基于SPEI的滇中季节性干旱时空特征分析
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摘要
【目的】干旱缺水是制约滇中发展的重要因素之一,评价滇中干旱变化规律对制定区域抗旱对策、应对干旱缺水问题十分必要。【方法】以近40年来滇中45个气象站的月降水、气温资料作为基础数据,采用降水蒸发差值(P-PET)初步衡量滇中地区水分盈亏状况,然后以标准化降水蒸发指数(SPEI)作为干旱指标计算了滇中旱季SPEI的总体变化趋势、周期特征,分析滇中地区干旱的时空变化特征。【结果】过去40年,滇中地区冬春两季、干季水分亏缺较为严重,除春季SPEI呈微弱上升趋势外,冬季、干季均以下降趋势变化;干季周期变化为11、18、29年,春季周期变化为6、12、24年,冬季为8、12、18年。滇中各季SPEI空间上具有较好的一致性,表现为总体一致型。【结论】该研究结果可为滇中地区制定抗旱策略、科学合理配置水资源提供参考依据。
[Purposes]Drought and water shortage is one of the important factors restricting the development of Central Yunnan, therefore, it is essential to evaluate drought space and time distribution for working out the drought preparedness plans.[Methods]According to the monthly data of precipitation and temperature collected from 45 meteorological stations of Central Yunnan, preliminarily measured water profit and loss with P-PET and with SPEI as drought index, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristic based on the change of SPEI and period character.[Results]Winter, spring and dry season had a serious water deficit, dry and winter SPEI had the decreasing trend except for spring and had the periods of 11, 18, 29 years and 8, 12, 18 years; and had the periods of 6, 12, 24 years for spring. Good agreement of SPEI in space showed general uniform type.[Conclusion]The results of the study can provide a reference for the establishment of drought resistance strategy and the rational allocation of water resources.
[Purposes]Drought and water shortage is one of the important factors restricting the development of Central Yunnan, therefore, it is essential to evaluate drought space and time distribution for working out the drought preparedness plans.[Methods]According to the monthly data of precipitation and temperature collected from 45 meteorological stations of Central Yunnan, preliminarily measured water profit and loss with P-PET and with SPEI as drought index, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristic based on the change of SPEI and period character.[Results]Winter, spring and dry season had a serious water deficit, dry and winter SPEI had the decreasing trend except for spring and had the periods of 11, 18, 29 years and 8, 12, 18 years; and had the periods of 6, 12, 24 years for spring. Good agreement of SPEI in space showed general uniform type.[Conclusion]The results of the study can provide a reference for the establishment of drought resistance strategy and the rational allocation of water resources.
引文
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[2]詹存,梁川,赵璐.川中丘陵区季节性干旱时空分布特征及成因分析[J].农业工程学报,2013,29(21):82.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2013.21.011.
[3]李斌,李丽娟,李海滨,等.澜沧江流域干旱变化的时空特征[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(5):87.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2011.05.014.
[4]高瑞,王龙,杨茂灵,等.三种干旱指数在南盘江流域识别干旱能力中的应用[J].水电能源科学,2012,30(9):9.
[5]赵聚宝,徐祝龄,钟兆站,等.中国北方旱地农田水分平衡[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2000.
[6]VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGUERíA S,LóPEZ-MORENO J I.A multi-scalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index-SPEI[J].Journal of Climate,2010(23):1696.DOI:10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1.
[7]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999.
[8]PALMER W C.Meteorological drought US[R].Weather Bureau Research Paper,1965.
[9]PENMAN H L.Natural evaporation from open water,bare soil and grass[J].Proceedings of the Royal Society of London,1948,193(1032):120.DOI:10.2307/98151.
[10]ALLEN R G,PEREIRA L S,RAES D,et al.Crop evapotranspiration:guidelines for computing crop water requirements[R].Rome:FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56,1998.
[11]杨蕊,王龙,高瑞,等.基于标准化降水指数的云南冬春干旱特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(4):36.