有害型产品的预售战略
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摘要
有害型产品或服务在当代社会的消费规模日益增加,日常生活中常见的有害型产品包括自助餐、快餐、手机游戏和赌场等。该类产品的显著特征是:消费时,消费者得到即时的满足感,但其消费的副作用将在未来对消费者产生显著影响。具体消费场景体现为消费者通过手机软件提前订购自助餐、快餐和手游等产品或者服务。基于消费者自我控制理论和厂商预售定价理论,探讨消费者购买决策过程中的行为偏差对厂商预售定价的影响机理。以销售有害型产品厂商为主要研究对象,通过构建行为经济学模型,系统分析消费者当期偏好倾向和消费者过度自信两大消费者行为偏差对厂商的最优定价策略、厂商利润和消费者剩余的影响,进一步考察厂商提供退款承诺对行为偏差和厂商利润关系的调节作用。研究结果表明,①消费者决策过程中的行为偏差显著影响厂商预售定价和退款战略,即在存在消费者行为偏差的情况下,厂商愿意承诺更高的退款金额,并且高的预售价格也未必与高的退款金额紧密相关;②消费者行为偏差既可能增加也可能减少厂商利润水平,而厂商是否提供退款机制显著调节消费者行为偏差与厂商利润之间的关系;③相对于没有退款承诺的情形,提供退款承诺能够帮助厂商获得更多的利润。有害型产品的副作用越大,消费者的过度自信程度越高,从而厂商通过退款承诺获取的利润也越多。此外,消费者在提前购买商品时面临的购买风险既可增加也可减少退款承诺带来的额外收益。研究拓展了传统的预售模型,在考虑消费者行为偏差后,新的模型可以更准确地刻画消费者对于有害型产品的实际购买决策过程。进一步揭示了退款的另一重要作用,即通过打破消费者决策行为的一致性来获取价值。研究结果还可以帮助相关行业管理者洞察消费者行为因素,有针对性地制定营销战略和提升企业绩效水平。
The consumption of vice products/services is gaining immense scale in modern society. Good examples of vice goods products in daily life include buffets,fast foods,mobile games,casinos. Compared to other types of products,vice goods often cause immediate gratification; however,the side effect of consumption will significantly influence consumers in the future. The consumption scenario can be reflected as consumers advance book buffets,fast foods,mobile games via mobile apps.Based on self-control and advance selling theory,this paper investigates the impact of consumer behavioral biases during the purchase process on the company's pricing strategy and the inherent mechanism. The key subjects studied are those companies selling vice products. By constructing an economic model,this paper investigates how the two behavioral biases,consumers' present-biased preference,and overconfidence bias,influence the company' s optimal pricing strategy,profits,and consumer welfare. In addition,the moderating effect of the refund on the relationship between consumer behavioral biases and company's profits has also been examined.Based on the model,we,first,find that consumer behavioral biases significantly affect the company's optimal advance pricing strategy and refund policy. Specifically,the seller tends to promise a much higher level of refunds; and a high selling price is not necessarily related to a high refund level. Second,consumers' behavioral biases can either increase or decrease the company's profits. Providing the refunds or not by the company can significantly moderate the above relationship. Third,compared to the non-refunded situation,we reveal that providing refunds contributes to even higher profits for the company. Specifically,the more side effects brought by vice products,the stronger the degree of overconfidence,and the higher the extra benefits the company could obtain from the refunds. Interestingly,we also find that the uncertainties consumers face while advance purchasing the product can either increase or decrease those extra profits brought by the refunds.We contribute to the traditional advance selling model by considering consumers' behavior biases,which can better capture consumer's actual decision process for the vice products. Different from the main findings in the extant literature,our results further uncover another important role of offering refunds: capturing value by breaking up the time-consistency behavior of consumers. Our results help the managers obtain customer insights,design relevant marketing strategies and further improve profits.
The consumption of vice products/services is gaining immense scale in modern society. Good examples of vice goods products in daily life include buffets,fast foods,mobile games,casinos. Compared to other types of products,vice goods often cause immediate gratification; however,the side effect of consumption will significantly influence consumers in the future. The consumption scenario can be reflected as consumers advance book buffets,fast foods,mobile games via mobile apps.Based on self-control and advance selling theory,this paper investigates the impact of consumer behavioral biases during the purchase process on the company's pricing strategy and the inherent mechanism. The key subjects studied are those companies selling vice products. By constructing an economic model,this paper investigates how the two behavioral biases,consumers' present-biased preference,and overconfidence bias,influence the company' s optimal pricing strategy,profits,and consumer welfare. In addition,the moderating effect of the refund on the relationship between consumer behavioral biases and company's profits has also been examined.Based on the model,we,first,find that consumer behavioral biases significantly affect the company's optimal advance pricing strategy and refund policy. Specifically,the seller tends to promise a much higher level of refunds; and a high selling price is not necessarily related to a high refund level. Second,consumers' behavioral biases can either increase or decrease the company's profits. Providing the refunds or not by the company can significantly moderate the above relationship. Third,compared to the non-refunded situation,we reveal that providing refunds contributes to even higher profits for the company. Specifically,the more side effects brought by vice products,the stronger the degree of overconfidence,and the higher the extra benefits the company could obtain from the refunds. Interestingly,we also find that the uncertainties consumers face while advance purchasing the product can either increase or decrease those extra profits brought by the refunds.We contribute to the traditional advance selling model by considering consumers' behavior biases,which can better capture consumer's actual decision process for the vice products. Different from the main findings in the extant literature,our results further uncover another important role of offering refunds: capturing value by breaking up the time-consistency behavior of consumers. Our results help the managers obtain customer insights,design relevant marketing strategies and further improve profits.
引文
[1]XIE J H,SHUGAN S M.Electronic tickets,smart cards,and online prepayments:when and how to advance sell.Marketing Science,2001,20(3):219-243.
[2]SHUGAN S M,XIE J H.Advance pricing of services and other implications of separating purchase and consumption.Journal of Service Research,2000,2(3):227-239.
[3]但斌,郑开维,邵兵家.基于消费众筹的“互联网+”生鲜农产品供应链预售模式研究.农村经济,2017(2):83-88.DAN Bin,ZHENG Kaiwei,SHAO Bingjia.Internet-based crowdsourcing model for advance selling of agriculture products.Rural Economy,2017(2):83-88.(in Chinese)
[4]毛丽娟,郑清华.产品预售众筹模式下的会计处理探讨.财会通讯,2017(1):72-74.MAO Lijuan,ZHENG Qinghua.Accounting investigation for advance selling products.Communication of Finance and Accounting,2017(1):72-74.(in Chinese)
[5]叶芳,杜朝运.众筹参与者的行为决策机制:一个两阶段理论模型分析.金融经济学研究,2015,30(4):96-107.YE Fang,DU Chaoyun.The decision-making mechanism of the crowdfunding participants:a two-stage theoretical model analysis.Journal of Finance and Economics,2015,30(4):96-107.(in Chinese)
[6]周雄伟,李俊,蔡丹,等.预售背景下易逝品销售的时间策略研究.中国管理科学,2017,25(6):91-100.ZHOU Xiongwei,LI Jun,CAI Dan,et al.Marketing time strategy of advance selling for perishable goods.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(6):91-100.(in Chinese)
[7]VIGNA S D,MALMENDIER U.Contract design and selfcontrol:theory and evidence.The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2004,119(2):353-402.
[8]JAIN S.Self-control and optimal goals:a theoretical analysis.Marketing Science,2009,28(6):1027-1045.
[9]LAIBSON D.Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting.The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1997,112(2):443-478.
[10]SVENSON O.Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?.Acta Psychologica,1981,47(2):143-148.
[11]LARWOOD L,WHITTAKER W.Managerial myopia:selfserving biases in organizational planning.Journal of Applied Psychology,1977,62(2):194-198.
[12]THALER R H,SHEFRIN H M.An economic theory of self-control.Journal of Political Economy,1981,89(2):392-406.
[13]MACHADO F S,SINHA R K.Smoking cessation:a model of planned vs.actual behavior for time-inconsistent consumers.Marketing Science,2007,26(6):834-850.
[14]黄楚新,商雅雯.论移动互联网背景下青年生活方式的嬗变.中国青年社会学,2017,36(4):59-64.HUANG Chuxin,SHANG Yawen.On the evolution of the youth lifestyle in the era of mobile internet.Journal of Chinese Youth Social Science,2017,36(4):59-64.(in Chinese)
[15]郭鹏,萧柏春,李军.收益管理中考虑顾客策略行为的多航班无约束估计方法.系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(5):1103-1115.GUO Peng,XIAO Baichun,LI Jun.Multi-flight unconstraining method of considering strategic costomer behavior in revenue management.Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2015,35(5):1103-1115.(in Chinese)
[16]段菲菲,翟姗姗,池毛毛,等.手机游戏用户粘性影响机制研究:整合Flow理论和TAM理论.图书情报工作,2017,61(3):21-28.DUAN Feifei,ZHAI Shanshan,CHI Maomao,et al.Empirical research of the user stickiness of mobile game:the integration theory of Flow and TAM.Library and Information Service,2017,61(3):21-28.(in Chinese)
[17]刁雅静,何有世,王念新,等.商品类型对消费者评论认知的影响:基于眼动实验.管理科学,2017,30(5):3-16.DIAO Yajing,HE Youshi,WANG Nianxin,et al.How the product type influences consumer cognition about online review:an eye-tracking experiment.Journal of Management Science,2017,30(5):3-16.(in Chinese)
[18]毛照昉,刘弯弯,李辉.季节性易逝品预售与回购联合决策研究.管理科学学报,2016,19(2):74-84.MAO Zhaofang,LIU Wanwan,LI Hui.Joint strategy of advance-selling and buy-back for seasonal perishable products.Journal of Management Sciences in China,2016,19(2):74-84.(in Chinese)
[19]白江涛,许长延.高科技新创产品的预售众筹规模测算研究.科学学与科学技术管理,2016,37(11):128-135.BAI Jiangtao,XU Changyan.The research on the preordingcrowdfunding scale of tech-startups products.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2016,37(11):128-135.(in Chinese)
[20]SWINNEY R.Selling to strategic consumers when product value is uncertain:the value of matching supply and demand.Management Science,2011,57(10):1737-1751.
[21]GUO L.Service cancellation and competitive refund policy.Marketing Science,2009,28(5):901-917.
[22]JING X Q,XIE J H.Group buying:a new mechanism for selling through social interactions.Management Science,2011,57(8):1354-1372.
[23]李辉,齐二石.基于市场规模不确定条件下的销售商预售策略研究.中国管理科学,2017,25(2):50-56.LI Hui,QI Ershi.Advance selling in the presence of uncertainty market size.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(2):50-56.(in Chinese)
[24]牛志勇,高维和,江若尘.公平偏好下的渠道成员价格决策及其动态检验.管理科学,2013,26(1):48-57.NIU Zhiyong,GAO Weihe,JIANG Ruochen.Research on channel members'price decision and its dynamic tests based on fairness preference.Journal of Management Science,2013,26(1):48-57.(in Chinese)
[25]单汨源,杨沛,张人龙.网络预售模式下消费者购买意愿的影响因素.经济经纬,2014,31(5):98-102.SHAN Miyuan,YANG Pei,ZHANG Renlong.The influencing factors of consumers'purchase intention in the internet advanced sale.Economic Survey,2014,31(5):98-102.(in Chinese)
[26]NASIRY J,POPESCU I.Advance selling when consumers regret.Management Science,2012,58(6):1160-1177.
[27]LIM W S,TANG C S.Advance selling in the presence of speculators and forward-looking consumers.Production and Operations Management,2013,22(3):571-587.
[28]王建明,王丛丛,吴龙昌.绿色情感诉求对绿色购买决策过程的影响机制.管理科学,2017,30(5):38-56.WANG Jianming,WANG Congcong,WU Longchang.Mechanism of green emotional appeals impacting on the green purchase decision-making process.Journal of Management Science,2017,30(5):38-56.(in Chinese)
[29]白世贞,姜曼,徐娜.现售和预售集成模式下考虑消费者时间偏好的线上企业决策.软科学,2017,31(1):118-123.BAI Shizhen,JIANG Man,XU Na.The online seller's strategy based on customer time preference under advance selling and normal selling integration mode.Soft Science,2017,31(1):118-123.(in Chinese)
[30]CACHON G P,FELDMAN P.Is advance selling desirable with competition?.Marketing Science,2017,36(2):214-231.
[31]PRASAD A,STECKE K E,ZHAO X Y.Advance selling by a newsvendor retailer.Production and Operations Management,2011,20(1):129-142.
[32]LI C H,ZHANG F Q.Advance demand information,price discrimination,and pre-order strategies.Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2012,15(1):57-71.
[33]CHO S H,TANG C S.Advance selling in a supply chain under uncertain supply and demand.Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2013,15(2):305-319.
[34]单汨源,欧翠玲,张人龙.预售与正常销售集成模式下B2C企业退货策略.系统工程,2015,33(5):48-53.SHAN Miyuan,OU Cuiling,ZHANG Renlong.B2C enterprises'return policy under advance selling and normal sale integration mode.Systems Engineering,2015,33(5):48-53.(in Chinese)
[35]MOORTHY S,SRINIVASAN K.Signaling quality with a money-back guarantee:the role of transaction costs.Marketing Science,1995,14(4):442-466.
[36]DAVIS S,GERSTNER E,HAGERTY M.Money back guarantees in retailing:matching products to consumer tastes.Journal of Retailing,1995,71(1):7-22.
[37]FRUCHTER G E,GERSTNER E.Selling with“satisfaction guaranteed”.Journal of Service Research,1999,1(4):313-323.
[38]CHU W J,GERSTNER E,HESS J D.Managing dissatisfaction:how to decrease customer opportunism by partial refunds.Journal of Service Research,1998,1(2):140-155.
[39]XIE J H,GERSTNER E.Service escape:profiting from customer cancellations.Marketing Science,2007,26(1):18-30.
[40]WERTENBROCH K.Consumption self-control by rationing purchase quantities of virtue and vice.Marketing Science,1998,17(4):317-337.
[41]JAIN S.Marketing of vice goods:a strategic analysis of the package size decision.Marketing Science,2011,31(1):36-51.
[42]DOBSON P W,GERSTNER E.For a few cents more:why supersize unhealthy food?.Marketing Science,2010,29(4):770-778.
[2]SHUGAN S M,XIE J H.Advance pricing of services and other implications of separating purchase and consumption.Journal of Service Research,2000,2(3):227-239.
[3]但斌,郑开维,邵兵家.基于消费众筹的“互联网+”生鲜农产品供应链预售模式研究.农村经济,2017(2):83-88.DAN Bin,ZHENG Kaiwei,SHAO Bingjia.Internet-based crowdsourcing model for advance selling of agriculture products.Rural Economy,2017(2):83-88.(in Chinese)
[4]毛丽娟,郑清华.产品预售众筹模式下的会计处理探讨.财会通讯,2017(1):72-74.MAO Lijuan,ZHENG Qinghua.Accounting investigation for advance selling products.Communication of Finance and Accounting,2017(1):72-74.(in Chinese)
[5]叶芳,杜朝运.众筹参与者的行为决策机制:一个两阶段理论模型分析.金融经济学研究,2015,30(4):96-107.YE Fang,DU Chaoyun.The decision-making mechanism of the crowdfunding participants:a two-stage theoretical model analysis.Journal of Finance and Economics,2015,30(4):96-107.(in Chinese)
[6]周雄伟,李俊,蔡丹,等.预售背景下易逝品销售的时间策略研究.中国管理科学,2017,25(6):91-100.ZHOU Xiongwei,LI Jun,CAI Dan,et al.Marketing time strategy of advance selling for perishable goods.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(6):91-100.(in Chinese)
[7]VIGNA S D,MALMENDIER U.Contract design and selfcontrol:theory and evidence.The Quarterly Journal of Economics,2004,119(2):353-402.
[8]JAIN S.Self-control and optimal goals:a theoretical analysis.Marketing Science,2009,28(6):1027-1045.
[9]LAIBSON D.Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting.The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1997,112(2):443-478.
[10]SVENSON O.Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?.Acta Psychologica,1981,47(2):143-148.
[11]LARWOOD L,WHITTAKER W.Managerial myopia:selfserving biases in organizational planning.Journal of Applied Psychology,1977,62(2):194-198.
[12]THALER R H,SHEFRIN H M.An economic theory of self-control.Journal of Political Economy,1981,89(2):392-406.
[13]MACHADO F S,SINHA R K.Smoking cessation:a model of planned vs.actual behavior for time-inconsistent consumers.Marketing Science,2007,26(6):834-850.
[14]黄楚新,商雅雯.论移动互联网背景下青年生活方式的嬗变.中国青年社会学,2017,36(4):59-64.HUANG Chuxin,SHANG Yawen.On the evolution of the youth lifestyle in the era of mobile internet.Journal of Chinese Youth Social Science,2017,36(4):59-64.(in Chinese)
[15]郭鹏,萧柏春,李军.收益管理中考虑顾客策略行为的多航班无约束估计方法.系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(5):1103-1115.GUO Peng,XIAO Baichun,LI Jun.Multi-flight unconstraining method of considering strategic costomer behavior in revenue management.Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2015,35(5):1103-1115.(in Chinese)
[16]段菲菲,翟姗姗,池毛毛,等.手机游戏用户粘性影响机制研究:整合Flow理论和TAM理论.图书情报工作,2017,61(3):21-28.DUAN Feifei,ZHAI Shanshan,CHI Maomao,et al.Empirical research of the user stickiness of mobile game:the integration theory of Flow and TAM.Library and Information Service,2017,61(3):21-28.(in Chinese)
[17]刁雅静,何有世,王念新,等.商品类型对消费者评论认知的影响:基于眼动实验.管理科学,2017,30(5):3-16.DIAO Yajing,HE Youshi,WANG Nianxin,et al.How the product type influences consumer cognition about online review:an eye-tracking experiment.Journal of Management Science,2017,30(5):3-16.(in Chinese)
[18]毛照昉,刘弯弯,李辉.季节性易逝品预售与回购联合决策研究.管理科学学报,2016,19(2):74-84.MAO Zhaofang,LIU Wanwan,LI Hui.Joint strategy of advance-selling and buy-back for seasonal perishable products.Journal of Management Sciences in China,2016,19(2):74-84.(in Chinese)
[19]白江涛,许长延.高科技新创产品的预售众筹规模测算研究.科学学与科学技术管理,2016,37(11):128-135.BAI Jiangtao,XU Changyan.The research on the preordingcrowdfunding scale of tech-startups products.Science of Science and Management of S.&T.,2016,37(11):128-135.(in Chinese)
[20]SWINNEY R.Selling to strategic consumers when product value is uncertain:the value of matching supply and demand.Management Science,2011,57(10):1737-1751.
[21]GUO L.Service cancellation and competitive refund policy.Marketing Science,2009,28(5):901-917.
[22]JING X Q,XIE J H.Group buying:a new mechanism for selling through social interactions.Management Science,2011,57(8):1354-1372.
[23]李辉,齐二石.基于市场规模不确定条件下的销售商预售策略研究.中国管理科学,2017,25(2):50-56.LI Hui,QI Ershi.Advance selling in the presence of uncertainty market size.Chinese Journal of Management Science,2017,25(2):50-56.(in Chinese)
[24]牛志勇,高维和,江若尘.公平偏好下的渠道成员价格决策及其动态检验.管理科学,2013,26(1):48-57.NIU Zhiyong,GAO Weihe,JIANG Ruochen.Research on channel members'price decision and its dynamic tests based on fairness preference.Journal of Management Science,2013,26(1):48-57.(in Chinese)
[25]单汨源,杨沛,张人龙.网络预售模式下消费者购买意愿的影响因素.经济经纬,2014,31(5):98-102.SHAN Miyuan,YANG Pei,ZHANG Renlong.The influencing factors of consumers'purchase intention in the internet advanced sale.Economic Survey,2014,31(5):98-102.(in Chinese)
[26]NASIRY J,POPESCU I.Advance selling when consumers regret.Management Science,2012,58(6):1160-1177.
[27]LIM W S,TANG C S.Advance selling in the presence of speculators and forward-looking consumers.Production and Operations Management,2013,22(3):571-587.
[28]王建明,王丛丛,吴龙昌.绿色情感诉求对绿色购买决策过程的影响机制.管理科学,2017,30(5):38-56.WANG Jianming,WANG Congcong,WU Longchang.Mechanism of green emotional appeals impacting on the green purchase decision-making process.Journal of Management Science,2017,30(5):38-56.(in Chinese)
[29]白世贞,姜曼,徐娜.现售和预售集成模式下考虑消费者时间偏好的线上企业决策.软科学,2017,31(1):118-123.BAI Shizhen,JIANG Man,XU Na.The online seller's strategy based on customer time preference under advance selling and normal selling integration mode.Soft Science,2017,31(1):118-123.(in Chinese)
[30]CACHON G P,FELDMAN P.Is advance selling desirable with competition?.Marketing Science,2017,36(2):214-231.
[31]PRASAD A,STECKE K E,ZHAO X Y.Advance selling by a newsvendor retailer.Production and Operations Management,2011,20(1):129-142.
[32]LI C H,ZHANG F Q.Advance demand information,price discrimination,and pre-order strategies.Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2012,15(1):57-71.
[33]CHO S H,TANG C S.Advance selling in a supply chain under uncertain supply and demand.Manufacturing&Service Operations Management,2013,15(2):305-319.
[34]单汨源,欧翠玲,张人龙.预售与正常销售集成模式下B2C企业退货策略.系统工程,2015,33(5):48-53.SHAN Miyuan,OU Cuiling,ZHANG Renlong.B2C enterprises'return policy under advance selling and normal sale integration mode.Systems Engineering,2015,33(5):48-53.(in Chinese)
[35]MOORTHY S,SRINIVASAN K.Signaling quality with a money-back guarantee:the role of transaction costs.Marketing Science,1995,14(4):442-466.
[36]DAVIS S,GERSTNER E,HAGERTY M.Money back guarantees in retailing:matching products to consumer tastes.Journal of Retailing,1995,71(1):7-22.
[37]FRUCHTER G E,GERSTNER E.Selling with“satisfaction guaranteed”.Journal of Service Research,1999,1(4):313-323.
[38]CHU W J,GERSTNER E,HESS J D.Managing dissatisfaction:how to decrease customer opportunism by partial refunds.Journal of Service Research,1998,1(2):140-155.
[39]XIE J H,GERSTNER E.Service escape:profiting from customer cancellations.Marketing Science,2007,26(1):18-30.
[40]WERTENBROCH K.Consumption self-control by rationing purchase quantities of virtue and vice.Marketing Science,1998,17(4):317-337.
[41]JAIN S.Marketing of vice goods:a strategic analysis of the package size decision.Marketing Science,2011,31(1):36-51.
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