铁路投资、周转量与经济发展相互作用分析
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摘要
研究目的:铁路运输业是我国交通运输网络中的中坚力量,与国民经济发展有着重要联系。选取铁路运输业固定资产投资、铁路运输业换算周转量、国内生产总值为研究变量,通过构建三元向量自回归模型,对三者进行格兰杰因果关系检验,找出三者之间是否具有相互促进作用,并分析原因,进而提出相关政策建议,以期为国家铁路政策的完善提供参考,更好地发挥铁路运输业的重要作用。研究结论:(1)铁路运输业的固定资产投资与换算周转量之间具有相互促进的作用;(2)铁路运输业换算周转量与国内生产总值之间具有相互促进的作用;(3)铁路运输业固定资产投资对国内生产总值具有单向促进作用,而国内生产总值的增加仅是为铁路运输业固定资产投资提供了潜在动力,并没有实际影响到铁路运输业固定资产投资的增加;(4)本研究成果可应用于铁路发展政策的进一步修改完善,为国家相关部门政策制定提供理论依据与决策参考,进而改善我国铁路运输状况,促进铁路运输发展。
Research purposes: Railway transportation industry is the major force in China' s transpotation network,which is closely related to the development of national economy. In this paper,fixed assets investment,converted turnover and gross domestic product were selected as the research variables,by building a ternary vector autoregressive model,the Granger causality test was carried out for the three,whether there is mutual promotion between the three and the reasons were analyzed,and then some suggestions were given,to provide a reference for the national railway policy and give full play to the important role of the railway transportation industry.Research conclusions:( 1) There is a mutual promotion between the fixed assets investment of the railway transportation industry and the converted turnover.( 2) There is a mutual promotion between the converted turnover and GDP.( 3) The fixed assets investment has a positive effect on GDP. And the increase of GDP only provides potential impetus for the investment of the fixed assets in railway transportation industry,but doesn' t actually affect the increase of fixed assets investment in railway transportation industry.( 4) The research results can be applied to the further modification and improvement of railway development policies.
Research purposes: Railway transportation industry is the major force in China' s transpotation network,which is closely related to the development of national economy. In this paper,fixed assets investment,converted turnover and gross domestic product were selected as the research variables,by building a ternary vector autoregressive model,the Granger causality test was carried out for the three,whether there is mutual promotion between the three and the reasons were analyzed,and then some suggestions were given,to provide a reference for the national railway policy and give full play to the important role of the railway transportation industry.Research conclusions:( 1) There is a mutual promotion between the fixed assets investment of the railway transportation industry and the converted turnover.( 2) There is a mutual promotion between the converted turnover and GDP.( 3) The fixed assets investment has a positive effect on GDP. And the increase of GDP only provides potential impetus for the investment of the fixed assets in railway transportation industry,but doesn' t actually affect the increase of fixed assets investment in railway transportation industry.( 4) The research results can be applied to the further modification and improvement of railway development policies.
引文
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[5]王富忠.铁路运输与经济发展的关系-自1952年以来的经验证据[J].浙江科技学院学报,2015(2):125-129.Wang Fuzhong.Relationship between Railway Transportation and Economic Development-Empirical Evidence Since 1952[J].Journal of Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,2015(2):125-129.
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[2]吴云勇,李文国.辽宁省交通运输业与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].辽宁工程技术大学学报:社会科学版,2006(5):480-482.Wu Yuyong,Li Wenguo.Analysis of the Relationship between Transportation and Economic Growth in Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Liaoning Technical University:Social Science Edition,2006(5):480-482.
[3]叶昌友,王遐见.交通基础设施、交通运输业与区域经济增长-基于省域数据的空间面板模型研究[J].产业经济研究,2013(2):40-47.Ye Changyou,Wang Xiajian.Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth in China-Based on Spatial Econometrics of Panel Data with Provincial Data[J].Industrial Economics Research,2013(2):40-47.
[4]吴继贵,叶阿忠.交通运输、经济增长和碳排放的动态关系研究-基于1949~2012年数据的实证分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2015(4):10-17.Wu Jigui,Ye Azhong.Dynamic Linkages among Transportation,Economic Growth and Carbon Emissions in China:Empirical Research on the Data from 1949 to 2012[J].Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology,2015(4):10-17.
[5]王富忠.铁路运输与经济发展的关系-自1952年以来的经验证据[J].浙江科技学院学报,2015(2):125-129.Wang Fuzhong.Relationship between Railway Transportation and Economic Development-Empirical Evidence Since 1952[J].Journal of Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,2015(2):125-129.
[6]武旭,王瑞军,胡思继.铁路运输与国民经济发展关系的交叉谱分析方法研究[J].中国软科学,2011(5):169-175.Wu Xu,Wang Ruijun,Hu Siji.Cross-spectra Analysis on Relationship between Railway Transportation and National Economy[J].China Soft Science,2011(5):169-175.