城乡差异视角下的人口结构、医疗保险与居民高储蓄
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摘要
基于城乡差异的视角考察人口结构和医疗保险制度对居民预防性储蓄动机的影响。实证结果表明:老年抚养比和少儿抚养比对居民储蓄起到一定的抑制作用,医疗覆盖面和医疗保险缴费水平对居民储蓄的影响为正。从城镇和农村分样本回归结果来看,少儿抚养比对城镇居民和农村居民的储蓄均呈现显著负向影响,老年抚养比对城市居民储蓄影响并不显著,而对农村居民的储蓄呈显著负向影响,医疗保险覆盖面对城镇居民储蓄呈现不显著的影响,对农村居民储蓄呈现显著正向影响。医疗保险的缴费率对城镇居民的储蓄存在显著正向影响,而对农村居民的储蓄存在显著负向影响。研究表明目前的医疗保险制度并没有起到缓解居民预防性储蓄的作用。实施全面二孩政策和医疗保险制度改革降低未来风险的不确定性,对降低高储蓄可以起到一定的作用。
This paper researches urban and rural areas from the perspective of population structure and medical insurance system based on precautionary savings. The empirical results show that the burden of child rearing and the negative effects of elderly support are negative for residents' savings,and the impact of medical coverage and medical insurance payment on savings is positive. From the urban and rural sub sample regression results,the child dependency ratio has significant negative influence on urban and rural residents savings,the elderly dependency ratio's influence on city residents savings is not significant,but its influence on rural residents savings rate is significantly negative. Health care insurance coverage does not affect urban residents' savings obviously,while has a significant positive effect on rural residents savings. The contribution rate of medical insurance has positive influence on the savings of urban residents,but has a significant negative impact on the savings of rural residents. Studies show that the current medical insurance system does not alleviate the precautionary savings role of residents. The current implementation of the comprehensive two child policy and the reduction of the uncertainty of future risks through the reform of the medical insurance system can play a role in reducing the high savings.
This paper researches urban and rural areas from the perspective of population structure and medical insurance system based on precautionary savings. The empirical results show that the burden of child rearing and the negative effects of elderly support are negative for residents' savings,and the impact of medical coverage and medical insurance payment on savings is positive. From the urban and rural sub sample regression results,the child dependency ratio has significant negative influence on urban and rural residents savings,the elderly dependency ratio's influence on city residents savings is not significant,but its influence on rural residents savings rate is significantly negative. Health care insurance coverage does not affect urban residents' savings obviously,while has a significant positive effect on rural residents savings. The contribution rate of medical insurance has positive influence on the savings of urban residents,but has a significant negative impact on the savings of rural residents. Studies show that the current medical insurance system does not alleviate the precautionary savings role of residents. The current implementation of the comprehensive two child policy and the reduction of the uncertainty of future risks through the reform of the medical insurance system can play a role in reducing the high savings.
引文
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[23]李建民.对人口红利的再认识:来源结构与机制[J].贵州财经大学学报,2016(6):1-6.
[2]MODIGLIENNI F,CAO S C.The Chinese Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis[J].Journal of Economic Literature,2004(22):145-170.
[3]金刚,柳清瑞,张秋秋.分段预期寿命对国民储蓄率的影响效应[J].中国人口科学,2015(6):3-8.
[4]YASIN J.Demographic structure and private saving:some evidence from emerging markets[Z].Working Paper,2007.
[5]汪伟.经济增长、人口结构变化与中国高储蓄率[J].经济学(季刊),2009(10):29-52.
[6]王德文,蔡昉,张学辉.人口转变的储蓄效应和增长效应[论中国增长可持续性的人口因素[J].人口研究,2004(5):2-11.
[7]袁志刚,宋铮.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度与最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000(11):24-32.
[8]KOTLIKOFF L J.Health expenditures and precautionary savings[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,1986.
[9]HUBHARD R G,SKINNER J,ZELDES S P.Expanding the life-cycle model:precautionary saving and public policy[J].American Economic Review,1994,84(2):174-179.
[10]GRUBER J,YELOWITZ A.Public health insurance and private savings[J].Journal of Political Economy,1999,107(6):1249-1274.
[11]FEENBERG D,SKINNER J.The risk and duration of catastrophic health care expenditures[J].Review of Economics&Statistics,1992,76(4):633-647.
[12]CHOU S Y,LIU J T,HAMMITT J K.National health insurance and precautionary saving:evidence from Taiwan[J].Journal of Public Economics,2003,87(9-10):1873-1894.
[13]白重恩,李宏彬,吴斌珍.医疗保险与消费:来自新型农村合作医疗的证据[J].经济研究,2012(2):41-53.
[14]BROOKS R.Population aging and global capital flows in a parallel universe[J].IMF Economic Review,2003,50(2):200-221.
[15]汪伟,艾春荣.人口老龄化与中国储蓄率的动态变化[J].管理世界,2015(10):47-62.
[16]郭金龙,张昊.中国保险业发展的人口因素分析[J].中国人口科学,2005(1):74-81.
[17]倪红福,李善同,何建武.人口结构变化对消费结构及储蓄率的影响分析[J].人口与发展,2014(5):25-34.
[18]孙祁祥,锁凌燕,郑伟.论新形势下社会保障的协调发展[J],中共中央党校学报,2016(8):98-104.
[19]周依群,王国军.人口结构、地区差异与社会保险支出——基于我国省际面板数据的实证研究[J].现代经济探讨,2017(11):23-32.
[20]周依群,王国军.人口出生率对居民储蓄影响的实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016(s2):266-269.
[21]杨继军.预期寿命延长对居民储蓄的影响:理论与中国的经验分析[J].南京财经大学学报,2016(11):11-17.
[22]洪源,王群群,秦玉奇.城乡二元经济结构下民生财政对城乡居民收入差距的影响[J].经济与管理研究,2016(1):22-30.
[23]李建民.对人口红利的再认识:来源结构与机制[J].贵州财经大学学报,2016(6):1-6.