产业协同集聚对全要素生产率影响的门槛效应研究——基于中国246个城市的实证检验
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摘要
在借助一般门槛模型估计门槛值的基础上,利用门槛值生成虚拟变量来构建分段函数以求解模型参数,并进一步利用中国246个地级及以上城市2003—2016年的面板数据进行实证检验,结果发现:当制造业专业化集聚度分别跨越门槛值1.0299、2.1741、2.0651后,生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚对全要素生产率、纯效率改善和生产规模变化的影响均由负转正,而跨过门槛值2.1741后对纯技术进步的正向影响却由正转负;当以生产性服务业专业化集聚度为门槛变量时,生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚对全要素生产率及其分解指标的门槛效应不显著或不存在。
Based on the estimation of the threshold value with reference to the general threshold model, this paper constructs piecewise function to solve model parameters by using virtual variable generated from the threshold value. Then the paper carries out an empirical test using the panel data of 246 cities of prefecture-level and above in China during 2003-2016. It is found that the effect of industrial co-agglomeration with producer services on TFP(total factor productivity), PEC(pure efficiency change) and production scale change turns from negative to positive after the threshold value of 1.0299, 2.1741 and 2.0651 are passed respectively in the specialized agglomeration index of manufacturing, while this effect on pure technological progress turns from positive to negative after reaching the threshold value of 2.1741. With the specialized agglomeration of producer services being the threshold variable, the threshold effect of industrial co-agglomeration on TFP and its decomposition indicators is not significant, or even null.
Based on the estimation of the threshold value with reference to the general threshold model, this paper constructs piecewise function to solve model parameters by using virtual variable generated from the threshold value. Then the paper carries out an empirical test using the panel data of 246 cities of prefecture-level and above in China during 2003-2016. It is found that the effect of industrial co-agglomeration with producer services on TFP(total factor productivity), PEC(pure efficiency change) and production scale change turns from negative to positive after the threshold value of 1.0299, 2.1741 and 2.0651 are passed respectively in the specialized agglomeration index of manufacturing, while this effect on pure technological progress turns from positive to negative after reaching the threshold value of 2.1741. With the specialized agglomeration of producer services being the threshold variable, the threshold effect of industrial co-agglomeration on TFP and its decomposition indicators is not significant, or even null.
引文
陈国亮,陈建军. 2012.产业关联、空间地理与二三产业共同集聚 [J]. 管理世界(4):82-100.
洪功翔,张兰婷,李伟军. 2014.金融集聚对全要素生产率影响的区域异质性[J].经济经纬 (4):7-12.
李梅,柳士昌. 2012.对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的地区差异和门槛效应[J].管理世界(1):21-32.
李子叶,韩先锋, 冯根福. 2015.我国生产性服务业集聚对经济增长方式转变的影响[J].经济管理(12):21-30.
单豪杰. 2008.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952～2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究(10):17-31.
孙晓华,郭玉娇. 2013.产业集聚提高了城市生产率吗?[J].财经研究(2):103-112.
王丽丽,范爱军. 2009.空间集聚与全要素生产率增长[J].财贸经济(12):105-110.
王燕, 徐妍. 2012.中国制造业空间集聚对全要素生产率的影响机理研究[J].财经研究(3):135-144.
王艺明,陈晨, 高思航. 2016.中国城市全要素生产率估算与分析:2000-2013[J].经济问题(8):1-8.
伍先福, 杨永德. 2016.生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚提升了城镇化水平吗[J].财经科学(11):79-90.
肖攀,李连友,唐李伟,等. 2013.中国城市环境全要素生产率及其影响因素分析[J].管理学报(11):1681-1689.
杨仁发. 2013.产业集聚与地区工资差距[J].管理世界(8):41-52.
HANSEN B E.1999. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2):345-368.
HENDERSON J V. 2003.Marshall’s Scale Economies[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,53(1):1-28.
JACOBS J. 1970.The economy of cities.[C]// The economy of cities. Random House: 1018-1020.
MELO P C, GRAHAM D J, NOLAND R B. 2009.A meta-analysis of estimates of urban agglomeration economies [J]. Regional Science & Urban Economics , 39(3):332-342.
PORTER M E. 1998.Cluster and the new economics of competition[J]. Harvard Business Review,76(6):77-90.
RAY S C, DESLI E. 1997.Productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change in industrialized countries: Comment[J]. The American Economic Review,87(5):1033-1039.
(1)计算TFP指数的时间跨度为2002-2016年,其中,2002-2003年度的TFP数据对应产业协同集聚及其他变量2003年的数据,依此类推。
(2)Wald检验结果显示,lnmr为内生变量,因而对其进行了一阶滞后处理。
洪功翔,张兰婷,李伟军. 2014.金融集聚对全要素生产率影响的区域异质性[J].经济经纬 (4):7-12.
李梅,柳士昌. 2012.对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的地区差异和门槛效应[J].管理世界(1):21-32.
李子叶,韩先锋, 冯根福. 2015.我国生产性服务业集聚对经济增长方式转变的影响[J].经济管理(12):21-30.
单豪杰. 2008.中国资本存量K的再估算:1952～2006年[J].数量经济技术经济研究(10):17-31.
孙晓华,郭玉娇. 2013.产业集聚提高了城市生产率吗?[J].财经研究(2):103-112.
王丽丽,范爱军. 2009.空间集聚与全要素生产率增长[J].财贸经济(12):105-110.
王燕, 徐妍. 2012.中国制造业空间集聚对全要素生产率的影响机理研究[J].财经研究(3):135-144.
王艺明,陈晨, 高思航. 2016.中国城市全要素生产率估算与分析:2000-2013[J].经济问题(8):1-8.
伍先福, 杨永德. 2016.生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚提升了城镇化水平吗[J].财经科学(11):79-90.
肖攀,李连友,唐李伟,等. 2013.中国城市环境全要素生产率及其影响因素分析[J].管理学报(11):1681-1689.
杨仁发. 2013.产业集聚与地区工资差距[J].管理世界(8):41-52.
HANSEN B E.1999. Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference[J]. Journal of Econometrics, 93(2):345-368.
HENDERSON J V. 2003.Marshall’s Scale Economies[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,53(1):1-28.
JACOBS J. 1970.The economy of cities.[C]// The economy of cities. Random House: 1018-1020.
MELO P C, GRAHAM D J, NOLAND R B. 2009.A meta-analysis of estimates of urban agglomeration economies [J]. Regional Science & Urban Economics , 39(3):332-342.
PORTER M E. 1998.Cluster and the new economics of competition[J]. Harvard Business Review,76(6):77-90.
RAY S C, DESLI E. 1997.Productivity growth, technical progress, and efficiency change in industrialized countries: Comment[J]. The American Economic Review,87(5):1033-1039.
(1)计算TFP指数的时间跨度为2002-2016年,其中,2002-2003年度的TFP数据对应产业协同集聚及其他变量2003年的数据,依此类推。
(2)Wald检验结果显示,lnmr为内生变量,因而对其进行了一阶滞后处理。