深度贫困地区经济增长的空间关联与减贫的外溢效应——以西藏和四省藏区为例
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摘要
本文以西藏和四省藏区为例,运用空间统计工具,实证分析了2000—2015年间深度贫困地区146个县经济增长水平的空间布局与特征。研究表明:一方面,从全域范围来看,县域经济增长水平存在着正的空间自相关性;而且随着时间的推移,这种相关性在增大。另一方面,从局域范围来看,县域经济增长水平也呈现出空间集聚特征越来越明显的趋势。通过构建一个衡量减贫外溢效应的指标——减贫潜能,进一步考察了深度贫困地区县域经济增长减贫的空间外溢效应。实证结果表明,在深度贫困地区的扶贫减贫策略中,空间外溢效应是不可忽视的重要因素;减贫潜能每增长1%,县域人均经济增长水平将会提高0.738%;但同时我们也发现,经济增长的减贫外溢效应也类似地呈现出空间衰减的态势。
By taking spatial statistical tools, the paper study the spatial distribution and characteristics of economic growth levels of 146 counties in poverty-stricken areas from 2000 to 2015, among Tibet and the Tibetan areas in other four provinces. The research shows that, on the one hand, there is a positive spatial autocorrelation between the economic growth level of county and county. And over time, the correlation has increased. On the other hand, from the perspective of local area, the growth level of county economy also presents a more and more obvious trend of spatial agglomeration. By building a measure of poverty reduction spillover effects——poverty reduction potential(PRP),and using spatial econometric model, this paper further analyzes the spatial spillover effect of poverty reduction in the depth of poverty county economic growth. The empirical results show that the spatial spillover effect is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the poverty alleviation and poverty reduction strategies in deep poverty areas. For every1% increase in poverty reduction potential, the per capita economic growth of counties will increase by 0.738%.But at the same time, we also find that the poverty reduction spillover effect of economic growth also presents a similar trend of spatial attenuation.
By taking spatial statistical tools, the paper study the spatial distribution and characteristics of economic growth levels of 146 counties in poverty-stricken areas from 2000 to 2015, among Tibet and the Tibetan areas in other four provinces. The research shows that, on the one hand, there is a positive spatial autocorrelation between the economic growth level of county and county. And over time, the correlation has increased. On the other hand, from the perspective of local area, the growth level of county economy also presents a more and more obvious trend of spatial agglomeration. By building a measure of poverty reduction spillover effects——poverty reduction potential(PRP),and using spatial econometric model, this paper further analyzes the spatial spillover effect of poverty reduction in the depth of poverty county economic growth. The empirical results show that the spatial spillover effect is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the poverty alleviation and poverty reduction strategies in deep poverty areas. For every1% increase in poverty reduction potential, the per capita economic growth of counties will increase by 0.738%.But at the same time, we also find that the poverty reduction spillover effect of economic growth also presents a similar trend of spatial attenuation.
引文
[1]Minot, N.and Baulch,B.Spatial Patterns of Poverty in Vietnam and Their Implications for Policy[J].Food Policy,2005,30(6):461-475.
[2]Kam,S.P.,Hossain,M.,Bose,M.et al.Spatial Patterns of Rural Poverty and Their Relationship with Welfare influencing Factors in Bangladesh[J].Food Policy,2005,30(6):551-567.
[3]Amarasinghe,U.A.,Samad, M.,Anputhas, M. Spatial Clustering of Rural Poverty and Food Insecurity in Sri Lanka[J].Food Policy,2005,30(6):495-509.
[4]Adeola, O. and Awoyemi, T. T. Spatial Dimension of Poverty in Rural Nigeria[J]. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics,2010,2(6):231-244.
[5]Lanjouw, P., Marra, M. and Nguyen, C. Vietnam’s Evolving Poverty Map Patterns and Implications for Policy[J].Social Indicators Research,2013,133(1):1-50.
[6]曲玮,涂勤,牛叔文,等.自然地理环境的贫困效应检验——自然地理条件对农村贫困影响的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2012,(2):21-34.
[7]袁媛,古叶恒,陈志灏.中国城市贫困的空间分布差异特征[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(2):195-203.
[8]Rupasingha, A. and Goetz, S. J. The Causes of Enduring Poverty:An Expanded Spatial Analysis of the Structural Determinants of Poverty in the US[M]. Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development,2003.
[9]Crandall,M.S.and Weber B.A.Local Social and Economic Conditions, Spatial Concentrations ofPoverty,and Poverty Dynamics[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2004,86(5):1276-1281.
[10]Palmerjones, R. and Sen, K. It is where you are that matters:the spatial determinants of rural poverty in India[J].Agricultural Economics,2006,34(3):229-242.
[11]Zewdie, M. A.,Aidi, M. N. and Sartono, B. Spatial Econometric Model of Poverty in Java Island[J].American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 2015,4(6):420-425.
[12]周圆圆.地理空间溢出、禀赋条件差异与区域贫困集聚——基于空间计量模型的实证分析[J].科学决策,2013(6):13-23.
[13]廖桂蓉,盛伟.藏区农牧民人均纯收入空间分布差异的实证分析[J].农村经济,2015(4):60-63.
[14]Anselin,L.Local Indicators of Spatial Association-LISA[J].Geographical Analysis,1995,27(2):93-115.
[15]Tobler, W. R. Lattice Tuning[J].Geographical Analysis, 1979,11(1):36-44.
[16]AnselinL.The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA Tool to Assess Local Instability in Spatial Association,In M.Fischer,H.J.Scholten and D. Unwin(Eds.),Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS[J].London, UK:Taylor and Francis, 1996.
[17]Elhorst JP.. Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models[J]. International Regional Science Review,2003,26(3):244-268.
[18]吴玉鸣,陈志建.居民消费水平的空间相关性与地区收敛性分析[J].世界经济文汇,2009(5):76-89.
[19]Harris,C.D.The Market as a Factor in the Localization of Industry in the United States[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,1954,64:315-348.
[20]潘文卿.中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应[J].经济研究,2012(1):54-65.
(1)“三区”是指西藏自治区以及四川、云南、甘肃、青海四省藏区和新疆南疆四地州;“三州”是指四川凉山州、甘肃临夏州、云南怒江州。
(2)数据来源:由2017年西藏、新疆、四川、青海、甘肃、云南和青海等省(区)统计年鉴整理计算而得。
(3)习近平在深度贫困地区脱贫攻坚座谈会上的讲话2017年6月23日。
(4)数据来源:由2017年西藏、新疆、四川、青海、甘肃、云南和青海等省(区)统计年鉴整理计算而得。
(5)为了保持数据的可得性、一致性和可比性,本文只选取了西藏和四省藏区的146个县作为分析对象,而没有选取西藏的城关区、双湖县和青海藏区的冷湖行委、大柴旦行委、茫崖行委。
(6)对于线性插值后仍存在的缺失值,以各县域最近年份值替代进行补齐。
(7)全域估计采用单一的县域直线距离的倒数为空间权重矩阵,来考察县域经济增长的整体的减贫外溢效应;而局域估计则采用变化了的地理直线距离的倒数为空间权重矩阵,来考察县域经济增长减贫效应的局部外溢效应的强度变化。
[2]Kam,S.P.,Hossain,M.,Bose,M.et al.Spatial Patterns of Rural Poverty and Their Relationship with Welfare influencing Factors in Bangladesh[J].Food Policy,2005,30(6):551-567.
[3]Amarasinghe,U.A.,Samad, M.,Anputhas, M. Spatial Clustering of Rural Poverty and Food Insecurity in Sri Lanka[J].Food Policy,2005,30(6):495-509.
[4]Adeola, O. and Awoyemi, T. T. Spatial Dimension of Poverty in Rural Nigeria[J]. Journal of Development and Agricultural Economics,2010,2(6):231-244.
[5]Lanjouw, P., Marra, M. and Nguyen, C. Vietnam’s Evolving Poverty Map Patterns and Implications for Policy[J].Social Indicators Research,2013,133(1):1-50.
[6]曲玮,涂勤,牛叔文,等.自然地理环境的贫困效应检验——自然地理条件对农村贫困影响的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2012,(2):21-34.
[7]袁媛,古叶恒,陈志灏.中国城市贫困的空间分布差异特征[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(2):195-203.
[8]Rupasingha, A. and Goetz, S. J. The Causes of Enduring Poverty:An Expanded Spatial Analysis of the Structural Determinants of Poverty in the US[M]. Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development,2003.
[9]Crandall,M.S.and Weber B.A.Local Social and Economic Conditions, Spatial Concentrations ofPoverty,and Poverty Dynamics[J].American Journal of Agricultural Economics,2004,86(5):1276-1281.
[10]Palmerjones, R. and Sen, K. It is where you are that matters:the spatial determinants of rural poverty in India[J].Agricultural Economics,2006,34(3):229-242.
[11]Zewdie, M. A.,Aidi, M. N. and Sartono, B. Spatial Econometric Model of Poverty in Java Island[J].American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics, 2015,4(6):420-425.
[12]周圆圆.地理空间溢出、禀赋条件差异与区域贫困集聚——基于空间计量模型的实证分析[J].科学决策,2013(6):13-23.
[13]廖桂蓉,盛伟.藏区农牧民人均纯收入空间分布差异的实证分析[J].农村经济,2015(4):60-63.
[14]Anselin,L.Local Indicators of Spatial Association-LISA[J].Geographical Analysis,1995,27(2):93-115.
[15]Tobler, W. R. Lattice Tuning[J].Geographical Analysis, 1979,11(1):36-44.
[16]AnselinL.The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA Tool to Assess Local Instability in Spatial Association,In M.Fischer,H.J.Scholten and D. Unwin(Eds.),Spatial Analytical Perspectives on GIS[J].London, UK:Taylor and Francis, 1996.
[17]Elhorst JP.. Specification and Estimation of Spatial Panel Data Models[J]. International Regional Science Review,2003,26(3):244-268.
[18]吴玉鸣,陈志建.居民消费水平的空间相关性与地区收敛性分析[J].世界经济文汇,2009(5):76-89.
[19]Harris,C.D.The Market as a Factor in the Localization of Industry in the United States[J].Annals of the Association of American Geographers,1954,64:315-348.
[20]潘文卿.中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应[J].经济研究,2012(1):54-65.
(1)“三区”是指西藏自治区以及四川、云南、甘肃、青海四省藏区和新疆南疆四地州;“三州”是指四川凉山州、甘肃临夏州、云南怒江州。
(2)数据来源:由2017年西藏、新疆、四川、青海、甘肃、云南和青海等省(区)统计年鉴整理计算而得。
(3)习近平在深度贫困地区脱贫攻坚座谈会上的讲话2017年6月23日。
(4)数据来源:由2017年西藏、新疆、四川、青海、甘肃、云南和青海等省(区)统计年鉴整理计算而得。
(5)为了保持数据的可得性、一致性和可比性,本文只选取了西藏和四省藏区的146个县作为分析对象,而没有选取西藏的城关区、双湖县和青海藏区的冷湖行委、大柴旦行委、茫崖行委。
(6)对于线性插值后仍存在的缺失值,以各县域最近年份值替代进行补齐。
(7)全域估计采用单一的县域直线距离的倒数为空间权重矩阵,来考察县域经济增长的整体的减贫外溢效应;而局域估计则采用变化了的地理直线距离的倒数为空间权重矩阵,来考察县域经济增长减贫效应的局部外溢效应的强度变化。