社会资本提升了中青年农民的持续参保意愿吗?
|
摘要
中青年农民对城乡居民养老保险制度的持续参保意愿决定着制度未来的养老保障能力和制度的可持续发展。本文构建了社会资本通过制度满意度和特殊信任影响中青年农民对城乡居保制度持续参保意愿的多重中介模型。基于2015年全国5省678份中青年农民问卷调查,运用结构方程模型研究发现,社会资本对中青年农民持续参保意愿的直接影响不显著;社会资本通过制度满意度和特殊信任对持续参保意愿有间接影响。基于Bootstrap再抽样技术进行中介效应分析发现,在制度满意度、特殊信任及二者共同的中介效应中,制度满意度的中介效应与二者共同的中介效应大小具有显著性差异,制度满意度与特殊信任、特殊信任与共同的中介效应大小没有显著性差异。本文为政府采取措施提升中青年农民持续参保意愿提供了一个新的政策视角。
Young and middle-aged farmers' persistent willingness to participate in old-aged insurance system for urban and rural residents determines future endowment security capacity and sustainable development of the system. The multiple mediating models of social capital affecting young and middle-aged farmers' persistent willingness to participate through system satisfaction and specail trust were constructed. Based on the data of678 young and middle-aged respondents in 5 provinces in 2015,the model hypothesis test by using structural equation modeling found that social capital has no direct impact on young and middle-aged farmers' persistent willingness to participate and have indirect impact through system satisfaction and special trust. The mediation effect analysis by using bootstrap sampling technology found that the mediation effect of system satisfaction and the commen have significant difference,while,there is no difference between system satisfaction and special trust,special trust and the commen among the mediation effect of system satisfaction,special trust and the commen. This paper provides a new policy reference for the government to take measures to improve young and middle-aged farmers' persistent willingness to participate.
Young and middle-aged farmers' persistent willingness to participate in old-aged insurance system for urban and rural residents determines future endowment security capacity and sustainable development of the system. The multiple mediating models of social capital affecting young and middle-aged farmers' persistent willingness to participate through system satisfaction and specail trust were constructed. Based on the data of678 young and middle-aged respondents in 5 provinces in 2015,the model hypothesis test by using structural equation modeling found that social capital has no direct impact on young and middle-aged farmers' persistent willingness to participate and have indirect impact through system satisfaction and special trust. The mediation effect analysis by using bootstrap sampling technology found that the mediation effect of system satisfaction and the commen have significant difference,while,there is no difference between system satisfaction and special trust,special trust and the commen among the mediation effect of system satisfaction,special trust and the commen. This paper provides a new policy reference for the government to take measures to improve young and middle-aged farmers' persistent willingness to participate.
引文
[1]郑功成.中国新型社保制度建设的重要里程碑——论城乡居民养老保险制度的建立与发展[J].中国社会保障,2016(3):30-33.
[2]程令国,张晔,刘志彪.“新农保”改变了中国农村居民的养老模式吗?[J].经济研究,2013,48(8):42-54.
[3]陈华帅,曾毅.“新农保”使谁受益:老人还是子女?[J].经济研究,2013,48(8):55-67,160.
[4]张晔,程令国,刘志彪.“新农保”对农村居民养老质量的影响研究[J].经济学(季刊),2016,15(2):817-844.
[5]贾宁,袁建华.基于精算模型的“新农保”个人账户替代率研究[J].中国人口科学,2010(3):95-102,112.
[6]林义.破解新农保制度运行五大难[J].中国社会保障,2009(9):14-16.
[7]邓大松,薛惠元.新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算模型及其实证分析[J].经济管理,2010,32(5):164-171.
[8]丁煜.新农保个人账户设计的改进:基于精算模型的分析[J].社会保障研究,2011(5):31-39.
[9]黄瑞芹.农户社会养老保险的需求行为与潜在需求差异分析[J].世界经济文汇,2013(6)101-109.
[10]姚俊.理性选择、外部激励与新农保连续性参保——基于四省的调查[J].中国人口科学,2015(4):111-102,128.
[11]张思锋,胡晗,唐敏.“新农保”的制度自信与制度发展[J].西安交通大学学报:社会科学版,2016,36(5):37-44.
[12]吴玉锋,周明.农民对新型农村社会养老保险忠诚度影响因素实证研究[J].西北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2014,44(4):84-90.
[13]吴玉锋.农村居民养老保险满意度和忠诚度实证研究——基于信任的视角[J].中国经济问题,2015(5):16-26.
[14]吴玉锋,周嘉星,伍勇.期望确认度与城乡居民养老保险制度忠诚度关系实证研究[J].西北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2018,48(6):83-91.
[15]胡田,郭英之.旅游消费者在线购买旅游产品的信任度、满意度及忠诚度研究[J].旅游科学,2014,28(6):40-50.
[16]CRONIN J J,BRADY M K,HULT G T M. Assessing the effects of quality,value and customer satisfaction on consumer behavioral intentions in service environments[J]. Journal of Retailing,2000,76(2):193-218.
[17]邓爱民,陶宝,马莹莹.网络购物顾客忠诚度影响因素的实证研究[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(6):94-102.
[18]GUISO L,SAPIENZA P,ZINGALEA L. The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development[J]. American Economic Rewiew,2004,94(3):526-556.
[19]GUISO L,SAPIENZA P,ZINGALEA L. Trusting the Stock Market[J]. The Journal of Finance,2008,63(6):2557-2600.
[20]徐淑芳.社会资本与金融发展[J].改革与战略,2008(8):52-56.
[21]卢燕平.社会资本与金融发展的实证研究[J].统计研究,2005(8):30-34.
[22]张俊生,曾亚敏.社会资本与区域金融发展——基于中国省际数据的实证研究[J].财经研究,2005(4):37-45.
[23]杨小玲.社会资本视角下的中国金融发展与经济增长关系——基于1997—2008年省际面板数据研究[J].产经评论,2010(2):97-104.
[24]皮天雷.社会资本、法治水平对金融发展的影响分析[J].财经科学,2010(1):1-8.
[25]崔巍.我国区域金融发展的差异性研究——基于社会资本的视角[J].经济学动态,2013(3):89-94.
[26]李越,崔红志.“新农保”参保决策制约因素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(2):224-232.
[27]PUTNAM R D. Making Democracy Work[M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,1993.
[28]AKERLOF G A. A Theory of Social Custom,of Which Unemployment May Be One Consequence[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1978,94(4):749-775.
[29]BECKER G S. A Note on Restaurant Pricing and Other Examples of Social influenceson Price,Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(5):1109-1116.
[30]GUISO L,SAPIENZA P,ZINGALEA L. Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes?[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2006,20(2):23-48.
[31]李涛.社会互动、信任与股市参与[J].经济研究,2006(1):34-45.
[32]陈硕.民间金融发展中的社会资本作用机制及其效应研究[J].云南财经大学学报,2014,30(6):102-109.
[33]HARRIS L C,GOODE M M. The four levels of loyalty and the pivotal role of trust:A study of online service dynamics[J].Journal of Retailing,2004,80(2):139-158.
[34]LOCHNER K,KAWACH I I,KENNEDY B P. Social capital:a guide to its measurement[J]. Health&Place,2000,5(4):259-270.
[35]PONTHIEUX S. The Concept of Social capital:A Critical Review[J]. In world,2004:1-23.
[36]FUKUYAMA F. Social capital,civil society and development[J]. the third world quarterly,2001,22(1):7-20.
[37]温忠麟.张雷,侯杰泰,等.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报,2004(5):614-620.
[38]方杰,温忠麟,张敏强,等.基于结构方程模型的多重中介效应分析[J].心理科学,2014,37(3):735-741.
[2]程令国,张晔,刘志彪.“新农保”改变了中国农村居民的养老模式吗?[J].经济研究,2013,48(8):42-54.
[3]陈华帅,曾毅.“新农保”使谁受益:老人还是子女?[J].经济研究,2013,48(8):55-67,160.
[4]张晔,程令国,刘志彪.“新农保”对农村居民养老质量的影响研究[J].经济学(季刊),2016,15(2):817-844.
[5]贾宁,袁建华.基于精算模型的“新农保”个人账户替代率研究[J].中国人口科学,2010(3):95-102,112.
[6]林义.破解新农保制度运行五大难[J].中国社会保障,2009(9):14-16.
[7]邓大松,薛惠元.新型农村社会养老保险替代率精算模型及其实证分析[J].经济管理,2010,32(5):164-171.
[8]丁煜.新农保个人账户设计的改进:基于精算模型的分析[J].社会保障研究,2011(5):31-39.
[9]黄瑞芹.农户社会养老保险的需求行为与潜在需求差异分析[J].世界经济文汇,2013(6)101-109.
[10]姚俊.理性选择、外部激励与新农保连续性参保——基于四省的调查[J].中国人口科学,2015(4):111-102,128.
[11]张思锋,胡晗,唐敏.“新农保”的制度自信与制度发展[J].西安交通大学学报:社会科学版,2016,36(5):37-44.
[12]吴玉锋,周明.农民对新型农村社会养老保险忠诚度影响因素实证研究[J].西北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2014,44(4):84-90.
[13]吴玉锋.农村居民养老保险满意度和忠诚度实证研究——基于信任的视角[J].中国经济问题,2015(5):16-26.
[14]吴玉锋,周嘉星,伍勇.期望确认度与城乡居民养老保险制度忠诚度关系实证研究[J].西北大学学报:哲学社会科学版,2018,48(6):83-91.
[15]胡田,郭英之.旅游消费者在线购买旅游产品的信任度、满意度及忠诚度研究[J].旅游科学,2014,28(6):40-50.
[16]CRONIN J J,BRADY M K,HULT G T M. Assessing the effects of quality,value and customer satisfaction on consumer behavioral intentions in service environments[J]. Journal of Retailing,2000,76(2):193-218.
[17]邓爱民,陶宝,马莹莹.网络购物顾客忠诚度影响因素的实证研究[J].中国管理科学,2014,22(6):94-102.
[18]GUISO L,SAPIENZA P,ZINGALEA L. The Role of Social Capital in Financial Development[J]. American Economic Rewiew,2004,94(3):526-556.
[19]GUISO L,SAPIENZA P,ZINGALEA L. Trusting the Stock Market[J]. The Journal of Finance,2008,63(6):2557-2600.
[20]徐淑芳.社会资本与金融发展[J].改革与战略,2008(8):52-56.
[21]卢燕平.社会资本与金融发展的实证研究[J].统计研究,2005(8):30-34.
[22]张俊生,曾亚敏.社会资本与区域金融发展——基于中国省际数据的实证研究[J].财经研究,2005(4):37-45.
[23]杨小玲.社会资本视角下的中国金融发展与经济增长关系——基于1997—2008年省际面板数据研究[J].产经评论,2010(2):97-104.
[24]皮天雷.社会资本、法治水平对金融发展的影响分析[J].财经科学,2010(1):1-8.
[25]崔巍.我国区域金融发展的差异性研究——基于社会资本的视角[J].经济学动态,2013(3):89-94.
[26]李越,崔红志.“新农保”参保决策制约因素分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2014,19(2):224-232.
[27]PUTNAM R D. Making Democracy Work[M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press,1993.
[28]AKERLOF G A. A Theory of Social Custom,of Which Unemployment May Be One Consequence[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1978,94(4):749-775.
[29]BECKER G S. A Note on Restaurant Pricing and Other Examples of Social influenceson Price,Journal of Political Economy,1991,99(5):1109-1116.
[30]GUISO L,SAPIENZA P,ZINGALEA L. Does Culture Affect Economic Outcomes?[J]. Journal of Economic Perspectives,2006,20(2):23-48.
[31]李涛.社会互动、信任与股市参与[J].经济研究,2006(1):34-45.
[32]陈硕.民间金融发展中的社会资本作用机制及其效应研究[J].云南财经大学学报,2014,30(6):102-109.
[33]HARRIS L C,GOODE M M. The four levels of loyalty and the pivotal role of trust:A study of online service dynamics[J].Journal of Retailing,2004,80(2):139-158.
[34]LOCHNER K,KAWACH I I,KENNEDY B P. Social capital:a guide to its measurement[J]. Health&Place,2000,5(4):259-270.
[35]PONTHIEUX S. The Concept of Social capital:A Critical Review[J]. In world,2004:1-23.
[36]FUKUYAMA F. Social capital,civil society and development[J]. the third world quarterly,2001,22(1):7-20.
[37]温忠麟.张雷,侯杰泰,等.中介效应检验程序及其应用[J].心理学报,2004(5):614-620.
[38]方杰,温忠麟,张敏强,等.基于结构方程模型的多重中介效应分析[J].心理科学,2014,37(3):735-741.