武清区温度精细化预报服务系统设计与应用
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摘要
利用武清国家一般气象站和28个区域自动气象站2013—2015年的逐日常规气象观测数据和2014—2016年天津市气象台和欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather,ECMWF)对武清站预报的最低、最高温度数据,分析不同天气条件下的温度预报规律,分别建立各镇街的温度预报模型,利用得到的预报模型结果,开发完成了"武清区温度精细化预报服务系统",并实现业务化运行。该系统实现了监测预报的查询、显示,精细化预报与服务产品制作、历史数据管理下载、预报检验、用户系统管理等功能,可为武清区精细化预报服务业务提供技术支撑。
In this paper, temperature forecast discipline under different weather conditions studied with general daily meteorological observation data of Wuqing National General Weather Station and 28 regional automatic weather stations from 2013 to2015, the forecasting data of minimum and maximum temperature for Wuqing Station by Tianjin Meteorological Observatory and ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather) during 2014-2016,and then to derive forecast models of temperature for towns and streets. Using the results obtained,"Wuqing District Temperature Refinement Forecast Service System " was developed and operationalized. This system implements functions such as inquiry and display of monitoring and forecasting data, refinement forecasting and production of service products, management and downloading of historical data, forecast verification, and management of user system, which provide technical support for the refinement forecast service business in Wuqing District.
In this paper, temperature forecast discipline under different weather conditions studied with general daily meteorological observation data of Wuqing National General Weather Station and 28 regional automatic weather stations from 2013 to2015, the forecasting data of minimum and maximum temperature for Wuqing Station by Tianjin Meteorological Observatory and ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather) during 2014-2016,and then to derive forecast models of temperature for towns and streets. Using the results obtained,"Wuqing District Temperature Refinement Forecast Service System " was developed and operationalized. This system implements functions such as inquiry and display of monitoring and forecasting data, refinement forecasting and production of service products, management and downloading of historical data, forecast verification, and management of user system, which provide technical support for the refinement forecast service business in Wuqing District.
引文
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[5]连志鸾,李国翠,卞韬,等.基于多级相似—差额方法制作乡镇气温预报[J].气象,2008,34(5):114-117.
[6]刘抗,李照荣,杨瑞鸿,等.甘肃省乡镇精细化客观要素预报方法研究[J].干旱气象,2015,33(5):882-887.
[7]李兵,王青川,王发科,等.格尔木辖区气温精细化预报方法研究[J].青海气象,2013,2013(3):17-19.
[8]黄治勇,张文,陈璇,等.湖北省乡镇温度预报方法初探[J].气象,2011,37(12):1578-1583.
[9]吴振玲,张楠,徐姝,等.基于天津局地小气候分区的精细化气温订正预报方法[J].安徽农业科学,2014,42(19):6304-6308.
[10]刘艳杰,周玉都,孙艺桃.廊坊市春季气温精细化预报订正[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(S2):282-285.
[11]薛志磊,张书余.气温预报方法研究及其应用进展综述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(3):451-458.
[2]施能.气象科研与预报中的多元分析方法[M].北京:气象出版社,1995.
[3]黄嘉佑.气象统计分析与预报方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2000.
[4]邱学兴,王东勇,朱红芳.乡镇精细化最高最低气温预报方法研究[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(3):92-96.
[5]连志鸾,李国翠,卞韬,等.基于多级相似—差额方法制作乡镇气温预报[J].气象,2008,34(5):114-117.
[6]刘抗,李照荣,杨瑞鸿,等.甘肃省乡镇精细化客观要素预报方法研究[J].干旱气象,2015,33(5):882-887.
[7]李兵,王青川,王发科,等.格尔木辖区气温精细化预报方法研究[J].青海气象,2013,2013(3):17-19.
[8]黄治勇,张文,陈璇,等.湖北省乡镇温度预报方法初探[J].气象,2011,37(12):1578-1583.
[9]吴振玲,张楠,徐姝,等.基于天津局地小气候分区的精细化气温订正预报方法[J].安徽农业科学,2014,42(19):6304-6308.
[10]刘艳杰,周玉都,孙艺桃.廊坊市春季气温精细化预报订正[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014(S2):282-285.
[11]薛志磊,张书余.气温预报方法研究及其应用进展综述[J].干旱气象,2012,30(3):451-458.