分析师预测会利用年报文本信息吗
|
摘要
当前,以文本信息为主的非财务信息在年报中的地位逐渐提高,采用文本语调统计法和特征词统计法,通过Pyt hon编程语言分析了中国A股上市公司的年报文本信息。研究发现,分析师会关注年报文本信息,并调整对上市公司的业绩预测。如果文本信息语调与实际业绩不符且异常乐观,分析师将下调业绩预测,并减少对文本信息的关注。
At present, the non-financial information with text messages as the principal part is becoming more and more important in annual reports. This paper adopts the textual intonation statistical method and characteristic word statistical method to analyze the text message in the annual reports of China's A-share listed companies through Python programming language. The findings show that analysts would pay attention to the text information in the annual reports and adjust the performance forecast of listed companies. If the tone of the text message does not match the actual performance and is extremely optimistic, the analyst will downgrade the performance forecast and reduce their focus on the text message.
At present, the non-financial information with text messages as the principal part is becoming more and more important in annual reports. This paper adopts the textual intonation statistical method and characteristic word statistical method to analyze the text message in the annual reports of China's A-share listed companies through Python programming language. The findings show that analysts would pay attention to the text information in the annual reports and adjust the performance forecast of listed companies. If the tone of the text message does not match the actual performance and is extremely optimistic, the analyst will downgrade the performance forecast and reduce their focus on the text message.
引文
[1]程新生,谭有超,刘建梅.非财务信息、外部融资与投资效率---基于外部制度约束的研究[J].管理世界,2012,(7):137-150.
[2]Davis A.K.,Tama-Sweet I..Managers’Use of Language across Alternative Disclosure Outlets:Earnings Press Release versus MD&A[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2012,29(3):838-844
[3]Baginski S.,Demers E.,Wang C.,Yu J..Contemporaneous Verification of Language:Evidence from Management Earnings Forecasts[J].Review of Accounting Studies,2016,21(1):165-197.
[4]林乐,谢德仁.分析师荐股更新利用管理层语调吗?---基于业绩说明会的文本分析[J].管理世界,2017,(11):125-145.
[5]Li F..The Information Content of Forward-Looking Statements in Corporate Filings-A Na觙ve Bayesian Machine Learning Approach[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2010,48(2):1049-1112.
[6]Loughran T.,Mc Donald B..When Is a Liability Not a Liability?Textual Analysis,Dictionaries,and 10Ks[J].The Journal of Finance,2011,66(1):35-65.
[7]潘越,潘健平,马奕涵.企业的合作文化促进创新了吗?[C].第16届实证会计国际研讨会论文集,2017:255-278.
[8]Lo K.,Ramos F.,Rogo R..Earnings Management and Annual Report Readability[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2017,63(1):1-25
[9]Barth M.,Kasznik R.,Mcnichols M..Analyst Coverage and Intangible Assets[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2001,39(1):1-34.
[10]Groysberg B.,Healy P.,Maber D..What Drives Sell-Side Analysts Compensation at High-Status Investment Banks[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2011,49(4):969-1000.
[11]张宗新,姚佩怡.标新立异、“风险厌恶”还是“精益求精”?---基于明星分析师研报观点导向的实证研究[J].证券市场导报,2018,(1):46-53.
[12]万丽梅,逯东.中国证券分析师角色担当:声誉机制与市场环境的交互效应[J].当代财经,2013,(3):64-73.
[13]游家兴,周瑜婷,肖珉.凯恩斯选美竞赛与分析师预测偏差行为---基于高阶预期的研究视角[J].金融研究,2017,(7):192-206.
[14]Demers E.,Vega C..Understanding the Role of Managerial Optimism and Uncertainty in the Price Formation Process:Evidence from the Textual Content of Earnings Announcements[DB/OL].[2014-03-14].http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1152326.
[15]李春涛,赵一,徐欣,李青原.按下葫芦浮起瓢:分析师跟踪与盈余管理途径选择[J].金融研究,2016,(4):144-157.
[16]叶陈刚,刘猛.分析师关注、产权性质与盈余管理路径[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2018,(3):33-42.
[17]陈伟宏,钟熙,宋铁波.CEO任期、分析师关注度与企业慈善捐赠[J].当代财经,2018,(9):70-79.
[18]秦帅,吴锡皓.D&O保险与分析师盈余预测质量[J].当代财经,2018,(4):111-122.
[19]Huang X.,Teoh S.,Zhang Y..Tone Management[J].Accounting Review,2014,89(3):1083-1113.
[20]杨兴全,吴昊旻.成长性、代理冲突与公司财务政策[J].会计研究,2011,(8):40-45.
[21]陈翔宇,万鹏.财务信息可比性、产品市场竞争与分析师预测[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2016,(4):94-101.
[22]谢德仁,廖珂,郑登津.控股股东股权质押与开发支出会计政策隐性选择[J].会计研究,2017,(3):30-38.
[23]朱朝晖,许文瀚.管理层语调是否配合了盈余管理行为?[J].广东财经大学学报,2018,(1):86-98.
[24]王华杰,王克敏.应计操纵与年报文本信息语气操纵研究[J].会计研究,2018,(4):45-51.
[25]谢德仁,林乐.管理层语调能预示公司未来业绩吗?--基于我国上市公司年度业绩说明会的文本分析[J].会计研究,2015,(2):20-27.
[26]王雄元,李岩琼,肖忞.年报风险信息披露有助于提高分析师预测准确度吗?[J].会计研究,2017,(10):37-43.
[2]Davis A.K.,Tama-Sweet I..Managers’Use of Language across Alternative Disclosure Outlets:Earnings Press Release versus MD&A[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,2012,29(3):838-844
[3]Baginski S.,Demers E.,Wang C.,Yu J..Contemporaneous Verification of Language:Evidence from Management Earnings Forecasts[J].Review of Accounting Studies,2016,21(1):165-197.
[4]林乐,谢德仁.分析师荐股更新利用管理层语调吗?---基于业绩说明会的文本分析[J].管理世界,2017,(11):125-145.
[5]Li F..The Information Content of Forward-Looking Statements in Corporate Filings-A Na觙ve Bayesian Machine Learning Approach[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2010,48(2):1049-1112.
[6]Loughran T.,Mc Donald B..When Is a Liability Not a Liability?Textual Analysis,Dictionaries,and 10Ks[J].The Journal of Finance,2011,66(1):35-65.
[7]潘越,潘健平,马奕涵.企业的合作文化促进创新了吗?[C].第16届实证会计国际研讨会论文集,2017:255-278.
[8]Lo K.,Ramos F.,Rogo R..Earnings Management and Annual Report Readability[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2017,63(1):1-25
[9]Barth M.,Kasznik R.,Mcnichols M..Analyst Coverage and Intangible Assets[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2001,39(1):1-34.
[10]Groysberg B.,Healy P.,Maber D..What Drives Sell-Side Analysts Compensation at High-Status Investment Banks[J].Journal of Accounting Research,2011,49(4):969-1000.
[11]张宗新,姚佩怡.标新立异、“风险厌恶”还是“精益求精”?---基于明星分析师研报观点导向的实证研究[J].证券市场导报,2018,(1):46-53.
[12]万丽梅,逯东.中国证券分析师角色担当:声誉机制与市场环境的交互效应[J].当代财经,2013,(3):64-73.
[13]游家兴,周瑜婷,肖珉.凯恩斯选美竞赛与分析师预测偏差行为---基于高阶预期的研究视角[J].金融研究,2017,(7):192-206.
[14]Demers E.,Vega C..Understanding the Role of Managerial Optimism and Uncertainty in the Price Formation Process:Evidence from the Textual Content of Earnings Announcements[DB/OL].[2014-03-14].http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1152326.
[15]李春涛,赵一,徐欣,李青原.按下葫芦浮起瓢:分析师跟踪与盈余管理途径选择[J].金融研究,2016,(4):144-157.
[16]叶陈刚,刘猛.分析师关注、产权性质与盈余管理路径[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2018,(3):33-42.
[17]陈伟宏,钟熙,宋铁波.CEO任期、分析师关注度与企业慈善捐赠[J].当代财经,2018,(9):70-79.
[18]秦帅,吴锡皓.D&O保险与分析师盈余预测质量[J].当代财经,2018,(4):111-122.
[19]Huang X.,Teoh S.,Zhang Y..Tone Management[J].Accounting Review,2014,89(3):1083-1113.
[20]杨兴全,吴昊旻.成长性、代理冲突与公司财务政策[J].会计研究,2011,(8):40-45.
[21]陈翔宇,万鹏.财务信息可比性、产品市场竞争与分析师预测[J].首都经济贸易大学学报,2016,(4):94-101.
[22]谢德仁,廖珂,郑登津.控股股东股权质押与开发支出会计政策隐性选择[J].会计研究,2017,(3):30-38.
[23]朱朝晖,许文瀚.管理层语调是否配合了盈余管理行为?[J].广东财经大学学报,2018,(1):86-98.
[24]王华杰,王克敏.应计操纵与年报文本信息语气操纵研究[J].会计研究,2018,(4):45-51.
[25]谢德仁,林乐.管理层语调能预示公司未来业绩吗?--基于我国上市公司年度业绩说明会的文本分析[J].会计研究,2015,(2):20-27.
[26]王雄元,李岩琼,肖忞.年报风险信息披露有助于提高分析师预测准确度吗?[J].会计研究,2017,(10):37-43.