H7N9禽流感发病率主要影响因素的探究
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摘要
针对甲型H7N9禽流感发病率的主要影响因素,从时空、环境和易感人群的性别年龄特征三个方面进行分析,得出其高发期为冬春两季、爆发中心为沿海地区、主要易感人群为中老年男性群体的结论.其次,根据历史统计数据建立时间序列模型,对2017年10月至2018年9月每周全国发病人数进行合理预测.最后,通过分析2014-2017年H7N9禽流感治愈率的变化情况,给出关于治疗H7N9禽流感的可行性方案及相关防治建议.
This paper focuses on the major factors which influence on the incidence of H7 N9 Subtype Avian Influenza Virus, such as spatial-temporal effects, environment factors and the age and gender characteristics of susceptible population. In combination of weekly reported cases and stochastic analyses, some interesting results related to H7 N9 control have been proposed. In particular, the main results indicate that the reported cases and outbreak of H7 N9 are seasonal, i.e. winter and spring are most serious seasons. Moreover, the center of the outbreak regions is coastal areas, and the main susceptible population is middle and old aged groups. Further, by building a time series model the number of weekly reported cases and death cases in China can be predicted from October 2017 to September 2018 based on historical statistic data. Finally, we discuss some possible treatments and control strategies with aims to mitigating H7 N9 outbreak in the near future by analyzing its cure rate ranged from 2014 to 2017.
This paper focuses on the major factors which influence on the incidence of H7 N9 Subtype Avian Influenza Virus, such as spatial-temporal effects, environment factors and the age and gender characteristics of susceptible population. In combination of weekly reported cases and stochastic analyses, some interesting results related to H7 N9 control have been proposed. In particular, the main results indicate that the reported cases and outbreak of H7 N9 are seasonal, i.e. winter and spring are most serious seasons. Moreover, the center of the outbreak regions is coastal areas, and the main susceptible population is middle and old aged groups. Further, by building a time series model the number of weekly reported cases and death cases in China can be predicted from October 2017 to September 2018 based on historical statistic data. Finally, we discuss some possible treatments and control strategies with aims to mitigating H7 N9 outbreak in the near future by analyzing its cure rate ranged from 2014 to 2017.
引文
[1]祝丙华,王立贵,孙岩松,等.基于大数据传染病监测预警研究进展[J].中国公共卫生,2016,32(9):1276-1279.
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[13]闫铁成,肖丹,王波,等.中国大陆130例人感染H7N9禽流感病例流行病学特征分析[J].中国疾病控制杂志,2013,17(8):651-654.
[14]李鹏媛,徐浩,顾豪高,等.中国大陆H7N9禽流感病毒流行病学特征及血凝素和神经氨酸酶的分子进化[J].中山大学学报,2014,35(6):932-940.
[15]Cowling BJ,Freeman G,Wong JY,et al.Preliminary inferences on the age-specific seriousness of human disease caused by avian influenza A(H7N9)infections in China,March to April 2013[J].Euro Surveill,2013,18(19):20475.
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[17]Zhuang QY,Wang SC,Wu ML,et al.Epidemiological and risk analysisof the H7N9 subtype influenza outbreak in China at its early stage[J].Chin Sci Bull,2013,58(26):3183-3187.
[18]Skowronski DM,Jangua NZ,Kwindt TL,et al.Virus-host interactions and the unusual age and sex distribution of human cases of influenza A(H7N9)in China,April 2013[J].Euro Surveill,2013,18(17):20465.
[19]Arima Y,Vong S;World Health Organization Outbreak Response Team,Human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in China:preliminary assessments of the age and sex distribution[J],Western Pac Surveill Response J,2013,4(2):1-3.
[20]姜慧芬,包叶江,徐笑红,等.2013年中国人感染H7N9禽流感疫情分析[J].中华全科医学,2015,13(4):650-652.
[21]李燕婷,张宏伟,任宏,等.上海市流感病例发病趋势的时间序列分析和预测模型研究[J].中华防御医学杂志,2007,41(6):496-498.
[22]王振龙,胡永宏.应用时间序列分析[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.
[23]王怡,张震,范俊杰,等.ARIMA模型在传染病预测中的应用[J].中国预防医学杂志,2015,16(6):424-428.
[2]章灿明,洪荣涛,欧剑鸣,等.福建省人感染H7N9禽流感疫情快速凡险评估[J].预防医学论坛,2015,21(5):321-323.
[3]李妍,李印,宇传华,等.我国H7N9流感易感人群浅析[J].中国动物检疫,2015,32(11):14-15.
[4]李志华.流行病学第2版[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.
[5]方晓虹.1例H7N9型禽流感致急重症病毒性肺炎病人体外膜肺氧合成功撤机后的护理[J].全科护理,2013,11(28):2686-2687.
[6]张萍,田博,赵晓光,等.2013-2014年全国甲型H7N9流感传播的时空模式研究[J].中国预防医学杂志,2017,11(18):851-856.
[7]董雯,杨昆,许泉立.2013-2014年我国人感染H7N9禽流感时空分布及相关环境因素[J].环境与健康杂志,2016,10(33):903-904.
[8]陈纯,陆剑云,李魁彪,等.气象因素对活禽市场外环境H7N9禽流感病毒影响作用分析[J].首都公共卫生,2017,11(2):56-57.
[9]李中华,刘华雷,张海明,等.东部沿海某县活禽市场禽流感感染状况调查[J].中国动物检疫,2017,34(1):19-22.
[10]张人杰,李娜,王臻,等.浙江省2013-2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例空间自相关分析[J].中国公共卫生,2017,33(1):70-73.
[11]Wei WWS.Time Series Analysis:Univariate and Multivariate Methods,2nd edition,2006[M].New York:Pearson Education Inc,2006.
[12]陈茂余,杨服芳,梁均和,等.广东省江门市H7N9禽流感外环境监测及人感染H7N9禽流感流行趋势研究[J].疾控监测,2016,31(10):847-850.
[13]闫铁成,肖丹,王波,等.中国大陆130例人感染H7N9禽流感病例流行病学特征分析[J].中国疾病控制杂志,2013,17(8):651-654.
[14]李鹏媛,徐浩,顾豪高,等.中国大陆H7N9禽流感病毒流行病学特征及血凝素和神经氨酸酶的分子进化[J].中山大学学报,2014,35(6):932-940.
[15]Cowling BJ,Freeman G,Wong JY,et al.Preliminary inferences on the age-specific seriousness of human disease caused by avian influenza A(H7N9)infections in China,March to April 2013[J].Euro Surveill,2013,18(19):20475.
[16]Liu D,Shi W,Shi Y,et al.Origin and diversity of novel avian influenza A H7N9 viruses causing human infection:phylogenetic,structural,and coalescent analyses[J].Lancet,2013,381(9881):1926-1932.
[17]Zhuang QY,Wang SC,Wu ML,et al.Epidemiological and risk analysisof the H7N9 subtype influenza outbreak in China at its early stage[J].Chin Sci Bull,2013,58(26):3183-3187.
[18]Skowronski DM,Jangua NZ,Kwindt TL,et al.Virus-host interactions and the unusual age and sex distribution of human cases of influenza A(H7N9)in China,April 2013[J].Euro Surveill,2013,18(17):20465.
[19]Arima Y,Vong S;World Health Organization Outbreak Response Team,Human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9)virus in China:preliminary assessments of the age and sex distribution[J],Western Pac Surveill Response J,2013,4(2):1-3.
[20]姜慧芬,包叶江,徐笑红,等.2013年中国人感染H7N9禽流感疫情分析[J].中华全科医学,2015,13(4):650-652.
[21]李燕婷,张宏伟,任宏,等.上海市流感病例发病趋势的时间序列分析和预测模型研究[J].中华防御医学杂志,2007,41(6):496-498.
[22]王振龙,胡永宏.应用时间序列分析[M].北京:科学出版社,2012.
[23]王怡,张震,范俊杰,等.ARIMA模型在传染病预测中的应用[J].中国预防医学杂志,2015,16(6):424-428.