基于后验风险确定故障样本量的Bayes方法
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摘要
针对目前测试性故障样本量的确定方法过于粗糙和试验样本量过大的问题,提出了合理运用信息熵方法对装备系统各单元的测试性先验信息进行信息融合,得到装备系统级测试性试验数据。在此基础上得到测试性指标的先验分布,并进一步通过Bayes后验风险准则确定故障样本量及试验方案。以某型电动舵机系统各模块的试验数据为例,以故障检测率为测试性指标,经过分析和计算,发现运用所提方法得到的故障样本量相比传统方法明显减少,从而减少了试验成本,同时得到的测试性指标相对误差较小,保证了可信度。
In view of the problem that the old approach of determining the sample size is too rough and the test sample size is too large,a reasonable application of the information entropy method is proposed to obtain the test data of the equipment system by fusing the prior information of each unit of the equipment system.The testability indices of the prior distribution are obtained,and the fault sample size and the test scheme are further determined by Bayes posterior risk criterion.The test data of an electric actuator system's module are taken as an example and the failure detection rate is adopted as the test index.Compared with the traditional method,the failure sample quantity obtained by this method is reduced obviously through analysis and calculation,so the test cost is reduced.Meanwhile,the relative error of the test index is little,which guarantees the credibility.It is proved that the method reduces the test cost and guarantees the credibility.
In view of the problem that the old approach of determining the sample size is too rough and the test sample size is too large,a reasonable application of the information entropy method is proposed to obtain the test data of the equipment system by fusing the prior information of each unit of the equipment system.The testability indices of the prior distribution are obtained,and the fault sample size and the test scheme are further determined by Bayes posterior risk criterion.The test data of an electric actuator system's module are taken as an example and the failure detection rate is adopted as the test index.Compared with the traditional method,the failure sample quantity obtained by this method is reduced obviously through analysis and calculation,so the test cost is reduced.Meanwhile,the relative error of the test index is little,which guarantees the credibility.It is proved that the method reduces the test cost and guarantees the credibility.
引文
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[26]WANG P,ZHANG J,ZHAI H,et al.A new structural reliability index based on uncertainty theory[J].Chinese Journal of Aeronautics,2017,30(4):1451-1458.
[27]BAO B,YAN N,GENG W,et al.Simulation and experiment investigation on structural design and reinforcement of pyrotechnical sliding micro-actuators[J].Analog Integrated Circuits and Signal Processing,2016,88(3):431-441.
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[29]邱静,刘冠军,张勇,等.装备测试性试验与评价技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2017:60-61.QIU J,LIU G J,ZHANG Y,et al.Test and evaluation technology of equipment testability[M].Beijing:Science Press,2017:60-61.
[30]GJB2547A-2012.装备测试性工作通用要求[S].北京:总装备部,2012,7:15-17.GJB2547A-2012.General requirements for materiel testability program[S].Beijing:The General Equipment Department,2012,7:15-17.
[2]Department of Defense.MIL-HDBK-2165testability handbook for system and equipment[S].USA,1995:75-79.
[3]HUGHES T M.Testability Data analytic development:dimensions of software quality[M].New York:Wiley,2016.
[4]BARBOSA A M,NETO A C R,PINTO C E C,et al.Design for testability concepts applied to product development:an embraer aircraft[C]∥Proc.of the IEEE Autotestcon,2016:1-6.
[5]邓露,许爱强,吴忠德.基于遗传算法的故障样本优化选取方法[J].系统工程与电子技术,2015,37(7):1703-1708.DENG L,XU A Q,WU Z D.Method of failure sample optimization selection based on genetic algorithm[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2015,37(7):1703-1708.
[6]QIANG Y X,PEI L,YUN X.Testability allocation based on multi-objective genetic algorithm[C]∥Proc.of the 3rd International Conference Application of Materials Science and Environmental Materials,2016:101-107.
[7]WANG J,LI T,HE H,et al.Multi-source data equivalence methods for testability integrated evaluation[C]∥Proc.of the Prognostics and System Health Management Conference,2016:1-6.
[8]ZHAO C X,QIU J,LIU G J,et al.Planning,tracking and projecting method for testability growth based on in time correction[J].Proc.of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers,Part O:Journal of Risk and Reliability,2016,230(2):228-236.
[9]PAIGE R L,ZHAO R.Small sample equivalence tests for exponentiality[J].Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation,2018,47(6):1696-1703.
[10]RUDNER L M.Accuracy of Bayes and logistic regression subscale probabilities for educational and certification tests[J].Practical Assessment,Research and Evaluation,2016,21(8):1-10.
[11]KLEYNER A,ELMORE D,BOUKAI B,et al.A Bayesian approach to determine test sample size requirements for reliability demonstration retesting after product design change[J].Quality Engineering,2015,27(3):289-295.
[12]CHEN R,LIAN G,HUANG K,et al.Samples allocation method based on FMECA information for testability verification test[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2017,43(3):627-635.
[13]MIAO J Y,ZHANG X S,GENG M X,et al.Research on fusion method of prior information in maintainability test[C]∥Proc.of the International Conference on Instrumentation and Measurement Computer Communication and Control,2016:1026-1030.
[14]MYHRE J M,JESKE D R,LI J,et al.Combining binomial test data via two-stage solutions[J].Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry,2018,34(1):20-30.
[15]ZOU T J,DANG W,ZHANG G,et al.Prior distribution selection criterion in accelerated degradation testing Bayesian optimization design based on Bayes factors[C]∥Proc.of the International Conference on Sensing,Diagnostics,Prognostics,and Control,2017:694-698.
[16]JOHNSEN A,LUNDQVIST K,HANNINEN K,et al.Experience report:evaluating fault detection effectiveness and resource efficiency of the architecture quality assurance framework and tool[C]∥Proc.of the International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering,2017:271-281.
[17]LI S,MA H,SAHA T,et al.Bayesian information fusion for probabilistic health index of power transformer[J].IET Generation,Transmission&Distribution,2018,12(2):279-287.
[18]KLEYNER A,ELMORE D,BOUKAI B,et al.A Bayesian approach to determine test sample size requirements for reliability demonstration retesting after product design change[J].Quality Engineering,2015,27(3):289-295.
[19]SEO S K.A statistical design of Bayesian two-stage reliability demonstration test for product qualification in development[J].Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers,2017,43(2):147-153.
[20]LU L,YANG J,WANG M.A Bayes method for assessing large-scale electronic equipment reliability during external field test[C]∥Proc.of the 6th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation,2016:237-244.
[21]LIU Y,JIANG T,LIN P.Optimal testing resources allocation for improving reliability assessment of non-repairable multistate systems[M]∥Recent Advances in Multi-state Systems Reliability.Cham:Springer,2017:241-264.
[22]XU W,LI M,WANG X.Information fusion based on information entropy in fuzzy multi-source incomplete information system[J].International Journal of Fuzzy Systems,2016,19(4):1-17.
[23]XIE H,LIU G,YANG P,et al.Testability index allocation based on system integration[C]∥Proc.of the Prognostics and System Health Management Conference,2017:1-5.
[24]王京,李天梅,何华锋,等.多源测试性综合评估数据等效折合模型与方法研究[J].兵工学报,2017,38(1):151-159.WANG J,LI T M,HE H F.Research on multi-source data equivalent methods for testability integrated evaluation[J].Acta Armamentarii,2017,38(1):151-159.
[25]VANDERHORN E,MAHADEVAN S.Bayesian model updating with summarized statistical and reliability data[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2018,172:12-24.
[26]WANG P,ZHANG J,ZHAI H,et al.A new structural reliability index based on uncertainty theory[J].Chinese Journal of Aeronautics,2017,30(4):1451-1458.
[27]BAO B,YAN N,GENG W,et al.Simulation and experiment investigation on structural design and reinforcement of pyrotechnical sliding micro-actuators[J].Analog Integrated Circuits and Signal Processing,2016,88(3):431-441.
[28]GURAV B,ECONOMOU J,SADDINGTON A,et al.Multi-mode electric actuator dynamic modelling for missile fin control[J].Aerospace,2017,30(4):1-23.
[29]邱静,刘冠军,张勇,等.装备测试性试验与评价技术[M].北京:科学出版社,2017:60-61.QIU J,LIU G J,ZHANG Y,et al.Test and evaluation technology of equipment testability[M].Beijing:Science Press,2017:60-61.
[30]GJB2547A-2012.装备测试性工作通用要求[S].北京:总装备部,2012,7:15-17.GJB2547A-2012.General requirements for materiel testability program[S].Beijing:The General Equipment Department,2012,7:15-17.