基于临界慢化理论的电力系统自组织临界影响因素阈值计算方法
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摘要
众多复杂系统在临界相变的临界点附近存在临界慢化现象。针对目前大多数理论确定电力系统自组织临界点的算法复杂、计算时间长或无法提供实际应用中最为关心的判别"阈值"信息的现状,将临界慢化理论用于确定电力系统自组织临界点,并基于Mann-Kendall检验方法确定自组织临界影响因素的临界阈值,方法简单、易于实现。CEPRI 36节点系统和甘肃酒泉实例系统的仿真分析结果与滑动T-检验、负荷损失柱状图、幂律尾分布K-S检验证明了以上计算方法的正确性和高效性,从而可为实时预防电力系统大停电并提前做出针对性的预防控制提供理论基础和技术依据。
The phenomenon of critical slowing down near the critical point of critical phase transformation was common in many complex systems. Currently the algorithms to get the power system's self-organized critical point was complicated or could not compute the critical value of related factors, which was concerned most in the application. Therefore critical slowing down theory was applied to seek the selforganized critical point in this article. And further Mann-Kendall test was used to compute the critical value of power system's self-organized critical factors. This method is easy to implement and verified available and efficiency on CEPRI 36 bus system and Jiuquan area in Gansu power grid by simulating and K-S test,slide T-test. And this method can provide theoretical and technical basis for the prevention and control of large-scale blackouts.
The phenomenon of critical slowing down near the critical point of critical phase transformation was common in many complex systems. Currently the algorithms to get the power system's self-organized critical point was complicated or could not compute the critical value of related factors, which was concerned most in the application. Therefore critical slowing down theory was applied to seek the selforganized critical point in this article. And further Mann-Kendall test was used to compute the critical value of power system's self-organized critical factors. This method is easy to implement and verified available and efficiency on CEPRI 36 bus system and Jiuquan area in Gansu power grid by simulating and K-S test,slide T-test. And this method can provide theoretical and technical basis for the prevention and control of large-scale blackouts.
引文
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[17]邓蓉,谭周文,肖郭璇,等.基于压缩感知的电力线脉冲噪声抑制[J].电工技术学报,2018,33(23):33-41.Deng Rong,Tan Zhouwen,Xiao Guoxuan,et al.Impulse noise suppression in power line communication based on compressed sensing[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2018,33(23):33-41.
[18]赵霞,杨仑,瞿小斌,等.电-气综合能源系统能流计算的改进方法[J].电工技术学报,2018,33(3):467-477.Zhao Xia,Yang Lun,Qu Xiaobin,et al.An improved energy flow calculation method for integrated electricity and natural gas system[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2018,33(3):467-477.
[19]Kéfi S,Rietkerk M,Alados C L,et al.Spatial vegetation patterns and imminent desertification in Mediterranean arid ecosystems[J].Nature,2007,449(7159):213-217.
[20]吴浩.基于临界慢化现象的气候突变前兆信号的研究[D].扬州:扬州大学,2014.
[21]王沙燚.灾害系统与灾变动力学研究方法探索[D].杭州:浙江大学,2008.
[22]易俊,周孝信,肖逾男.电力系统自组织临界特性分析与仿真模型[J].电网技术,2008,32(3):7-12.Yi Jun,Zhou Xiaoxin,Xiao Yunan.Analysis on power system self-organized criticality and its simulation model[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(3):7-12.
[23]刘文颖,蔡万通,张宁,等.基于加权网络拓扑熵的电网自组织临界状态演化[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(22):5740-5748.Liu Wenying,Cai Wantong,Zhang Ning,et al.Evolution of grid’s self-organizing critical state based on weighted network topology entropy[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(22):5740-5748.
[24]徐慧明.可识别潮流转移的广域后备保护及其控制策略研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2007.
[25]徐建新,陈学凯,黄鑫.湄潭县降水突变特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2014,35(2):6-11.Xu Jianxin,Chen Xuekai,Huang Xin.Analysis of mutation characteristics of precipitation in meitan county[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2014,35(2):6-11.
[26]刘文颖,但扬清,朱艳伟,等.电网运行断面的自组织临界态辨识和量化分析[J].电网技术,2014,38(8):2076-2081.Liu Wenying,Dan Yangqing,Zhu Yanwei,et al.Identification and quantitative analysis of selforganized critical state in running-grid section[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(8):2076-2081.
[27]曹一家,王光增,曹丽华,等.基于潮流熵的复杂电网自组织临界态判断模型[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(7):1-6.Cao Yijia,Wang Guangzeng,Cao Lihua,et al.An identification model for self-organized criticality of power grids based on power flow entropy[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(7):1-6.
[2]May R M,Levin S A,Sugihara G.Complex systems:ecology for bankers[J].Nature,2008,451(7181):893-895.
[3]Lenton T M,Held H,Kriegler E,et al.Inaugural article:tipping elements in the Earth's climate system[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2008,105(6):1786-1793.
[4]毕如玉,林涛,陈汝斯,等.交直流混合电力系统的安全校正策略[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(9):50-57.Bi Ruyu,Lin Tao,Chen Rusi,et al.The security correction strategy in AC and DC hybrid power system[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(9):50-57.
[5]陈娟,周涛,刘亮,等.不同轴向富集度布置下的超临界水堆物理热工耦合稳态特性[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(29):80-87.Chen Juan,Zhou Tao,Liu Liang,et al.Coupling characteristics of supercritical water-cooled reactor with different enrichment layouts[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(29):80-87.
[6]周涛,孙灿辉,刘梦影,等.超临界水冷堆水棒导热性能研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(20):56-61.Zhou Tao,Sun Canhui,Liu Mengying,et al.Study on heat conduction performance of water-rod in SCWR[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(20):56-61.
[7]高丽娟,杨又陵,刘建明,等.新疆2次中强地震前的临界慢化现象研究[J].内陆地震,2013,27(4):311-318.Gao Lijuan,Yang Youling,Liu Jianming,et al.Research on critical slowing down precursor before two moderate earthquakes in xinjiang[J].Inland Earthquake,2013,27(4):311-318.
[8]吴浩,侯威,颜鹏程.试用临界慢化原理探讨气候突变[J].物理学报,2013,62(3):548-558.Wu Hao,Hou Wei,Yan Pengcheng.Using the principle of critical slowing down to discuss the abrupt climate change[J].Acta Physica Sinica,2013,62(3):548-558.
[9]Podolsky D,Turitsyn K.Critical slowing-down as indicator of approach to the loss of stability[C]//IEEEInternational Conference on Smart Grid Communications,Vancouver,BC,Canada,2013:19-24.
[10]范佳琪.基于临界相变的电力系统连锁故障早期预警机理研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2015.
[11]项胜,何怡刚,吴可汗.基于分形理论的国内大停电分析[J].电工技术学报,2013,28(增刊2):367-371.Xiang Sheng,He Yigang,Wu Kehan.Blackout analysis of domestic power based on fractal theory[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2013,28(S2):367-371.
[12]熊一,查晓明,秦亮,等.风电功率爬坡气象场景分类模型及阈值整定研究[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(19):155-162.Xiong Yi,Zha Xiaoming,Qin Liang,et al.Study on wind power ramping weather scenario classification model and threshold setting[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(19):155-162.
[13]顾雪平,刘雨濛,王涛,等.基于结构平衡理论的电网自组织临界态辨识[J].电工技术学报,2018,33(17):4136-4145.Gu Xueping,Liu Yumemg,Wang Tao,et al.Selforganized critical state identification of power systems based on structural equilibrium theory[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2018,33(17):4136-4145.
[14]封国林,董文杰,龚志强,等.观测数据非线性时空分布理论和方法[M].北京:气象出版社,2006.
[15]Bak P.How nature works:the science of selforganized criticality[M].New York:Copernicus Press,1996.
[16]刘友波,胡斌,刘俊勇,等.电力系统连锁故障分析理论与应用(一)--相关理论方法与应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(9):148-155.Liu Youbo,Hu Bin,Liu Junyong,et al.Power system cascading failure analysis theories and applicationⅠ-related theories and applications[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(9):148-155.
[17]邓蓉,谭周文,肖郭璇,等.基于压缩感知的电力线脉冲噪声抑制[J].电工技术学报,2018,33(23):33-41.Deng Rong,Tan Zhouwen,Xiao Guoxuan,et al.Impulse noise suppression in power line communication based on compressed sensing[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2018,33(23):33-41.
[18]赵霞,杨仑,瞿小斌,等.电-气综合能源系统能流计算的改进方法[J].电工技术学报,2018,33(3):467-477.Zhao Xia,Yang Lun,Qu Xiaobin,et al.An improved energy flow calculation method for integrated electricity and natural gas system[J].Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society,2018,33(3):467-477.
[19]Kéfi S,Rietkerk M,Alados C L,et al.Spatial vegetation patterns and imminent desertification in Mediterranean arid ecosystems[J].Nature,2007,449(7159):213-217.
[20]吴浩.基于临界慢化现象的气候突变前兆信号的研究[D].扬州:扬州大学,2014.
[21]王沙燚.灾害系统与灾变动力学研究方法探索[D].杭州:浙江大学,2008.
[22]易俊,周孝信,肖逾男.电力系统自组织临界特性分析与仿真模型[J].电网技术,2008,32(3):7-12.Yi Jun,Zhou Xiaoxin,Xiao Yunan.Analysis on power system self-organized criticality and its simulation model[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(3):7-12.
[23]刘文颖,蔡万通,张宁,等.基于加权网络拓扑熵的电网自组织临界状态演化[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(22):5740-5748.Liu Wenying,Cai Wantong,Zhang Ning,et al.Evolution of grid’s self-organizing critical state based on weighted network topology entropy[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(22):5740-5748.
[24]徐慧明.可识别潮流转移的广域后备保护及其控制策略研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2007.
[25]徐建新,陈学凯,黄鑫.湄潭县降水突变特征分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2014,35(2):6-11.Xu Jianxin,Chen Xuekai,Huang Xin.Analysis of mutation characteristics of precipitation in meitan county[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2014,35(2):6-11.
[26]刘文颖,但扬清,朱艳伟,等.电网运行断面的自组织临界态辨识和量化分析[J].电网技术,2014,38(8):2076-2081.Liu Wenying,Dan Yangqing,Zhu Yanwei,et al.Identification and quantitative analysis of selforganized critical state in running-grid section[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(8):2076-2081.
[27]曹一家,王光增,曹丽华,等.基于潮流熵的复杂电网自组织临界态判断模型[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(7):1-6.Cao Yijia,Wang Guangzeng,Cao Lihua,et al.An identification model for self-organized criticality of power grids based on power flow entropy[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(7):1-6.