丽江烟区烤烟大田期的降水变化趋势分析
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摘要
为进一步明确丽江烟区烤烟大田生育期降水资源的时空分布特征,采用线性趋势拟合和"逐步回归的趋势面模拟+残差内插"法对丽江主产烟区4个气候观测站1959—2009年的降水量数据进行了分析。结果表明,丽江烟区降雨充沛,烤烟全生育期平均降水量760.61 mm,降水量时间变化为移栽至团棵期少、旺长期和成熟期较多,适宜优质烟叶的生产,但各年份及各生育期间降水变率较大,空间分布呈现出由东北向西南逐级递减的趋势。烤烟各生育期降水大约10年为1个周期,呈倒S型曲线变化,预测2010—2020年丽江烟区烤烟移栽至团棵期降水呈下降趋势,旺长期和成熟期降水呈增加趋势。
Based on the precipitation data from 1959 to 2009 in Lijiang, linear trend equation and regression trendliness models were used to estimate the characteristics and change trend of precipitation during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco. The results showed that the precipitation variability was big among years and growth stages of flue-cured tobacco in the areas, while the precipitation in the most years could meet water requirements of flue-cured tobacco. The mean of precipitation is 760.61 mm during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco According to the simulations, the precipitation during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco in Lijiang appeared to have remarkable difference, where a clearly downward tendency from northeast to southwest could be seen. In the last 51 years, the precipitation during transplanting to maturation stages of flue-cured tobacco showed inverted S-shaped curve in a 10-year cycle. The preliminary forecasted that precipitation decreasing trend during transplanting to resettling growth stage and precipitation increasing trend during vigorous to maturation stage from 2010 to 2020.
Based on the precipitation data from 1959 to 2009 in Lijiang, linear trend equation and regression trendliness models were used to estimate the characteristics and change trend of precipitation during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco. The results showed that the precipitation variability was big among years and growth stages of flue-cured tobacco in the areas, while the precipitation in the most years could meet water requirements of flue-cured tobacco. The mean of precipitation is 760.61 mm during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco According to the simulations, the precipitation during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco in Lijiang appeared to have remarkable difference, where a clearly downward tendency from northeast to southwest could be seen. In the last 51 years, the precipitation during transplanting to maturation stages of flue-cured tobacco showed inverted S-shaped curve in a 10-year cycle. The preliminary forecasted that precipitation decreasing trend during transplanting to resettling growth stage and precipitation increasing trend during vigorous to maturation stage from 2010 to 2020.
引文
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[3]汪耀富,蔡寒玉,张晓海,等.我国烟草优化灌溉技术发展的策略与措施[J].中国烟草科学,2007,28(1):6-9,39.
[4]王丙春,毛焕兰,郑云松,等.丽江金沙江区域烤烟生产农业气象条件分析[J].云南地理环境研究,2010,22(3):95-98,110.
[5]杨坤,杨焕文,李佛琳,等.丽江烟区生态条件及烤烟化学成分分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(1):94-99.
[6]陈茂建,何其晶,李成杰,等.丽江主产烟区大田期气象条件与烟叶化学成分关系的初步研究[J].云南农业大学学报,2011,26(S2):21-24,56.
[7]汪耀富,蔡寒玉,张晓海,等.黔中地区烤烟大田期的降水变化趋势分析[J].河南农业科学,2007(2):28-31.
[8]胡豪然,梁玲.近50年青藏高原东部降水的时空变化特征[J].高原山地气象研究,2013,33(4):1-7,15.
[9]段建军,王小利,高照良,等.黄土高原地区50年降水时空动态与趋势分析[J].水土保持学报,2009,23(5):143-146.
[10]沈红,刘文兆.基于宏观地理因子估算黄土高原地区降水资源空间分布[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(1):237-241.
[11]姜朋辉,赵锐锋,赵海莉,等.黑河中游湿地景观破碎化与气候变化的关系[J].应用生态学报,2013,24(6):1661-1668.
[12]汪耀富,蔡寒玉,李进平,等.不同供水条件下土壤水分与烤烟蒸腾耗水的关系[J].农业工程学报,2007,23(1):19-23.
[13]段淑辉,杨亿军,刘建利,等.烟草需水规律研究进展[J].中国烟草科学,2012,33(4):99-105.
[14]路永恒.生态条件对烟叶品质影响的研究进展[J].中国烟草科学,2007,28(3):43-46.
[15]张波,王树声,史万华,等.凉山烟区气象因子与烤烟烟叶化学成分含量的关系[J].中国烟草科学,2010,31(3):13-17.
[16]陈爱国,戴培刚,白万明,等.南平烟叶大田生长期降水变化的多时间尺度分析[J].中国烟草科学,2012,33(3):52-55.