兰渝运输通道内多种运输方式客流分担率研究
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摘要
从提高通道内整体运输效益最大化角度出发,考虑不同收入水平旅客对运输属性的主观偏好,采用修正熵权法对指标权重进行赋值,构建广义出行费用,运用改进Logit模型对兰州至重庆既有线普铁、高铁换乘、航空三种交通出行方式的客流分担率进行有效计算,并对既有线运输属性中的票价和运行速度进行单因素灵敏度分析.对运输通道内客流分担率的变化做出预测.
From the perspective of maximizing the overall transportation benefits in the corridor, considering the subjective preference of passengers with different income levels for transportation attributes, the modified entropy weight method was used to assign the index weight, and the generalized travel cost was constructed. The improved Logit model was used to calculate the passenger flow sharing rate of three modes of transportation from Lanzhou to Chongqing, i.e. ordinary rail, high-speed rail transfer and air travel. The single factor sensitivity analysis was carried out on the ticket price and operation speed in the transportation attributes of the existing lines. Finally, the change of passenger flow sharing rate in the transportation corridor was predicted.
From the perspective of maximizing the overall transportation benefits in the corridor, considering the subjective preference of passengers with different income levels for transportation attributes, the modified entropy weight method was used to assign the index weight, and the generalized travel cost was constructed. The improved Logit model was used to calculate the passenger flow sharing rate of three modes of transportation from Lanzhou to Chongqing, i.e. ordinary rail, high-speed rail transfer and air travel. The single factor sensitivity analysis was carried out on the ticket price and operation speed in the transportation attributes of the existing lines. Finally, the change of passenger flow sharing rate in the transportation corridor was predicted.
引文
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[2] 张旭,栾维新,赵冰茹.基于非集计模型的武广线高铁与民航竞争研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2012,12(6):18-21.
[3] 韩世通.大同至太原间客流分担率研究[J].铁道运输与经济,2015,37(4):18-21,50.
[4] 吴文娴.铁路通道内客流分担率及客运组织策略研究[J].中国铁道科学,2011,32(2):126-130.
[5] 王晓.运输通道内多种运输方式客运分担率研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2012,9(6):119-125.
[6] 赵野,朱志国.Logit模型的改进及其在客流预测中的应用:以铁岭市现代有轨电车为例[J].交通运输工程与信息学报,2016,14(4):93-99.
[7] 王韩麒,陈红,冯微,等.基于瓶颈模型的随机需求下出行选择行为研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(交通科学与工程版),2016,40(5):907-912.
[8] 郝丹.高速铁路和既有线客流分担率研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2012.
[9] HENSHER D A,BRADLEY M.Using stated response choice data to enrich revealed preference discrete choice models[J].Marketing Letters,1993,4(2):139-151.
[10] 中华人民共和国国家统计局.2017中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2017.
[11] 中华人民共和国国家计划委员会.国家计委关于高等级软座快速列车票价问题的复函:计价管[1997]1068号[S].北京:中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会,1997.