来,罗启章,彭韵颖,等.山区高速公路隧道群路段危化品运输风险评价体系研究[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2018,49(8):2107-2114.HUANG Helai,LUO Qizhang,PENG Yunying,et al.Risk evaluation for hazardous chemicals transportation at mountainous freeway with tunnels groups[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2018,49(8):2107-2114.
[9]WAIZMAN G,SHOVAL S,BENENSON I.Traffic accident risk assessment with dynamic microsimulation model using range-range rate graphs[J].Accident Analysis and Prevention,2018,119:248-262.
[10]LIU Y,HUANG X,DUAN J,et al.The assessment of traffic accident risk based on grey relational analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method[J].Natural Hazards,2017,88(3):1409-1422.
[11]王恩达,石京.基于互信息理论的多风险因素下交通事故风险量化与分析[J].交通工程,2017,17(6):1-5.WANG Enda,SHI Jing.Quantification and analysis of traffic crash risk under the superposition of multiple factors based on the mutual information theory[J].Journal of Transportation Engineering,2017,17(6):1-5.
[12]胡思涛,项乔君,朱艳茹.基于贝叶斯网络的农村公路典型路段事故风险评价方法[J].公路,2014,59(7):285-290.HU Sitao,XIANG Qiaojun,ZHU Yanru.Crash risk assessment method for typical sections of rural roads using bayesian network[J].Highway,2014,59(7):285-290.
[13]丁雨蕾.重特大交通事故特征及影响因素分析[D].南京:东南大学,2016:33-43.
[14]刘文恒.公路穿村镇路段交通事故特征及事故致因深度分析[D].北京:北京交通大学,2018:37-48.
[15]贾熹滨,叶颖婕,陈军成.基于关联规则的交通事故影响因素的挖掘[J].计算机科学,2018,45(6A):447-452.JIA Xibin,YE Yingjie,CHEN Juncheng.Influence factors mining of traffic accidents based on association rules[J].Computer Science,2018,45(6A):447-452.
[16]BORGATTI S P,EVERETT M G,FREEMAN L C.UCINET6 for windows:Software for social network user’s guide[R].Harvard:Analytic Technologies,Inc.,2002.
[17]刘军.整体网分析讲义:UCINET软件实用指南:Lectures on whole network approach:a practical guide to UCINET[M].格致出版社,上海人民出版社,2009:127.
[18]王建军,王军锋,毕明涛.区域公路交通事故及高速公路交通事故特征[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2005,25(3):66-69.WANG Jianjun,WANG Junfeng,BI Mingtao.Characteristics of traffic accidents on highway and expressway[J].Journal of Chang’an University(Natural Science Edition),2005,25(3):66-69.
[19]赵学刚.区域路网交通安全风险动态预警关键技术研究[D].西安:长安大学,2010:32-34.
[20]中华人民共和国国家统计局.2013年国民经济发展稳中向好[EB/OL].(2014-01-20)[2019-06-10].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201401/t20140120_502082.html.