国土绿化PPP项目“风险源-受体-防控”体系研究
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摘要
基于风险系统理论构建研究框架,并结合管理学原理和特征映射理论对国土绿化PPP项目的风险进行研究。国土绿化PPP项目的风险源可划分为4个方面:管理主体、管理环境、管理过程和管理客体。通过对风险源作用于风险受体的侵害路径进行分析,得出已有的风险防控机制在风险预防措施和风险应对措施上存在弊端。其中规划过程的风险预防措施的不足体现为前期评估不全面,绿化方案设计中社会资本的参与度低和资格预审程序不完善;执行过程风险预防措施的不足体现为监管主体单一、绩效考核指标不合理和缺乏对人为破坏的预防措施;风险应对措施的不足体现在不能缓解风险因素对于项目本身造成的冲击。为此,提出增加自然条件评估和经济可行性评估;资格预审中增加技术审查;林业部门和社会资本平等协商确定绿化方案等优化建议。
⑴ Background——In order to make up for the deficiencies of government departments,the Forestry Regulatory Commission encourages forestry ecological construction projects to adopt the public-private partnership(PPP) model.However,PPP mode is one of the modes with complicated risk factors.Whether the risk prevention and control measures are appropriate is the prerequisite for the successful application of PPP mode.⑵ Methods——In this paper,risk system theory is used as the analysis framework to analyze the risk prevention and control mechanism of land greening PPP project.Under this framework,risk is divided into three parts:Risk source,risk receptor and risk prevention and control mechanism.Through the system and structure of management elements in management science,the main sources of risks in land greening PPP projects are identified.Finally,through the feature mapping theory,the path of risk source infringing the risk receptor is analyzed,based on which the original risk prevention and control mechanism is optimized.⑶ Results——First of all,from the four aspects of management subject,management environment,management process and management object,a total of 15 risk sources are identified.Based on the results of risk source identification,a block diagram of the risk infringement path of risk source→risk event→risk loss→risk receptor is constructed.Combined with the risk infringement path,it is found that the existing risk prevention and control system has drawbacks in risk prevention measures and risk response measures.Among them,the deficiencies of risk prevention measures in the planning stage are as follows:incomplete preliminary assessment,low participation of social capital in the design of greening schemes,overlook of the evaluation of technical level in the process of social capital selection.The deficiencies of risk prevention measures in the implementation stage are reflected in the single supervision subject,unreasonable performance evaluation and construction of indicators,and lack of preventive measures against man-made damage.The deficiencies of risk response measures are that compensation is only considered for the participants suffering losses,and the impact of risk factors on project itself cannot be alleviated.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——In the risk prevention measures at the planning stage,natural condition assessment,economic feasibility assessment and technical review for social capital are added,and the greening scheme is determined through equal consultation between the forestry department and social capital.In the risk prevention measures in the implementation phase,the public participation in the supervision work should be improved.Ecological benefit assessment should be carried out,and nearby farmers should be involved in the project.In terms of risk response measures,the compensation measures for protecting the interests of the public and private sectors should be used together with the remedial measures for the project.If the risk loss is large or the project is difficult to implement according to the original plan,we should give priority to revising the PPP contract through renegotiation.
⑴ Background——In order to make up for the deficiencies of government departments,the Forestry Regulatory Commission encourages forestry ecological construction projects to adopt the public-private partnership(PPP) model.However,PPP mode is one of the modes with complicated risk factors.Whether the risk prevention and control measures are appropriate is the prerequisite for the successful application of PPP mode.⑵ Methods——In this paper,risk system theory is used as the analysis framework to analyze the risk prevention and control mechanism of land greening PPP project.Under this framework,risk is divided into three parts:Risk source,risk receptor and risk prevention and control mechanism.Through the system and structure of management elements in management science,the main sources of risks in land greening PPP projects are identified.Finally,through the feature mapping theory,the path of risk source infringing the risk receptor is analyzed,based on which the original risk prevention and control mechanism is optimized.⑶ Results——First of all,from the four aspects of management subject,management environment,management process and management object,a total of 15 risk sources are identified.Based on the results of risk source identification,a block diagram of the risk infringement path of risk source→risk event→risk loss→risk receptor is constructed.Combined with the risk infringement path,it is found that the existing risk prevention and control system has drawbacks in risk prevention measures and risk response measures.Among them,the deficiencies of risk prevention measures in the planning stage are as follows:incomplete preliminary assessment,low participation of social capital in the design of greening schemes,overlook of the evaluation of technical level in the process of social capital selection.The deficiencies of risk prevention measures in the implementation stage are reflected in the single supervision subject,unreasonable performance evaluation and construction of indicators,and lack of preventive measures against man-made damage.The deficiencies of risk response measures are that compensation is only considered for the participants suffering losses,and the impact of risk factors on project itself cannot be alleviated.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——In the risk prevention measures at the planning stage,natural condition assessment,economic feasibility assessment and technical review for social capital are added,and the greening scheme is determined through equal consultation between the forestry department and social capital.In the risk prevention measures in the implementation phase,the public participation in the supervision work should be improved.Ecological benefit assessment should be carried out,and nearby farmers should be involved in the project.In terms of risk response measures,the compensation measures for protecting the interests of the public and private sectors should be used together with the remedial measures for the project.If the risk loss is large or the project is difficult to implement according to the original plan,we should give priority to revising the PPP contract through renegotiation.
引文
[1]周正祥,张秀芳,张平.新常态下PPP模式应用存在的问题及对策[J].中国软科学,2015(9):82-95.
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[3]李春昶,田健夫.国家储备林建设PPP模式引发的思考[J].林产工业,2016,43(10):3-6.
[4]郭伟.政府与社会资本合作模式(PPP)在国土绿化建设项目中的应用[J].林业经济,2017,39(2):71-74,96.
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[7]THOMPSON B.The political ecology of mangrove forest restoration in Thailand:Institutional arrangements and power dynamics[J].Land Use Policy,2018,78:503-514.
[8]姜喜麟,李想,李昌晓.国外典型林业PPP项目经验借鉴[J].世界林业研究,2019,32(1):11-15.
[9]张德刚,薛秋阳.林业PPP项目分类以及回报机制探索[J].林业经济,2018,40(5):91-96.
[10]姜喜麟,李昌晓.我国林业PPP的政策制度思考[J].林业经济,2018,40(10):96-99.
[11]邓小鹏,李启明,熊伟,等.城市基础设施建设PPP项目的关键风险研究[J].现代管理科学,2009(12):55-56,59.
[12]SONG J,SONG D,ZHANG X,et al.Risk identification for PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects in China[J].Energy Policy,2013,61:953-962.
[13]BAI L,LI Y,DU Q,et al.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for sustainability risk evaluation of PPP projects[J].Sustainability,2017,9(10):1-22.
[14]LIU J,WEI Q.Risk evaluation of electric vehicle charging infrastructure public-private partnership projects in China using fuzzy TOPSIS[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,189:211-222.
[15]王蕾,赵敏,彭润中.基于ANP-Shapley值的PPP模式风险分担策略研究[J].财政研究,2017(6):40-50.
[16]周小付,萨日娜.PPP的共享风险逻辑与风险治理[J].财政研究,2016(4):39-46.
[17]曲常胜,毕军,葛怡,等.基于风险系统理论的区域环境风险优化管理[J].环境科学与技术,2009,32(11):167-170.
[18]陈振,郭杰,欧名豪,等.资本下乡过程中农地流转风险识别、形成机理与管控策略[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(5):988-995.
[19]张智光.管理学原理:领域、层次与过程[M].3版.北京:清华大学出版社,2018:9-13.
[20]易欣.PPP轨道交通项目合作伙伴三阶段选择机制[J].土木工程与管理学报,2016,33(2):43-50,55.
[21]胡振宇,张水波.国际PPP项目投标决策指标体系研究[J].国际经济合作,2017(10):72-76.
[22]国家统计局.2018中国统计年鉴[EB/OL].(2018-09-01)[2019-02-22].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2018/indexch.htm.
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[24]国家林业局.2017中国林业发展报告[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2017:88.
[25]GRIMSEY D,LEWIS M K.Evaluating the risks of public private partnerships for infrastructure projects[J].International Journal of Project Management,2002,20(2):107-118.
[26]财政部PPP中心.项目库信息公开[EB/OL].(2016-02-24)[2019-02-22].http://www.cpppc.org:8086/pppcentral/map/toPPPChooseList.do.
[27]达霖·格里姆塞,莫文·K·刘易斯.PPP革命:公共服务中的政府和社会资本合作[M].济邦咨询公司,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2016:261.
[28]郭捷.特征映射模型及项目风险分析应用[J].山东建筑大学学报,2007,22(2):154-157,162.
[29]韦启忠.广西沿海防护林工程建设成效分析及对策[J].林业资源管理,2012(2):30-35.
[30]王树文.“一带一路”PPP模式中风险分析及风险规避路径选择[J].东岳论丛,2016,37(5):68-75.
[31]杜亚灵,闫鹏.PPP项目缔约风险控制框架研究:基于信任提升与维持的视角[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013,26(6):880-886.
[32]邱国栋,王易.“数据-智慧”决策模型:基于大数据的理论构建研究[J].中国软科学,2018(12):17-30.
[2]张奇.2407个PPP项目被清理出库:政府与社会资本合约处理成焦点[N].21世纪经济报道,2018-04-04(2).
[3]李春昶,田健夫.国家储备林建设PPP模式引发的思考[J].林产工业,2016,43(10):3-6.
[4]郭伟.政府与社会资本合作模式(PPP)在国土绿化建设项目中的应用[J].林业经济,2017,39(2):71-74,96.
[5]WIDMAN U.Exploring the role of public-private partnerships in forest protection[J].Sustainability,2016,8(5):1-15.
[6]BJ?RSTIG T.Does collaboration lead to sustainability?A study of public-private partnerships in the Swedish Mountains[J].Sustainability,2017,9(10):1-22.
[7]THOMPSON B.The political ecology of mangrove forest restoration in Thailand:Institutional arrangements and power dynamics[J].Land Use Policy,2018,78:503-514.
[8]姜喜麟,李想,李昌晓.国外典型林业PPP项目经验借鉴[J].世界林业研究,2019,32(1):11-15.
[9]张德刚,薛秋阳.林业PPP项目分类以及回报机制探索[J].林业经济,2018,40(5):91-96.
[10]姜喜麟,李昌晓.我国林业PPP的政策制度思考[J].林业经济,2018,40(10):96-99.
[11]邓小鹏,李启明,熊伟,等.城市基础设施建设PPP项目的关键风险研究[J].现代管理科学,2009(12):55-56,59.
[12]SONG J,SONG D,ZHANG X,et al.Risk identification for PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects in China[J].Energy Policy,2013,61:953-962.
[13]BAI L,LI Y,DU Q,et al.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model for sustainability risk evaluation of PPP projects[J].Sustainability,2017,9(10):1-22.
[14]LIU J,WEI Q.Risk evaluation of electric vehicle charging infrastructure public-private partnership projects in China using fuzzy TOPSIS[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,189:211-222.
[15]王蕾,赵敏,彭润中.基于ANP-Shapley值的PPP模式风险分担策略研究[J].财政研究,2017(6):40-50.
[16]周小付,萨日娜.PPP的共享风险逻辑与风险治理[J].财政研究,2016(4):39-46.
[17]曲常胜,毕军,葛怡,等.基于风险系统理论的区域环境风险优化管理[J].环境科学与技术,2009,32(11):167-170.
[18]陈振,郭杰,欧名豪,等.资本下乡过程中农地流转风险识别、形成机理与管控策略[J].长江流域资源与环境,2018,27(5):988-995.
[19]张智光.管理学原理:领域、层次与过程[M].3版.北京:清华大学出版社,2018:9-13.
[20]易欣.PPP轨道交通项目合作伙伴三阶段选择机制[J].土木工程与管理学报,2016,33(2):43-50,55.
[21]胡振宇,张水波.国际PPP项目投标决策指标体系研究[J].国际经济合作,2017(10):72-76.
[22]国家统计局.2018中国统计年鉴[EB/OL].(2018-09-01)[2019-02-22].http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2018/indexch.htm.
[23]国家林业和草原局.第八次全国森林资源清查主要结果(2009—2013年)[EB/OL](2014-02-25)[2019-02-22].http://www.forestry.gov.cn/portal/main/s/65/content-659670.html.
[24]国家林业局.2017中国林业发展报告[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2017:88.
[25]GRIMSEY D,LEWIS M K.Evaluating the risks of public private partnerships for infrastructure projects[J].International Journal of Project Management,2002,20(2):107-118.
[26]财政部PPP中心.项目库信息公开[EB/OL].(2016-02-24)[2019-02-22].http://www.cpppc.org:8086/pppcentral/map/toPPPChooseList.do.
[27]达霖·格里姆塞,莫文·K·刘易斯.PPP革命:公共服务中的政府和社会资本合作[M].济邦咨询公司,译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2016:261.
[28]郭捷.特征映射模型及项目风险分析应用[J].山东建筑大学学报,2007,22(2):154-157,162.
[29]韦启忠.广西沿海防护林工程建设成效分析及对策[J].林业资源管理,2012(2):30-35.
[30]王树文.“一带一路”PPP模式中风险分析及风险规避路径选择[J].东岳论丛,2016,37(5):68-75.
[31]杜亚灵,闫鹏.PPP项目缔约风险控制框架研究:基于信任提升与维持的视角[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2013,26(6):880-886.
[32]邱国栋,王易.“数据-智慧”决策模型:基于大数据的理论构建研究[J].中国软科学,2018(12):17-30.