中国与中亚国家油气资源合作风险比较分析
|
摘要
随着"一带一路"倡议的实施,中国与地处丝绸之路经济带的中亚国家在石油、天然气等能源领域的合作迎来了历史性新机遇。中国油气企业与中亚国家合作的过程中,需要了解与中亚国家开展油气资源合作的风险,以便采取有效的应对措施。根据专家意见,把中国与中亚国家的油气资源合作风险具体划分为政治风险、经济风险、社会安全风险、资源及技术风险。采用模糊层次分析方法,分别计算出4个一级指标和14个二级指标的权重,构建模糊综合评价模型,对中亚国家分别进行评价。结果表明:中亚五国由于地理、历史、民族、文化、经济等原因,中国与其在油气资源合作过程中均存在不同程度的风险,其中塔吉克斯坦为最高,哈萨克斯坦为最低。
China and the Central Asian countries located in the Silk Road Economic Belt have ushered in historic new opportunities in oil and gas resources cooperation with the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. China's oil and gas companies need to understand the risk to take effective countermeasures in the process of cooperation with Central Asian countries. This paper classifies the risk of oil and gas resources cooperation between China and Central Asian countries into political risks,economic risks,social security risks,resource and technological risks according to the suggestions of experts. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to calculate the weights of the four first-level indices and the fourteen second-level indices,construct a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,in order to evaluate the risks of Central Asian countries. The results indicate that there are different levels of risk of oil and gas resources cooperation between China and Central Asian countries due to geographical,historical,ethnic,cultural and economic reasons. Tajikistan has the highest risk of oil and gas resourcescooperation and Kazakhstan has the lowest.
China and the Central Asian countries located in the Silk Road Economic Belt have ushered in historic new opportunities in oil and gas resources cooperation with the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. China's oil and gas companies need to understand the risk to take effective countermeasures in the process of cooperation with Central Asian countries. This paper classifies the risk of oil and gas resources cooperation between China and Central Asian countries into political risks,economic risks,social security risks,resource and technological risks according to the suggestions of experts. The Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to calculate the weights of the four first-level indices and the fourteen second-level indices,construct a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,in order to evaluate the risks of Central Asian countries. The results indicate that there are different levels of risk of oil and gas resources cooperation between China and Central Asian countries due to geographical,historical,ethnic,cultural and economic reasons. Tajikistan has the highest risk of oil and gas resourcescooperation and Kazakhstan has the lowest.
引文
[1]黄晓勇.世界能源发展报告(2017)[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2017.HUANG Xiao-yong. Annual development report on world energy[M]. Beijing:Social Sciences Academic Press,2017.
[2]董秀成.一带一路战略背景下中国油气国际合作的机遇、挑战与对策[J].价格理论与实践,2015(4):14-16.DONG Xiu-cheng. Opportunities,challenges and countermeasures for China’s international cooperation in petroleum and natural gas in the Belt and Road Initiative context[J]. Price Theory and Practice,2015(4):14-16.
[3]国土资源部.“一带一路”沿线油气资源潜力大,中国地质调查局为国际合作开发搭桥[EB/OL]. http://www. mlr. gov. cn/xwdt/jrxw/201709/t20170915_1595164.htm,2017-09-15.Ministry of Land and Resources of the People’s Republic of China. There is a great potential of petroleum and natural gas resources along the Belt and Road and international cooperation and development have been bridging by China Geological Survey.[EB/OL]. http://www.mlr. gov. cn/xwdt/jrxw/201709/t20170915_1595164.htm,2017-09-15.
[4]张勤辉.“丝绸之路经济带”倡议下中国中亚油气产业合作研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2016.ZHANG Qin-hui. Cooperation in oil and gas industry between China and central Asia in silk road economic belt initiative[D]. Chengdu:Southwest Petroleum University,2016.
[5] ZHAO Shu-rong,YE Lu. On energy cooperation between China and central Asia[J]. 2014 International Conference on Public Administration(ICPA 10th),2014:1160-1165.
[6]蒋焕.中亚油气合作风险分析及对策[J].石油化工技术与经济,2014,30(2):1-5.JIANG Huan. Analysis on risks and countermeasures of oil and gas cooperation between China and middle Asia countries[J]. Technology and Economics in Petrochemicals,2014,30(2):1-5.
[7]吴绩新.中国、中亚能源合作的风险评估[J].绍兴文理学院学报,2014,34(5):112-116.WU Ji-xin. Risk assessment of energy cooperation between China and central Asia[J]. Journal of Shaoxing University,2014,34(5):112-116.
[8]岳侠,钱晓萍.中亚五国投资环境比较研究:中国的视角[J].亚太经济,2015(2):73-78.YUE Xia,QIAN Xiao-ping. Investment environment comparison in five central Asian countries[J]. Asiapacific Economic Review,2015(2):73-78.
[9]鲁东侯.中亚油气合作风险及应对[J].中国石油石化,2015(19):40-44.LU Dong-hou. Risks and countermeasures of petroleum and natural gas cooperation in central Asia[J]. Chinese Petroleum and Petrochemical,2015(19):40-44.
[10]王海燕.中国与中亚地区能源合作的新进展与新挑战[J].国际石油经济,2016,24(7):74-79.WANG Hai-yan. New progress and challenges of energy cooperation between China and central Asia[J]. International Petroleum Economics,2016,24(7):74-79.
[11]刘腾飞.新丝路框架下中亚投资环境与风险研究[J].湖北第二师范学院学报,2016,33(6):56-59.LIU Teng-fei. The investment environment and risk in central Asia under the framework of the new silk road[J]. Journal of Hubei University of Education,2016,33(6):56-59.
[12]再米娜·伊力哈木.“丝绸之路经济带”建设在中亚面临的风险与挑战评析[J].新疆师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2017,38(4):123-129.Zamina·Yiliham. Analysis of risk and challenge facing silk-road economic belt in central Asia[J]. Journal of Xinjiang Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,2017,38(4):123-129.
[13]陆兵.中国企业走向中亚市场的风险和防范措施[J].新疆师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2017,38(4):100-112.LU Bing. Risk and precautionary measures for Chinese enterprises to make their way into central Asia market[J]. Journal of Xinjiang Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences,2017,38(4):100-112.
[14]邓秀杰.中国与中亚国家油气合作的机遇与挑战研究[D].北京:中共中央党校,2015.DENG Xiu-Jie. Study on the opportunities and challenges of Chinese oil and gas cooperation with central Asian countries[D]. Beijing:Party School of the CPC Central Committee,2015.
[15]李琰.中亚四国投资环境比较研究[D].沈阳:东北财经大学,2016.LI Yan. A comparative study of the investment environment of four countries in central Asia[D]. Shenyang:Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,2016.
[16]侯红芳,史恭龙.“一带一路”战略下的中亚油气合作研究[J].信息化建设,2015,(3):211-213.HOU Hong-fang,SHI Gong-long. Cooperation of petroleum and natural gas in central Asian the Belt and Road initiative context[J]. Informatization Construction,2015,(3):211-213.
[17]蒋屹.“一带一路”战略背景下中国海外矿产资源开发外部安全风险研究[D].北京:中国地质大学,2015.JIANG Yi. Study on overseas mineral resources development security under one Belt and one Road strategy[D]. Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2015.
[2]董秀成.一带一路战略背景下中国油气国际合作的机遇、挑战与对策[J].价格理论与实践,2015(4):14-16.DONG Xiu-cheng. Opportunities,challenges and countermeasures for China’s international cooperation in petroleum and natural gas in the Belt and Road Initiative context[J]. Price Theory and Practice,2015(4):14-16.
[3]国土资源部.“一带一路”沿线油气资源潜力大,中国地质调查局为国际合作开发搭桥[EB/OL]. http://www. mlr. gov. cn/xwdt/jrxw/201709/t20170915_1595164.htm,2017-09-15.Ministry of Land and Resources of the People’s Republic of China. There is a great potential of petroleum and natural gas resources along the Belt and Road and international cooperation and development have been bridging by China Geological Survey.[EB/OL]. http://www.mlr. gov. cn/xwdt/jrxw/201709/t20170915_1595164.htm,2017-09-15.
[4]张勤辉.“丝绸之路经济带”倡议下中国中亚油气产业合作研究[D].成都:西南石油大学,2016.ZHANG Qin-hui. Cooperation in oil and gas industry between China and central Asia in silk road economic belt initiative[D]. Chengdu:Southwest Petroleum University,2016.
[5] ZHAO Shu-rong,YE Lu. On energy cooperation between China and central Asia[J]. 2014 International Conference on Public Administration(ICPA 10th),2014:1160-1165.
[6]蒋焕.中亚油气合作风险分析及对策[J].石油化工技术与经济,2014,30(2):1-5.JIANG Huan. Analysis on risks and countermeasures of oil and gas cooperation between China and middle Asia countries[J]. Technology and Economics in Petrochemicals,2014,30(2):1-5.
[7]吴绩新.中国、中亚能源合作的风险评估[J].绍兴文理学院学报,2014,34(5):112-116.WU Ji-xin. Risk assessment of energy cooperation between China and central Asia[J]. Journal of Shaoxing University,2014,34(5):112-116.
[8]岳侠,钱晓萍.中亚五国投资环境比较研究:中国的视角[J].亚太经济,2015(2):73-78.YUE Xia,QIAN Xiao-ping. Investment environment comparison in five central Asian countries[J]. Asiapacific Economic Review,2015(2):73-78.
[9]鲁东侯.中亚油气合作风险及应对[J].中国石油石化,2015(19):40-44.LU Dong-hou. Risks and countermeasures of petroleum and natural gas cooperation in central Asia[J]. Chinese Petroleum and Petrochemical,2015(19):40-44.
[10]王海燕.中国与中亚地区能源合作的新进展与新挑战[J].国际石油经济,2016,24(7):74-79.WANG Hai-yan. New progress and challenges of energy cooperation between China and central Asia[J]. International Petroleum Economics,2016,24(7):74-79.
[11]刘腾飞.新丝路框架下中亚投资环境与风险研究[J].湖北第二师范学院学报,2016,33(6):56-59.LIU Teng-fei. The investment environment and risk in central Asia under the framework of the new silk road[J]. Journal of Hubei University of Education,2016,33(6):56-59.
[12]再米娜·伊力哈木.“丝绸之路经济带”建设在中亚面临的风险与挑战评析[J].新疆师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2017,38(4):123-129.Zamina·Yiliham. Analysis of risk and challenge facing silk-road economic belt in central Asia[J]. Journal of Xinjiang Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition,2017,38(4):123-129.
[13]陆兵.中国企业走向中亚市场的风险和防范措施[J].新疆师范大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2017,38(4):100-112.LU Bing. Risk and precautionary measures for Chinese enterprises to make their way into central Asia market[J]. Journal of Xinjiang Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences,2017,38(4):100-112.
[14]邓秀杰.中国与中亚国家油气合作的机遇与挑战研究[D].北京:中共中央党校,2015.DENG Xiu-Jie. Study on the opportunities and challenges of Chinese oil and gas cooperation with central Asian countries[D]. Beijing:Party School of the CPC Central Committee,2015.
[15]李琰.中亚四国投资环境比较研究[D].沈阳:东北财经大学,2016.LI Yan. A comparative study of the investment environment of four countries in central Asia[D]. Shenyang:Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,2016.
[16]侯红芳,史恭龙.“一带一路”战略下的中亚油气合作研究[J].信息化建设,2015,(3):211-213.HOU Hong-fang,SHI Gong-long. Cooperation of petroleum and natural gas in central Asian the Belt and Road initiative context[J]. Informatization Construction,2015,(3):211-213.
[17]蒋屹.“一带一路”战略背景下中国海外矿产资源开发外部安全风险研究[D].北京:中国地质大学,2015.JIANG Yi. Study on overseas mineral resources development security under one Belt and one Road strategy[D]. Beijing:China University of Geosciences,2015.