霾天气影响下的京津冀气候变化特征与成因
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摘要
利用1961～2016年京津冀90个国家级气象站的霾数据集、日平均相对湿度、14:00能见度、日平均气温、日累计降水、日平均风速、辐射等数据,采用MASH方法、线性趋势分析方法、曼-肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)法以及相关分析等方法研究了京津冀地区霾天气影响下的气候变化特征.结果表明:京津冀地区年平均霾日数呈明显的增长趋势,增长率为5d/10a以上,大中城市年平均霾日数明显高于其他地区,霾日数突变增多发生在1992～1993年,在国家大气污染防治专项资金注入以后年平均霾日数增长趋势减缓;京津冀地区霾日和非霾日年平均气温呈上升趋势,年平均能见度呈下降趋势;年平均降水日数总体趋势减少,但是霾日降水日数逐年增加,而非霾日呈现减少趋势,两者呈现对称相反关系;京津冀霾日和非霾日年平均风速均呈逐年下降趋势;霾日数具有随着GDP、能源消耗的增加逐年递增趋势.京津冀地区霾日和非霾日年平均总辐射和散射辐射都是逐年下降,霾日比非霾日下降趋势更加明显,年平均总辐射比散射辐射下降明显;年平均霾日数与年平均总辐射、年平均风速、年平均降水呈负相关,但是与年平均气温、GDP、能源消耗呈正相关.
Based on the daily datasets ofhaze, relative humidity, visibility at 14:00, air temperature, wind speed and radiation from 90 national meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region(BTH) during 1961～2016, the climate change in BTH on haze days was analyzed by using the methods of MASH, linear regression, correlation analysis and Mann-Kendall. The results suggested that: the annual mean haze days in BTH showed an obvious enhanced trend, the increase was above 5 d/10 a, and the haze days in the middle and large cities were obviously higher compared to other areas. The sharp increase of haze days began in 1991～1992. The annual mean haze trend was slowed down under the initiation of special funds for the air pollution prevention and control. The daily mean temperature of haze and non-haze days showed an upward trend in BTH, whereas annual visibility decreased. The overall trend of annual precipitation decreased in BTH. The annual precipitation days of haze daily increased, while it showed a decreasing trend in non-haze days. The annual mean wind of haze and non-haze days in BTH decreased. The haze day increased with the enhanced GDP and energy consumption. The annual mean total radiation and scattering radiation of haze and non-haze days had been decliningin BTH. The declined trend of haze days is more obvious in contrast with non-haze days, and the annual mean total radiation is decreased remarkable than the scattering radiation. The annual mean haze days were negatively correlated with annual mean values of radiation, wind speed and precipitation, but positively correlated with annual mean variables of temperature, GDP and energy consumption.
Based on the daily datasets ofhaze, relative humidity, visibility at 14:00, air temperature, wind speed and radiation from 90 national meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region(BTH) during 1961～2016, the climate change in BTH on haze days was analyzed by using the methods of MASH, linear regression, correlation analysis and Mann-Kendall. The results suggested that: the annual mean haze days in BTH showed an obvious enhanced trend, the increase was above 5 d/10 a, and the haze days in the middle and large cities were obviously higher compared to other areas. The sharp increase of haze days began in 1991～1992. The annual mean haze trend was slowed down under the initiation of special funds for the air pollution prevention and control. The daily mean temperature of haze and non-haze days showed an upward trend in BTH, whereas annual visibility decreased. The overall trend of annual precipitation decreased in BTH. The annual precipitation days of haze daily increased, while it showed a decreasing trend in non-haze days. The annual mean wind of haze and non-haze days in BTH decreased. The haze day increased with the enhanced GDP and energy consumption. The annual mean total radiation and scattering radiation of haze and non-haze days had been decliningin BTH. The declined trend of haze days is more obvious in contrast with non-haze days, and the annual mean total radiation is decreased remarkable than the scattering radiation. The annual mean haze days were negatively correlated with annual mean values of radiation, wind speed and precipitation, but positively correlated with annual mean variables of temperature, GDP and energy consumption.
引文
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[7]吴兑,吴晓京,李菲,等.1951~2005年中国大陆霾的时空变化[J].气象学报,2010,68(5):680-688.Wu Dui,Wu Xiao-jing,Li Fei,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of have during 1951~2005 in Cinesemainland[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2010,68(5):680-688.
[8]符传博,丹利.重污染下我国中东部地区1960~2010年霾日数的时空变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(2):219-226.Fu Chuanbo,Dan Li.Spatiotemporal characteristics of haze days under heavy pollution over central and eastern China during 1960~2010[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),2014,19(2):219-226.
[9]高歌.1961~2005年中国霾日气候特征及变化分析[J].地理学报,2008,63(7):761-768.Gao Ge.The Climatic Char acteristics and Change of Haze Days over China during 1961~2005[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(7):761-768.
[10]白志鹏,蔡斌彬,董海燕,等.灰霾的健康效应[J].环境污染与防治,2006,28(3):198-201.Bai Zhi-peng,Cai Bin-bin,Dong Hai-yan,et al.Adverse health effects caused by dust haze[J].Environmental Pullution&Control,2006,28(3):198-201.
[11]楚建军,陈平,李虎,等.大气污染与肺癌关系的回归分析[J].环境与健康杂志,1993,10(5):201-204.Chu Jianjun,Chen Ping,Li hu,et al.The analysis of ridge regression about air pollution factors of the lung cancer[J].Journal of Environment and Health,1993,10(5):201-204.
[12]Simkhovich B Z,Kleinman M T,Kloner R A.Air pollution and cardiovascular injury epidemiology,toxicology,and mechanisms[J].JAm Coil Cardiol,2008,52:719-726.
[13]Xuexi Tie,Dui Wu,Guy Brasseur.Lung cancer mortality and exposure to atmospheric aerosol particles in Guangzhou,China,Atmospheric Environment,2009,43(14):2375-2377.
[14]鲁晓春,李小鹰.空气污染与心血管疾病[J].中华老年医学杂志,2015,34(6):583-586.Lu Xiao-chun,Li Xiao-ying.Air pollution and cardiovascular disease[J].Chinese Journal of Geriatrics,2015,34(6):583-586.
[15]《京津冀协同发展规划纲要》[N].中共中央政治局,北京:2015.Outline of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Cooperative Development Plan[N].Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee,Beijing:2015.
[16]秦世广,石广玉,陈林,等.利用地面水平能见度估算并分析中国地区气溶胶光学厚度长期变化特征[J].大气科学,2010,34(2):449-456.Qin Shiguang,Shi Guangyu,Chen Lin,et al.Long term variation of aerosol optical depth in China based on met eorological horizontal visibility observations[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric S ciences(in Chinese),2010,34(2):449-456.
[17]吴兑,陈慧忠,吴蒙,等.三种霾日统计方法的比较分析--以环首都圈京津冀晋为例[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(3):545-554.Wu Dui,Chen Hui-zhang,Wu Meng,et al.Comparion of three statistical methods on calculating haze days-taking areas around the capital for example,China Environmental science,2014,34(3):545-554.
[18]Ding Y H,Liu Y J.Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2013,57(1):36-46.
[19]Szentimrey T.Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization(MASH).Proceedings of the Second Seminar for Homogenization of Surface Climatological Data.Budapest,Hungary,WMO,WCDMP-No.1999,41:27e Cl.
[20]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[21]缪育聪,郑亦佳,王姝,等.京津冀地区霾成因机制研究进展与展望[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(3):356-368.Miao Yu-cong,Zheng Yi-jia,Wang Shu,et a1.Recent advances in,and future prospects of,research on haze formation over BeijingTianjin-Hebei,China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),2015,20(3):356-368.
[22]符传博,丹利,唐家翔,等.1960~2013年华南地区霾污染的时空变化及其与关键气候因子的关系[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(5):1313-1322.Fu Chuan-bo,Dan Li,Tang Jia-xiang,et al.Temporal and spatial characteristics of haze days and their relations with climatic factor during 1960~2013 over South China[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(5):1313-1322.
[23]赵普生,徐晓峰,孟伟,等.京津冀区域霾天气特征[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(1):31-36.Zhao Pusheng,Xu Xiaofeng,Meng Wei,et al.Characteristics of hazy days in the region of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei[J].China Environmental Science,2012,32(1):31-36.
[24]吴兑.灰霾天气的形成与演化[J].环境科学与技术,2011,34(3):157-161.Wu Dui.Formation and evolution of haze weather[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2011,34(3):157-161.
[25]吴兑,廖碧婷,吴蒙,等.环首都圈霾和雾的长期变化特征与典型个例的近地层输送条件[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(1):1-11.Wu Dui,Liao Bi-ting,Wu Meng,et al.The long-term trend of haze and fog days and the surface layer transport conditions under haze weather in North China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2014,34(1):1-11.
[26]张永欣,宋明,杨艳娟.1956~2011年华北地区气温和降水变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(2):726-728.Zhang Yong-xin,Song Ming,Yang Yan-jun.The Change Characteristic of Temperature and Precipitation in the North China during 1956 and 2011[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2013,41(2):726-728.
[27]Oke T R.The energetic basis of the urban heat island.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1982,108(455):1-24.
[28]周雅清,任国玉.华北地区地表气温观测中城镇化影响的检测和订正[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):743-753.Zhou Ya-qing,Ren Guo-yu.Identifying and Correcting Urban Bias for Regional Surface Air Temperature Series of North China over Period of 1961~2000[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(4):743-753.
[29]王君,严中伟,李珍,等.近30年城市化对北京极端温度的影响[J].科学通报,2013,58(33):3464-3470.Wang J,Yan Z W,Li Z,et al.Impact of urbanization on changes in temperature extremes in Beijing during 1978~2008[J].Chinese Sci.Bull.,2013,58:4679-4686.
[30]严中伟,王君,李珍,等.基于均一化观测序列评估城市化的气候效应[J].气象科技进展,2014,4(3):41-48.Yan Zhong-wei,Wang Jun,Li Zhen,et al.Assessing Climatic Effects of Urbanization Based on Homogenized Daily Observations[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2014,4(3):41-48
[2]付桂琴,赵春生,张杏敏,等.1961~2010年河北省地面风变化特征及成因探讨[J].干旱气象,2015,33(5):815-821.Fu Guiqin,Zhao Chunsheng,Zhang Xingmin,et al.Change characteristic and its forming cause of wind speed in Hebei Province during 1961~2010[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology(in Chinese),201533(5):815-821.
[3]李春,刘德义,黄鹤.1958~2007年天津降水量和降水日数变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2010,26(4):8-11.Li Chun,Liu Deyi,Huang He.Characteristics of precipitation and precipitation days from 1958 to 2007 in Tianjin[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),2010,26(4):8-11.
[4]Li Z,Yan Z W.Application of multiple analysis of series for homogenization to Beijing daily temperature series(1960~2006)[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2010,27(4):777-787.
[5]Li Z,Yan Z W,Tu K,et al.Changes in wind speed and extremes in Beijing during 1960~2008 based on homogenized observations[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2011,28(2):408-420.
[6]Li Z,Yan Z W,Tu K,et al.2015.Changes of precipitation and extremes and the possible effect of urbanization in the Beijing metropolitan region during 1960~2012 based on homogenized observations[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,32(9):1173-1185.
[7]吴兑,吴晓京,李菲,等.1951~2005年中国大陆霾的时空变化[J].气象学报,2010,68(5):680-688.Wu Dui,Wu Xiao-jing,Li Fei,et al.Temporal and spatial variation of have during 1951~2005 in Cinesemainland[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2010,68(5):680-688.
[8]符传博,丹利.重污染下我国中东部地区1960~2010年霾日数的时空变化特征[J].气候与环境研究,2014,19(2):219-226.Fu Chuanbo,Dan Li.Spatiotemporal characteristics of haze days under heavy pollution over central and eastern China during 1960~2010[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),2014,19(2):219-226.
[9]高歌.1961~2005年中国霾日气候特征及变化分析[J].地理学报,2008,63(7):761-768.Gao Ge.The Climatic Char acteristics and Change of Haze Days over China during 1961~2005[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2008,63(7):761-768.
[10]白志鹏,蔡斌彬,董海燕,等.灰霾的健康效应[J].环境污染与防治,2006,28(3):198-201.Bai Zhi-peng,Cai Bin-bin,Dong Hai-yan,et al.Adverse health effects caused by dust haze[J].Environmental Pullution&Control,2006,28(3):198-201.
[11]楚建军,陈平,李虎,等.大气污染与肺癌关系的回归分析[J].环境与健康杂志,1993,10(5):201-204.Chu Jianjun,Chen Ping,Li hu,et al.The analysis of ridge regression about air pollution factors of the lung cancer[J].Journal of Environment and Health,1993,10(5):201-204.
[12]Simkhovich B Z,Kleinman M T,Kloner R A.Air pollution and cardiovascular injury epidemiology,toxicology,and mechanisms[J].JAm Coil Cardiol,2008,52:719-726.
[13]Xuexi Tie,Dui Wu,Guy Brasseur.Lung cancer mortality and exposure to atmospheric aerosol particles in Guangzhou,China,Atmospheric Environment,2009,43(14):2375-2377.
[14]鲁晓春,李小鹰.空气污染与心血管疾病[J].中华老年医学杂志,2015,34(6):583-586.Lu Xiao-chun,Li Xiao-ying.Air pollution and cardiovascular disease[J].Chinese Journal of Geriatrics,2015,34(6):583-586.
[15]《京津冀协同发展规划纲要》[N].中共中央政治局,北京:2015.Outline of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Cooperative Development Plan[N].Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee,Beijing:2015.
[16]秦世广,石广玉,陈林,等.利用地面水平能见度估算并分析中国地区气溶胶光学厚度长期变化特征[J].大气科学,2010,34(2):449-456.Qin Shiguang,Shi Guangyu,Chen Lin,et al.Long term variation of aerosol optical depth in China based on met eorological horizontal visibility observations[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric S ciences(in Chinese),2010,34(2):449-456.
[17]吴兑,陈慧忠,吴蒙,等.三种霾日统计方法的比较分析--以环首都圈京津冀晋为例[J].中国环境科学,2014,34(3):545-554.Wu Dui,Chen Hui-zhang,Wu Meng,et al.Comparion of three statistical methods on calculating haze days-taking areas around the capital for example,China Environmental science,2014,34(3):545-554.
[18]Ding Y H,Liu Y J.Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2013,57(1):36-46.
[19]Szentimrey T.Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization(MASH).Proceedings of the Second Seminar for Homogenization of Surface Climatological Data.Budapest,Hungary,WMO,WCDMP-No.1999,41:27e Cl.
[20]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[21]缪育聪,郑亦佳,王姝,等.京津冀地区霾成因机制研究进展与展望[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(3):356-368.Miao Yu-cong,Zheng Yi-jia,Wang Shu,et a1.Recent advances in,and future prospects of,research on haze formation over BeijingTianjin-Hebei,China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),2015,20(3):356-368.
[22]符传博,丹利,唐家翔,等.1960~2013年华南地区霾污染的时空变化及其与关键气候因子的关系[J].中国环境科学,2016,36(5):1313-1322.Fu Chuan-bo,Dan Li,Tang Jia-xiang,et al.Temporal and spatial characteristics of haze days and their relations with climatic factor during 1960~2013 over South China[J].China Environmental Science,2016,36(5):1313-1322.
[23]赵普生,徐晓峰,孟伟,等.京津冀区域霾天气特征[J].中国环境科学,2012,32(1):31-36.Zhao Pusheng,Xu Xiaofeng,Meng Wei,et al.Characteristics of hazy days in the region of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei[J].China Environmental Science,2012,32(1):31-36.
[24]吴兑.灰霾天气的形成与演化[J].环境科学与技术,2011,34(3):157-161.Wu Dui.Formation and evolution of haze weather[J].Environmental Science&Technology,2011,34(3):157-161.
[25]吴兑,廖碧婷,吴蒙,等.环首都圈霾和雾的长期变化特征与典型个例的近地层输送条件[J].环境科学学报,2014,34(1):1-11.Wu Dui,Liao Bi-ting,Wu Meng,et al.The long-term trend of haze and fog days and the surface layer transport conditions under haze weather in North China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2014,34(1):1-11.
[26]张永欣,宋明,杨艳娟.1956~2011年华北地区气温和降水变化特征[J].安徽农业科学,2013,41(2):726-728.Zhang Yong-xin,Song Ming,Yang Yan-jun.The Change Characteristic of Temperature and Precipitation in the North China during 1956 and 2011[J].Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2013,41(2):726-728.
[27]Oke T R.The energetic basis of the urban heat island.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society,1982,108(455):1-24.
[28]周雅清,任国玉.华北地区地表气温观测中城镇化影响的检测和订正[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):743-753.Zhou Ya-qing,Ren Guo-yu.Identifying and Correcting Urban Bias for Regional Surface Air Temperature Series of North China over Period of 1961~2000[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(4):743-753.
[29]王君,严中伟,李珍,等.近30年城市化对北京极端温度的影响[J].科学通报,2013,58(33):3464-3470.Wang J,Yan Z W,Li Z,et al.Impact of urbanization on changes in temperature extremes in Beijing during 1978~2008[J].Chinese Sci.Bull.,2013,58:4679-4686.
[30]严中伟,王君,李珍,等.基于均一化观测序列评估城市化的气候效应[J].气象科技进展,2014,4(3):41-48.Yan Zhong-wei,Wang Jun,Li Zhen,et al.Assessing Climatic Effects of Urbanization Based on Homogenized Daily Observations[J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2014,4(3):41-48