基于改进综合赋权法的塔里木河流域“三源一干”水资源承载力评价
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摘要
科学客观的评价流域水资源承载力,对于合理、高效利用水资源,促进经济社会的可持续发展具有重要意义。根据干旱区水资源特点,并结合塔里木河流域实际情况,建立了涵盖4个方面、12项指标的水资源承载力评价体系。利用可变模糊集理论与综合赋权法对研究区不同水平年水资源承载力进行评价,结果表明:2015年,阿克苏河流域与塔里木河干流水资源承载力评价等级为2级,和田河流域与叶尔羌河流域水资源承载力已达到2～3级,若继续恶化必将阻碍流域可持续发展;至2035年,叶尔羌河流域与和田河流域水资源承载力等级均为2级,表明研究区水资源复合系统有好转趋势,承载力有所增强;阿克苏河流域水资源承载力评价等级为2级,水资源复合系统相对稳定;塔里木河干流水资源承载力等级稳定在2级,说明该流域水资源系统可支撑当地生产生活与生态用水。所建模型评价结果稳定、精准程度高,研究结果为流域水资源优化配置提供了重要参考。
Scientific and objective evaluation on water resources carrying capacity is of great significance for rational and efficient utilization of water resources and promoting sustainable development of economy and society.According to the characteristics of water resources in arid areas and the actual situation of Tarim River Basin,this paper establishes an evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity,which covers 4 aspects and 12 indexes.Variable fuzzy set theory and comprehensive weighting method are used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in the study area.The results show that:in 2015,the WRCC of Aksu River Basin and Tarim River trunk reaches grade 2,and the WRCC of Hotan River Basin and Yeerqiang River Basin has reached grade 2～3,if it continues to deteriorate,this will impede the sustainable development.By 2035,the WRCC of Yeerqiang River Basin and Hetian River Basin will reach grade 2,indicating that the water resources composite system has a better trend and the WRCC will be enhanced.The WRCC of Tarim River trunk reaches grade 2,indicating that the water resources system can support the local production,living and ecological water use.The evaluation results of the model are stable and accurate.The results provide an important reference for the optimal allocation of water resources in river basins.
Scientific and objective evaluation on water resources carrying capacity is of great significance for rational and efficient utilization of water resources and promoting sustainable development of economy and society.According to the characteristics of water resources in arid areas and the actual situation of Tarim River Basin,this paper establishes an evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity,which covers 4 aspects and 12 indexes.Variable fuzzy set theory and comprehensive weighting method are used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in the study area.The results show that:in 2015,the WRCC of Aksu River Basin and Tarim River trunk reaches grade 2,and the WRCC of Hotan River Basin and Yeerqiang River Basin has reached grade 2～3,if it continues to deteriorate,this will impede the sustainable development.By 2035,the WRCC of Yeerqiang River Basin and Hetian River Basin will reach grade 2,indicating that the water resources composite system has a better trend and the WRCC will be enhanced.The WRCC of Tarim River trunk reaches grade 2,indicating that the water resources system can support the local production,living and ecological water use.The evaluation results of the model are stable and accurate.The results provide an important reference for the optimal allocation of water resources in river basins.
引文
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[15]薛联青,时佳,陈新芳.基于系统熵值分析的水资源复合系统承载力可变模糊综合研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017,(10):1-5.
[16]戴明宏,王腊春,魏兴萍.基于熵权的模糊综合评价模型的广西水资源承载力空间分异研究[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):193-199.
[2]王建华,翟正丽.水资源承载力指标体系及评判准则研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(9):1 023-1 029.
[3]左其亭.水资源承载力研究方法总结与再思考[J].水利水电科技进展,2017,37(3):1-6,54.
[4]Harris J M,Kennedy S.Carrying capacity in agriculture:global and regional issues[J].Ecological Economics,1999,29(3):443-461.
[5]Manandhar S,Kazama F.Application of water poverty index(WPI)in nepalese context:A case study of Kali Gan-daki River Basin(KGRB)[J].Water Resources Management,2012,26(1):89-107.
[6]史毅超,唐德善,孟令爽.基于改进可变模糊方法的区域水资源承载力预警模型[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(1):36-39.
[7]崔东文,金波.足球联赛竞争算法-投影寻踪模型在区域水资源承载力评价中的应用[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2018,40(1):5-11.
[8]曹丽娟,张小平.基于主成分分析的甘肃省水资源承载力评价[J].干旱区地理,2017,40(4):906-912.
[9]郭倩,汪嘉杨,张碧.基于DPSIRM框架的区域水资源承载力综合评价[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(3):484-493.
[10]张安,和吉,陈晓楠.基于云理论的区域水资源承载力评价模型研究[J].水利水电技术,2017,48(1):18-22.
[11]宰松梅,温季,仵峰.河南省新乡市水资源承载力评价研究[J].水利学报,2011,42(7):783-788.
[12]王西琴,高伟,曾勇.基于SD模型的水生态承载力模拟优化与例证[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(5):1 352-1 360.
[13]左其亭,张云.塔里木河流域人水和谐定量评价及调控对策[J].干旱区地理,2008,(2):164-174.
[14]时佳,薛联青,陈新芳.基于综合赋权法的叶尔羌河流域水资源承载力可变模糊综合评价[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(5):32-36.
[15]薛联青,时佳,陈新芳.基于系统熵值分析的水资源复合系统承载力可变模糊综合研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017,(10):1-5.
[16]戴明宏,王腊春,魏兴萍.基于熵权的模糊综合评价模型的广西水资源承载力空间分异研究[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(1):193-199.