基于Wiener和Copula函数性能退化模型的减推力起飞可靠性收益评估研究
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摘要
从精细化、规范化管理使用发动机的角度出发,针对航空发动机减推力起飞在可靠性和安全收益指标的贡献度量化评估问题,提出了一种基于性能退化分析的可靠性收益评估方法。建立了单个性能参数Wiener退化量模型,并利用Copula函数进行二元相关性能参数退化量建模,提出了基于Copula函数和Wiener退化过程的二元相关性能可靠性模型。将模型应用于实例分析,通过发动机执行减推力和未执行减推力时的性能退化数据,定量地分析了执行减推力起飞技术对可靠性和在役寿命方面的贡献度,并将文中提出的方法与基于单参数的性能可靠度函数以及二元独立性能参数的性能可靠度函数进行对比分析。结果表明,执行减推力起飞技术的发动机在运行中有更高的安全裕度,在役寿命平均延长了23%左右。
From the point of refinement and standardized management using engine, a method based on performance degradation analysis was proposed targeted at the issue of aero-engine's reduced thrust takeoff reliability and safety benefit assessment. At first, a single performance parameter Wiener degradation model was set up, and Copula function was used to conduct binary relevant parameter degradation modeling. Then a binary relevant parameter reliability model was proposed based on Copula function and Wiener degradation course. Finally the model was applied to case analysis, comparing a certain type of engine with and without reducing thrust, a quantitative analysis was made to prove the contribution in reliability and online life of implementing reduced thrust takeoff technology. And the method proposed in the thesis was compared with performance reliability function based on single parameter and binary independent performance parameters, through analysis. The results show that the engine with the technology of reducing thrust take-off has higher safety margin and an average of23% of the online life is extended.
From the point of refinement and standardized management using engine, a method based on performance degradation analysis was proposed targeted at the issue of aero-engine's reduced thrust takeoff reliability and safety benefit assessment. At first, a single performance parameter Wiener degradation model was set up, and Copula function was used to conduct binary relevant parameter degradation modeling. Then a binary relevant parameter reliability model was proposed based on Copula function and Wiener degradation course. Finally the model was applied to case analysis, comparing a certain type of engine with and without reducing thrust, a quantitative analysis was made to prove the contribution in reliability and online life of implementing reduced thrust takeoff technology. And the method proposed in the thesis was compared with performance reliability function based on single parameter and binary independent performance parameters, through analysis. The results show that the engine with the technology of reducing thrust take-off has higher safety margin and an average of23% of the online life is extended.
引文
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[17]赵凯,李冬,李本威.发动机性能退化恢复技术研究[J].推进技术,2015,36(10):1560-1566.(ZHAO Kai,LI Dong,LI Ben-wei.Research on Performance Recovery for Engine Performance Deterioration[J].Journal of Propulsion Technology,2015,36(10):1560-1566.)
[18]Ahmad K E,Jaheen Z F.Approximate Bayes Estimators Applied to the Inverse Gaussian Lifetime Mode[J].Computers Math Applic,1995,29(12):39-47.
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[20]Seshadri V.The Inverse Gaussian Distribution[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1993.
[2]Kim Y S,Kolarik W J.Real-Time Conditional Reliability Prediction from On-line Tool Performance Data[J].Internal Journal of Production Research,1992,30(8):1831-1844.
[3]朱磊,左洪福,蔡精.基于Wiener过程的民用航空发动机性能可靠性预测[J].航空动力学报,2013,28(5):1006-1012.
[4]王浩伟,徐廷学,王波.基于Wiener模型的某型导弹电连接器寿命预测[J].战术导弹技术,2014,(1):42-45.
[5]刘君强,谢吉伟,左洪福,等.基于随机Wiener过程的航空发动机剩余寿命预测[J].航空学报,2015,36(2):564-574.
[6]任淑红,左洪福.基于多性能参数的民用航空发动机实时性能可靠性预测[J].航空动力学报,2010,25(12):2811-2815.
[7]Pan Z Q,Balakrishnan N.Reliability Modeling of Degradation of Products with Multiple Performance Characteristics Based on Gamma Processes[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2011,96(8):949-957.
[8]Pan Z Q,Balakrishnan N,Suna Q.Bivariate Constantstress Accelerated Degradation Model and Inference[J].Communications in Statistics Simulation and Computation,2011,40(2):247-257.
[9]Pan Z Q,Balakrishnan N,Suna Q,et al.Bivariate Degradation Analysis of Products Based on Wiener Processes and Copulas[J].Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation,2013,83(7):1316-1329.
[10]Barker C T,Newby M J.Optimal Non-Periodic Inspection for a Multivariate Degradation Model[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2009,94(1):33-43.
[11]Park C,Padgett W J.Stochastic Degradation Models with Several Accelerating Variables[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2006,55(2):379-390.
[12]钱锋.桨状CJ1飞机减推力起飞的研究[D].天津:中国民用航空飞行学院,2016.
[13]刘晓明,赵廷渝,温晓航,等.民航运输机减推力起飞技术[J].飞行力学,2009,27(3):83-85.
[14]赵廷渝.涡轮风扇发动机减推力起飞必要性分析[J].中国民航学院学报,2005,23(3):6-8.
[15]李冬,李本威,王永华,等.基于聚类和多尺度优化的超球体核距离评估的航空发动机性能衰退[J].推进技术,2013,34(7):977-983.(LI Dong,LI Benwei,WANG Yong-hua,et al.Aero-Engine Performance Deterioration Evaluation Using Clustering and Multi-Scaling Optimal Hyper Sphere Kernel Distance Assessment[J].Journal of Propulsion Technology,2013,34(7):977-983.)
[16]王大伟,王伟,冯振宇.基于灰色理论的航空发动机可靠性指标评估方法[J].推进技术,2014,35(7):874-881.(WANG Da-wei,WANG Wei,FENG Zhenyu.Evaluation Method on Reliability Index of Aero-Engine Based on Gray Theory[J].Journal of Propulsion Technology,2014,35(7):874-881.)
[17]赵凯,李冬,李本威.发动机性能退化恢复技术研究[J].推进技术,2015,36(10):1560-1566.(ZHAO Kai,LI Dong,LI Ben-wei.Research on Performance Recovery for Engine Performance Deterioration[J].Journal of Propulsion Technology,2015,36(10):1560-1566.)
[18]Ahmad K E,Jaheen Z F.Approximate Bayes Estimators Applied to the Inverse Gaussian Lifetime Mode[J].Computers Math Applic,1995,29(12):39-47.
[19]Chikkara R S,Folks J L.The Inverse Gaussian Distribution:Theory,Methodology and Applications[M].New York:Marcell Dekker,1989.
[20]Seshadri V.The Inverse Gaussian Distribution[M].Oxford:Oxford University Press,1993.