基于灰色系统GM(1,1)千将坪滑坡变形监测分析
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摘要
滑坡在世界范围内广泛分布,我国地域辽阔,有着较为复杂的地理环境,是世界上受灾害影响十分严重的国家之一。2003年7月13日在湖北省秭归县发生千将坪滑坡,由于千将坪滑坡是发生在三峡库区蓄水达到135 m后,因此,受到国内外众多研究机构及学者的关注。本文主要利用千将坪滑坡体上安置的大量GPS监测点,依据监测点在滑坡体上的展布情况及数据完整程度选取特征点进行研究,通过编程建立千将坪滑坡灰色系统GM(1,1)位移预测模型,综合分析预测滑坡变形情况并进行精度评价。
Landslide is widely distributed throughout the world,China's vast territory,has a more complex geographical environment background,China is the world affected by disasters is very serious. July 13,2003 occurred in Zigui County,Hubei Qianping Ping landslides,because Qianjiangping landslide occurred in the Three Gorges reservoir water reached 135 m,therefore,by many domestic and foreign research institutions and scholars attention. In this paper,a large number of GPS monitoring points placed on the Qianjiangping landslide body are mainly used to study the selection of the characteristic points according to the distribution of the monitoring points on the landslide body and the data completeness. The gray system GM( 1,1) displacement prediction model establishment and related functions,comprehensive analysis and prediction of landslide deformation and accuracy evaluation.
Landslide is widely distributed throughout the world,China's vast territory,has a more complex geographical environment background,China is the world affected by disasters is very serious. July 13,2003 occurred in Zigui County,Hubei Qianping Ping landslides,because Qianjiangping landslide occurred in the Three Gorges reservoir water reached 135 m,therefore,by many domestic and foreign research institutions and scholars attention. In this paper,a large number of GPS monitoring points placed on the Qianjiangping landslide body are mainly used to study the selection of the characteristic points according to the distribution of the monitoring points on the landslide body and the data completeness. The gray system GM( 1,1) displacement prediction model establishment and related functions,comprehensive analysis and prediction of landslide deformation and accuracy evaluation.
引文
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[6]温丽华.灰色系统极其理论[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2003.
[7]王忠桃.灰色预测模型相关技术研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2008.
[2]肖诗荣,刘德富,胡志宇.三峡库区千将坪滑坡高速滑动机制研究[J].岩土力学,2010,31(11):3 531-3 536.
[3]姜清辉,张煜,罗先启,等.千将坪滑坡三维极限平衡分析[C]//中国水利学会岩土力学专业委员会.第一届中国水利水电岩土力学与工程学术讨论会论文集(上册)北京:中国水利学会岩土力学专业委员会:2006.
[4]颜井方,文宝萍.三峡库区千将坪滑坡失稳机制数值分析[C]//中国老教授协会土木建筑(含建筑物改造与病害处理)专业委员会全国第九届建筑物改造与病害处理学术研讨会论文集北京:中国老教授协会土木建筑(含建筑物改造与病害处理)专业委员会,2011.
[5]邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M].武汉:华中科技大学出版社,2003.
[6]温丽华.灰色系统极其理论[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工程大学,2003.
[7]王忠桃.灰色预测模型相关技术研究[D].成都:西南交通大学,2008.