汾河水库入库径流特性研究
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摘要
采用Morlet小波分析法、秩和检验法、累积距平法结合cramer’s检验法从周期性、趋势性等4个方面,研究了汾河水库入库径流的特性,对其年际及年内间的变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明:在1956年至2000年之间汾河水库入库径流存在8年、14年、21年的周期性特征,其中14年与21年的周期性最为明显,与趋势分析的结果相对照,存在21年周期的可能性最大;从1956年至2000年汾河水库入库径流量经历了丰-平-枯的变化过程,其中两次突变分别发生在1969年与1980年;其年内分配过程极不均匀,冬春多发干旱,而夏秋径流量丰富,其直接原因是降水量的年内分配极为不均。
In this paper,Morlet wavelet analysis method,the rank-sum test method,the accumulated anomaly method and cramer's test method are adopted to study the characteristics of the inflow runoff of Fenhe Reservoir from four aspects such as the periodicity and trend,and the analysis on its change trend in annual year and inter-annual year is taken.The results show that the inflow runoff of Fenhe Reservoir has the periodic characteristics of 8 years,14 years and 21 years during the years from 1956 to 2000,in which the periodicity of 14 years and 21 years is obvious,and the periodicity of 21 years has the highest possibility by reference to results of the trend analysis.During the years from 1956 to 2000,the inflow runoff of Fenhe Reservoir was from high to ordinary,and to low,and the two mutations appeared in 1969 and 1980.The annaul distribution process was extremely uneven,the drought appeared in spring and winter frequently,and the runoff was abundant in summer and autumn,which was caused by annual uneven rainfall.
In this paper,Morlet wavelet analysis method,the rank-sum test method,the accumulated anomaly method and cramer's test method are adopted to study the characteristics of the inflow runoff of Fenhe Reservoir from four aspects such as the periodicity and trend,and the analysis on its change trend in annual year and inter-annual year is taken.The results show that the inflow runoff of Fenhe Reservoir has the periodic characteristics of 8 years,14 years and 21 years during the years from 1956 to 2000,in which the periodicity of 14 years and 21 years is obvious,and the periodicity of 21 years has the highest possibility by reference to results of the trend analysis.During the years from 1956 to 2000,the inflow runoff of Fenhe Reservoir was from high to ordinary,and to low,and the two mutations appeared in 1969 and 1980.The annaul distribution process was extremely uneven,the drought appeared in spring and winter frequently,and the runoff was abundant in summer and autumn,which was caused by annual uneven rainfall.
引文
[1]刘卫林,漳河观台站降雨径流时间序列的混沌特性分析[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2011,39(4):384-390.
[2]邓红霞,汤成友,李存军,等.基于模糊模式识别的径流特性分析[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2006,38(3):29-33.
[3]Song Shengli,Wang Dong,Wu Jichun.Hydrologic characteristics analysis of monthly runoff series in lower Yellow River,2010International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence,232-235.
[4]邱临静,郑粉莉,尹润生.1952年-2008年延河流域降水与径流的变化趋势分析[J].水土保持学报,2011(3):49-53.
[5]王渺林,易瑜.长江上游径流变化趋势分析[J].人民长江,2009(19):68-69.
[6]康玲,杨正祥,姜铁兵.基于Morlet小波的丹江口水库入库流量周期性分析[J].计算机工程与科学,2009(11):149-152.
[7]Tabari H,Talaee P H,Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran:1966-2005[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,396(3/4):313-320.
[2]邓红霞,汤成友,李存军,等.基于模糊模式识别的径流特性分析[J].四川大学学报(工程科学版),2006,38(3):29-33.
[3]Song Shengli,Wang Dong,Wu Jichun.Hydrologic characteristics analysis of monthly runoff series in lower Yellow River,2010International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence,232-235.
[4]邱临静,郑粉莉,尹润生.1952年-2008年延河流域降水与径流的变化趋势分析[J].水土保持学报,2011(3):49-53.
[5]王渺林,易瑜.长江上游径流变化趋势分析[J].人民长江,2009(19):68-69.
[6]康玲,杨正祥,姜铁兵.基于Morlet小波的丹江口水库入库流量周期性分析[J].计算机工程与科学,2009(11):149-152.
[7]Tabari H,Talaee P H,Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran:1966-2005[J].Journal of Hydrology,2011,396(3/4):313-320.