COSMIC掩星资料同化对台风“天兔”预报影响的试验
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摘要
台风数值预报的关键之一在于给定准确的模式初始场。本文使用气象、电离层和气候星座观测系统(COSMIC)的卫星资料,通过资料同化技术改善数值天气预报模式的初始场,进而评估数据同化技术对台风(或热带气旋)预报的改善效果。使用我国自主研发的数值天气预报模式,对1319号台风"天兔"进行模拟试验,对温度场、湿度场、涡度散度场及假相当位温场进行诊断分析。试验结果表明,与同化常规探空资料相比,COSMIC资料的同化可减小模式预报台风路径误差,台风附近降水落区更为集中。研究评估了掩星资料同化对模式的改进作用,并能为台风预报技术和防灾减灾提供参考。
A key factor of numerical typhoon prediction models is the initial field. COSMIC( Constellation Observation System of Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate) satellite data assimilation was used to improve the initial condition,and its effect on improving tropical storms( or typhoon) prediction was evaluated. Employing the GRAPES( Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) which was developed independently by China,typhoon Usagi( 1319) was simulated. Analyses are made based on the various outputs,such as temperature,humidity,vorticity,divergence and pseudo-equivalent temperature. The results show that COSMIC data,comparing to the radiosonde data,can enhance the ability of typhoon path and precipitation forecast assimilation. So this research indicates that assimilation of satellite data contributes to the improvement of GRAPES model as well as provides an example on preventing typhoon disasters and reducing damages.
A key factor of numerical typhoon prediction models is the initial field. COSMIC( Constellation Observation System of Meteorology,Ionosphere and Climate) satellite data assimilation was used to improve the initial condition,and its effect on improving tropical storms( or typhoon) prediction was evaluated. Employing the GRAPES( Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System) which was developed independently by China,typhoon Usagi( 1319) was simulated. Analyses are made based on the various outputs,such as temperature,humidity,vorticity,divergence and pseudo-equivalent temperature. The results show that COSMIC data,comparing to the radiosonde data,can enhance the ability of typhoon path and precipitation forecast assimilation. So this research indicates that assimilation of satellite data contributes to the improvement of GRAPES model as well as provides an example on preventing typhoon disasters and reducing damages.
引文
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[11]JAGADHEESHA D,SIMON B,PAL P K,et al.A new technique for estimation of lower-tropospheric temperature and water vapor profiles from radio occultation refractivity[J].Journal of Atmospheric&Oceanic Technology,2009,26(6):1 075-1 089.
[12]MA Xu-lin,ZHUANG Zhao-rong,XUE Ji-shan,et al.Development of 3-D variational data assimilation system for the nonhydrostatic numerical weather prediction model-GRAPES[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2009,67(1):50-60.马旭林,庄照荣,薛纪善,等.GRAPES非静力数值预报模式的三维变分资料同化系统的发展[J].气象学报,2009,67(1):50-60.
[13]YU Ling-ling,MAI Jian-hua,CHENG Zheng-quan.Diagnostic analysis intensity of super TY Usagi[J].Guangdong Meteorology,2014,36(1):7-11.于玲玲,麦健华,程正泉.1319号超强台风“天兔”强度变化的诊断分析[J].广东气象,2014,36(1):7-11.
[14]WEN Wei-jun.3Dvar assimilation of GPS occultation refractivity data and its impact on typhoon forecast[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,2008.文伟俊.GPS掩星资料三维变分同化及对台风预报的改进试验[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2008.
[15]SONG Xiao-jiang,YANG Xue-lian,XING Jian-yong.The test of typhoon forecast improve by 3D variational assimilation of GPS occulation material[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2013,35(5):67-75.宋晓姜,杨学联,邢建勇.2013.GPS掩星资料三维变分同化对台风模式预报的改进试验[J].海洋学报,35(5):67-75.
[16]WU De-hui.Analyzing the structure of typhoon“Longwang”before and after landing in Fujian coast[J].Journal of Oceanography in Taiwan Strait,2008,27(2):244-248.吴德辉.0519号台风“龙王”登陆福建沿海前后结构特征分析[J].台湾海峡,2008,27(2):244-248.
[17]YUAN Cheng-song,WANG Qiu-yun,BAO Yun-xuan,et al.Numerical simulations and diagnostic analysis on a heavy rainstorm process based on WRF model[J].Trans Atmos Sci,2011,34(4):456-466.袁成松,王秋云,包云轩,等.基于WRF模式的暴雨天气过程的数值模拟及诊断分析[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(4):456-466.
[18]ZHU Qian-gen,LIN Jin-rui,SHOU Shao-wen,et al.Synoptic principle and methodology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2000:422-423.朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2000:422-423.
[2]EYRE J R,KELLY G A,MCNAll Y A P,et al.Assimilation of TOVS radiance information through one-dimensional variational analysis[J].Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1993,119(514):1 427-1 463.
[3]SOKOLOVSKIY S,ROCKEN C,HUNT D,et al.GPS profiling of the lower troposphere from space:Inversion and demodulation of the openloop radio occultation signals[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2006,331(14):1 616-1 623.
[4]JIANG Sheng.Research on data assimilation of COSMIC RO data for typhoon prediction and its quality evaluation[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,2014.姜胜.COSMIC掩星资料质量分析及其在台风预报中的同化研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2014.
[5]SONG Xiao-jiang.Study on the application of GPS observation to WRF[D].Beijing:National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,2011.宋晓姜.GPS观测资料在WRF模式中的应用研究[D].北京:国家海洋环境预报研究中心,2011.
[6]KOU Y H,SCHREINER W S,WANG J,et al.Comparison of GPS radio occultation soundings with radiosondes[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32(5),L05817:4.
[7]GU Ying,SHU Jiong,TIAN Zhong-chuang,et al.A case study of variational assimilation of true real-time GPS precipitable water[J].Scientia Meteorologic Sinica,2010,30(2):172-178.顾莹,束炯,田中创,等.实时GPS可降水量资料的变分同化个例研究[J].气象科学,2010,30(2):172-178.
[8]HUANG C-Y,KOU Y-H,CHEN S-H.Improvements on typhoon forecast with assimilated GPS occultation refractivity[J].Weather and Forecasting,2005,20(6):931-953.
[9]CHEN De-hui,SHEN Xue-shun.Recent progress on GRAPES research and application[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2006,17(6):773-777.陈德辉,沈学顺.新一代数值预报系统GRAPES研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(6):773-777.
[10]WANG Guang-hui,SHEN Xue-shun,HU Jiang-lin,et al.Normal mode analysis of the GRAPES global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model[J].Chinese J Geophys,2009,52(12):2 964-2 972.王光辉,沈学顺,胡江林,等.GRAPES全球非静力大气模式的正规模分析[J].地球物理学报,2009,52(12):2 964-2 972.
[11]JAGADHEESHA D,SIMON B,PAL P K,et al.A new technique for estimation of lower-tropospheric temperature and water vapor profiles from radio occultation refractivity[J].Journal of Atmospheric&Oceanic Technology,2009,26(6):1 075-1 089.
[12]MA Xu-lin,ZHUANG Zhao-rong,XUE Ji-shan,et al.Development of 3-D variational data assimilation system for the nonhydrostatic numerical weather prediction model-GRAPES[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2009,67(1):50-60.马旭林,庄照荣,薛纪善,等.GRAPES非静力数值预报模式的三维变分资料同化系统的发展[J].气象学报,2009,67(1):50-60.
[13]YU Ling-ling,MAI Jian-hua,CHENG Zheng-quan.Diagnostic analysis intensity of super TY Usagi[J].Guangdong Meteorology,2014,36(1):7-11.于玲玲,麦健华,程正泉.1319号超强台风“天兔”强度变化的诊断分析[J].广东气象,2014,36(1):7-11.
[14]WEN Wei-jun.3Dvar assimilation of GPS occultation refractivity data and its impact on typhoon forecast[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,2008.文伟俊.GPS掩星资料三维变分同化及对台风预报的改进试验[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2008.
[15]SONG Xiao-jiang,YANG Xue-lian,XING Jian-yong.The test of typhoon forecast improve by 3D variational assimilation of GPS occulation material[J].Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2013,35(5):67-75.宋晓姜,杨学联,邢建勇.2013.GPS掩星资料三维变分同化对台风模式预报的改进试验[J].海洋学报,35(5):67-75.
[16]WU De-hui.Analyzing the structure of typhoon“Longwang”before and after landing in Fujian coast[J].Journal of Oceanography in Taiwan Strait,2008,27(2):244-248.吴德辉.0519号台风“龙王”登陆福建沿海前后结构特征分析[J].台湾海峡,2008,27(2):244-248.
[17]YUAN Cheng-song,WANG Qiu-yun,BAO Yun-xuan,et al.Numerical simulations and diagnostic analysis on a heavy rainstorm process based on WRF model[J].Trans Atmos Sci,2011,34(4):456-466.袁成松,王秋云,包云轩,等.基于WRF模式的暴雨天气过程的数值模拟及诊断分析[J].大气科学学报,2011,34(4):456-466.
[18]ZHU Qian-gen,LIN Jin-rui,SHOU Shao-wen,et al.Synoptic principle and methodology[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2000:422-423.朱乾根,林锦瑞,寿绍文,等.天气学原理和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2000:422-423.