考虑冰灾环境的配电网态势感知和薄弱环节辨识方法
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摘要
建立了一种考虑冰灾环境的配电网态势感知框架及薄弱环节辨识方法。通过综合考虑气象、地理系统、电力系统及社会资源的多源信息并分析其相关性,提出包含线路段实时风险态势、供电设备风险态势、防御风险态势、灾害故障态势和网络拓扑态势的综合态势感知框架,改变了以往仅通过线路覆冰情况预测配电网故障的局限性,修正了配网线路覆冰模型,并构建了线路段综合薄弱性指标(linesegment comprehensive vulnerability index,LSCVI)衡量线路段的薄弱程度,提升了配电网薄弱环节的辨识能力。最后通过东北某受灾区的实例分析,验证了所提方法的正确性和有效性,对冰灾时配电网的主动防御具有重要意义。
A multi-source situation awareness framework and a weakness identification method for distribution network considering ice disaster are proposed in this paper. Based on analysis of multi-source information from geographic system, meteorological system, power system and social resources, this paper proposed an integrated situation awareness framework including line segments real-time risk, power supply equipment risk, defense risk, disaster failure and network topology, and overcame the limitation of predicting fault probability only through line icing. The ice model of distribution line was modified and a line segment comprehensive vulnerability index(LSCVI) was established to measure the degree of weakness and improve the identification ability of weakness. Finally, correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified through case study of a large city in Northeast China. It is of great significance for timeliness and accuracy of distribution network active defense toward ice disaster.
A multi-source situation awareness framework and a weakness identification method for distribution network considering ice disaster are proposed in this paper. Based on analysis of multi-source information from geographic system, meteorological system, power system and social resources, this paper proposed an integrated situation awareness framework including line segments real-time risk, power supply equipment risk, defense risk, disaster failure and network topology, and overcame the limitation of predicting fault probability only through line icing. The ice model of distribution line was modified and a line segment comprehensive vulnerability index(LSCVI) was established to measure the degree of weakness and improve the identification ability of weakness. Finally, correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified through case study of a large city in Northeast China. It is of great significance for timeliness and accuracy of distribution network active defense toward ice disaster.
引文
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[14]段杰,王秀丽,侯雨伸.基于模糊专家系统的输电线路分段冰风荷载等效停运率模型[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(8):220-228.Duan Jie,Wang Xiuli,Hou Yushen.Piecewise equivalent model of ice disaster impact on outage rate of transmission lines using fuzzy expert system[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(8):220-228(in Chinese).
[15]林济铿,杨添剀,胡世俊,等.基于模糊聚类和最短路径的关键输电断面确定新方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(5):134-141.Lin Jikeng,Yang Tiankai,Hu Shijun,et al.A new fast search method of key power flow transfer section based on random fuzziness clustering algorithm and shortest path algorithm[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(5):134-141(in Chinese).
[16]王建,熊小伏,梁允,等.地理气象相关的输电线路风险差异评价方法及指标[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(5):1252-1259.Wang Jian,Xiong Xiaofu,Liang Yun,et al.Geographical and meteorological factor related transmission line risk difference assessment:method and indexes[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(5):1252-1259(in Chinese).
[17]刘林,黄天恩,符杨,等.考虑气象因素的关键断面神经网络预测方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(11):3439-3405.Liu Lin,Huang Tian’en,Fu Yang,et al.A prediction method based on neural network considering impact of meteorological condition on power grid security[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(11):3439-3405(in Chinese).
[18]程林,刘满君,易俊,等.基于运行可靠性模型的连锁故障模拟及薄弱环节分析[J].电网技术,2016,40(5):1488-1494.Cheng Lin,Liu Manjun,Yi Jun,et al.The power system cascading outage simulation and vulnerability analysis based on operational reliability model[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(5):1488-1494(in Chinese).
[19]Wang S,Han L,Wu L.Uncertainty tracing of distributed generations via complex affine arithmetic based unbalanced three-phase power flow[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2015,30(6):3053-3062.
[20]李二霞,亢超群,李玉凌,等.基于设备状态评价和电网损失风险的配电网检修计划优化模型[J].高电压技术,2018,44(11):3751-3759.Li Erxia,Kang Chaoqun,Li Yuling,et al.Optimization model of distribution network maintenance plan based on equipment condition evaluation and grid loss risk[J].High Voltage Engineering,2018,44(11):3751-3759(in Chinese).
[21]石立宝,简洲.基于动态攻防博弈的电力信息物理融合系统脆弱性评估[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(17):99-105.Shi Libao,Jian Zhou.Vulnerability assessment of cyber physical power system based on dynamic attack-defense game model[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(17):99-105(in Chinese).
[22]Chen G,Dong Z Y,Hill D J,et al.Exploring reliable strategies for defending power systems against targeted attacks[J].IEEETransactions on Power Systems,2011,26(3):1000-1009.
[23]刁塑,刘友波,刘俊勇,等.电力系统连锁故障的多层时序运行演化模型与应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(S1):82-92.Diao Su,Liu Youbo,Liu Junyong,et al.Cascading failure feature analysis based on time-series operation evolution model[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,33(S1):82-92(in Chinese).
[2]刘道伟,张东霞,孙华东,等.时空大数据环境下的大电网稳定态势量化评估与自适应防控体系构建[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(2):268-276.Liu Daowei,Zhang Dongxia,Sun Huadong,et al.Construction of stability situation quantitative assessment and adaptive control system for large-scale power grid in the spatio-temporal big data environment[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(2):268-276(in Chinese).
[3]董雷,陈卉,蒲天骄,等.基于模型预测控制的主动配电网多时间尺度动态优化调度[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(17):4609-4616.Dong Lei,Chen Hui,Pu Tianjiao,et al.Multi-time scale dynamic optimal dispatch in active distribution network based on model predictive control[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(17):4609-4616(in Chinese).
[4]吴茜,张东霞,刘道伟,等.基于随机矩阵理论的电网静态稳定态势评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(20):5414-5420.Wu Qian,Zhang Dongxia,Liu Daowei,et al.A method for power system steady stability situation assessment based on random matrix theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(20):5414-5420(in Chinese).
[5]刘威,张东霞,王新迎,等.基于随机矩阵理论的电力系统暂态稳定性分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(18):4854-4863,5109.Liu Wei,Zhang Dongxia,Wang Xinying,et al.Power system transient stability analysis based on random matrix theory[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(18):4854-4863,5109(in Chinese).
[6]黄蔓云,卫志农,孙国强,等.基于历史数据挖掘的配电网态势感知方法[J].电网技术,2017,41(4):1139-1145.Huang Manyun,Wei Zhinong,Sun Guoqiang,et al.A novel situation awareness approach based on historical data-mining model in distribution network[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(4):1139-1145(in Chinese).
[7]Arghandeh R,Von Meier A,Mehrmanesh L,et al.On the definition of cyber-physical resilience in power systems[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016(58):1060-1069.
[8]Wang Z,Wang J.Self-healing resilient distribution systems based on sectionalization into microgrids[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2015,30(6):3139-3149.
[9]谢云云,薛禹胜,文福拴,等.冰灾对输电线故障率影响的时空评估[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(18):32-41.Xie Yunyun,Xue Yusheng,Wen Fushuan,et al.Space-time evaluation for impact of ice disaster on transmission line fault probability[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(18):32-41(in Chinese).
[10]侯俊贤,吴军,董飞飞,等.考虑综合故障率的线路分段差异化规划方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(21):5437-5445.Hou Junxian,Wu Jun,Dong Feifei,et al.A method of line segment differentiation planning considering comprehensive fault rate[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(21):5437-5445(in Chinese).
[11]Chen Lizheng,Zhang Hengxu,Wu Qiuwzi,et al.A numerical approach for hybrid simulation of power system dynamics considering extreme icing events[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2018,9(5):5038-5046.
[12]Yang Hongming,Chung C Y,Zhao Junhua,et al.A probability model of ice storm damages to transmission facilities[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2013,28(2):557-565.
[13]马小敏,高剑,吴驰,等.基于灰色支持向量机的输电线路覆冰厚度预测模型[J].中国电力,2016,49(11):46-50.Ma Xiaomin,Gao Jian,Wu Chi,et al.Prediction model for icing thickness of power transmission line based on grey support vector machine[J].Electric Power,2016,49(11):46-50(in Chinese).
[14]段杰,王秀丽,侯雨伸.基于模糊专家系统的输电线路分段冰风荷载等效停运率模型[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(8):220-228.Duan Jie,Wang Xiuli,Hou Yushen.Piecewise equivalent model of ice disaster impact on outage rate of transmission lines using fuzzy expert system[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(8):220-228(in Chinese).
[15]林济铿,杨添剀,胡世俊,等.基于模糊聚类和最短路径的关键输电断面确定新方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(5):134-141.Lin Jikeng,Yang Tiankai,Hu Shijun,et al.A new fast search method of key power flow transfer section based on random fuzziness clustering algorithm and shortest path algorithm[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(5):134-141(in Chinese).
[16]王建,熊小伏,梁允,等.地理气象相关的输电线路风险差异评价方法及指标[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(5):1252-1259.Wang Jian,Xiong Xiaofu,Liang Yun,et al.Geographical and meteorological factor related transmission line risk difference assessment:method and indexes[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(5):1252-1259(in Chinese).
[17]刘林,黄天恩,符杨,等.考虑气象因素的关键断面神经网络预测方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(11):3439-3405.Liu Lin,Huang Tian’en,Fu Yang,et al.A prediction method based on neural network considering impact of meteorological condition on power grid security[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(11):3439-3405(in Chinese).
[18]程林,刘满君,易俊,等.基于运行可靠性模型的连锁故障模拟及薄弱环节分析[J].电网技术,2016,40(5):1488-1494.Cheng Lin,Liu Manjun,Yi Jun,et al.The power system cascading outage simulation and vulnerability analysis based on operational reliability model[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(5):1488-1494(in Chinese).
[19]Wang S,Han L,Wu L.Uncertainty tracing of distributed generations via complex affine arithmetic based unbalanced three-phase power flow[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2015,30(6):3053-3062.
[20]李二霞,亢超群,李玉凌,等.基于设备状态评价和电网损失风险的配电网检修计划优化模型[J].高电压技术,2018,44(11):3751-3759.Li Erxia,Kang Chaoqun,Li Yuling,et al.Optimization model of distribution network maintenance plan based on equipment condition evaluation and grid loss risk[J].High Voltage Engineering,2018,44(11):3751-3759(in Chinese).
[21]石立宝,简洲.基于动态攻防博弈的电力信息物理融合系统脆弱性评估[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(17):99-105.Shi Libao,Jian Zhou.Vulnerability assessment of cyber physical power system based on dynamic attack-defense game model[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(17):99-105(in Chinese).
[22]Chen G,Dong Z Y,Hill D J,et al.Exploring reliable strategies for defending power systems against targeted attacks[J].IEEETransactions on Power Systems,2011,26(3):1000-1009.
[23]刁塑,刘友波,刘俊勇,等.电力系统连锁故障的多层时序运行演化模型与应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(S1):82-92.Diao Su,Liu Youbo,Liu Junyong,et al.Cascading failure feature analysis based on time-series operation evolution model[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,33(S1):82-92(in Chinese).