国内旅游发展对经济增长的影响——基于121个国家的实证研究
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摘要
国内旅游是多数国家旅游发展的根基,是全球旅游市场的主体,也是全球经济的重要组成部分。本文在系统梳理国内外相关文献的基础上,使用121个国家1996～2015年的平衡面板数据,应用静态面板和动态面板模型,就国内旅游发展对经济增长的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明,世界各国国内旅游发展水平参差不齐;"旅游促进增长假说"适用于全球范围内的国内旅游发展,按照动态模型测算,国内旅游发展水平每上升1%,经济增长率提升0.00254%;与此同时,物质资本、政府规模、创新能力以及人力资本、产业结构、客运能力、城镇化水平等因素也会对经济增长产生一定影响,亦应引起关注。
Domestic tourism is the basis of most countries' tourism development, the principle part of global tourism market, and the important component of global economy.Based on a systematical teasing-out of the researches on domestic tourism development both in China and abroad, this article employs the balanced panel data of 121 countries from 1996 to 2015 as well as static and dynamic panel models to make an empirical study on the influence of domestic tourism development on economic growth.The results show that the domestic tourism development levels in these countries are in various levels.Moreover, "tourism-led growth hypothesis"(TLGH) is applicable to domestic tourism development globally, and according to the dynamic model, 1% increase in domestic tourism development level will result in 0.00254% increase of economic growth.Meanwhile, other factors such as physical capital, government scale, innovation ability, human capital, industrial structure, transportation ability and urbanization level also have certain impacts on economic growth, thus these factors should cause concerns.
Domestic tourism is the basis of most countries' tourism development, the principle part of global tourism market, and the important component of global economy.Based on a systematical teasing-out of the researches on domestic tourism development both in China and abroad, this article employs the balanced panel data of 121 countries from 1996 to 2015 as well as static and dynamic panel models to make an empirical study on the influence of domestic tourism development on economic growth.The results show that the domestic tourism development levels in these countries are in various levels.Moreover, "tourism-led growth hypothesis"(TLGH) is applicable to domestic tourism development globally, and according to the dynamic model, 1% increase in domestic tourism development level will result in 0.00254% increase of economic growth.Meanwhile, other factors such as physical capital, government scale, innovation ability, human capital, industrial structure, transportation ability and urbanization level also have certain impacts on economic growth, thus these factors should cause concerns.
引文
① 数据来源:联合国世界旅游组织(UNWTO)、世界旅行与旅游理事会(WTTC)以及中国社会科学院旅游研究中心与世界旅游城市联合会(WTCF)课题组。一是国内旅游驱动型国家,入境旅游收入占比在0%～30%(含)之间;二是国内旅游与入境旅游双驱动型国家,入境旅游收入占比在30%～70%(含)之间;三是入境旅游驱动型国家,入境旅游收入占比在70%以上。在上述20个国家中,包括中国、巴西、德国、墨西哥、印度、英国、美国、加拿大、意大利、澳大利亚、韩国、日本、菲律宾、俄罗斯和法国等在内的绝大多数国家均属于国内旅游驱动型国家。
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(13)Shan.J.and Wilson,K.,Causality between Trade and Tourism:Empirical Evidence from China.Applied Economics Letters,Vol.8 (4) ,2001,pp.279-283.
(14)刘生龙、胡鞍钢:《交通基础设施与经济增长:中国区域差距的视角》,《中国工业经济》2010年第4期,第14～23页。
(15)Keller,W.,Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?The World Bank Economic Review,Vol.14 (1),2000 ,pp.17-47.
(1)Ridderstaat,J.,Croes,R.and Nijkamp,P.,Modelling Tourism Development and Long-Run Economic Growth in Aruba.Amsterdam:Tinbergen Institute,2013,(TI Discussion Paper;13-145/VIII).
(2)Brida J.G.,Cortes-Jimenez,I.and Pulina,M.,Has the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis Been Validated?A Literature Review.Current Issues in Tourism,Vol.19 (5),2014,pp.1-37.
(3)Durbarry,R.,Tourism and Economic Growth:The Case of Mauritius.Tourism Economics,Vol.10 (4),2004 ,pp.389-401.
(4)Fayissa,B.,Nsiah,C.and Tadesse,B.,Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa.Tourism Economics,Vol.14 (4) ,2008,pp.807-818.
(5)Brida,J.G.,et al.,The Tourism-Led-Growth Hypothesis for Uruguay.Tourism Economics,Vol.16 (3),2010,pp.765-771.
(6)Balaguer,J.and Cantavella,M.,Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor:The Spanish Case.Applied Economics,Vol.34 (7) ,2002,pp.877-884.
(7)林源源、范小军:《江西省旅游产业对地区经济贡献的实证研究》,《技术经济与管理研究》2009年第1期,第116～118页。
(8)孙虹乔、杨海晖:《中国城乡居民旅游消费与经济增长——基于地级市样本数据的实证》,《开发研究》2011年第6期,第89～93页。
(9)Wang,L.,Zhang,H.and Li,W.,Analysis of Causality between Tourism and Economic Growth Based on Computational Econometrics.JCP,Vol.7 (9) ,2012,pp.2152-2159.
(10)Goh,C.,Li,H.and Li,M.,A Comparative Analysis of Domestic and International Tourism Spatial Distribution:Trends and Impacts.Journal of China Tourism Research,Vol.10 (4),2014,pp.388-413.
(11).and Kuli?,Z.,Tourism and Economic Growth in Mediterranean Region:Dynamic Panel Data Approach.Acta Economica Et Turistica,Vol.2(1),2016,pp.65-84.
(12)Fayissa,B.,Nsiah,C.and Tadesse,B.,Research Note:Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries—Further Empirical Evidence.Tourism Economics,Vol.17 (6) ,2011,pp.1365-1373.
(13)Shan.J.and Wilson,K.,Causality between Trade and Tourism:Empirical Evidence from China.Applied Economics Letters,Vol.8 (4) ,2001,pp.279-283.
(14)刘生龙、胡鞍钢:《交通基础设施与经济增长:中国区域差距的视角》,《中国工业经济》2010年第4期,第14～23页。
(15)Keller,W.,Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?The World Bank Economic Review,Vol.14 (1),2000 ,pp.17-47.