基于改进可拓层次分析的停电影响综合评估
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摘要
针对电力系统的停电影响综合评估问题,提出了一种新的改进可拓层次分析法(Improved Extension Analytic Hierarchy Process, IEAHP)。首先,建立停电影响的指标体系以全面表征各次停电的影响程度。其次,根据历史停电数据与评估专家的经验,划分出停电严重程度等级,并运用可拓集理论计算停电事件的指标与等级隶属度。接着,利用可拓区间的形式构建判断矩阵以解决专家的主观赋权模糊性问题,并通过客观的专家权重分配方式对各个判断矩阵进行合并计算,从而实现停电影响的综合评估。最后,将所提方法用于实际停电事件评估,所得结果证明了其有效性。
Aiming at the comprehensive evaluation of the impact of power failure on power systems, a new Improved Extension Analytic Hierarchy Process(IEAHP) is presented in this paper. Firstly, the indicator system is established to fully characterize the impact of each power failure. Secondly, the power failure levels are divided based on historical data of power failures and experience of evaluation experts, and then the extension set theory is used to calculate the membership of the indicators to the levels. Thirdly, the judgment matrix is constructed by the extension interval in order to reduce the experts' subjective empowerment vagueness, then the judgment matrices are combined through the objective allocation of expert weights so as to provide a comprehensive assessment of the impact of power falure. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the assessment of real power failures, and the results prove its effectiveness.
Aiming at the comprehensive evaluation of the impact of power failure on power systems, a new Improved Extension Analytic Hierarchy Process(IEAHP) is presented in this paper. Firstly, the indicator system is established to fully characterize the impact of each power failure. Secondly, the power failure levels are divided based on historical data of power failures and experience of evaluation experts, and then the extension set theory is used to calculate the membership of the indicators to the levels. Thirdly, the judgment matrix is constructed by the extension interval in order to reduce the experts' subjective empowerment vagueness, then the judgment matrices are combined through the objective allocation of expert weights so as to provide a comprehensive assessment of the impact of power falure. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the assessment of real power failures, and the results prove its effectiveness.
引文
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[13]高攀.区域电力系统安全风险评估研究[D].上海:上海电力学院,2016.GAO Pan.Study on security risk assessment of power system based on BP neural network[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Institute of Electric Power,2016.
[14]成云雪.火电企业节能减排效果评价研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2013.CHENG Yunxue.Research on the effect evaluation of energy-saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprises[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2013.
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[16]郑慧娟.基于改进的可拓层次分析法的指挥控制系统作战效能评估指标赋权[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2014,28(1):12-15.ZHENG Huijuan.Determining index weight of operational effectiveness assessment of command and control System based on improved extension Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Journal of Armored Force Engineering College,2014,28(1):12-15.
[17]朱振中,石志敏.新产品开发中评价指标体系的建立与模糊综合评价[J].山东工程学院学报,2001(3):70-74.ZHU Zhenzhong,SHI Zhimin.Building evaluation system and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in new product development[J].Journal of Shandong Institute of Engineering,2001(3):70-74.
[18]张文俊.配电网故障停电风险评估指标体系及评估方法研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2014.ZHANG Wenjun.Research on index system and evaluation methods of distribution network fault outage risk assessment[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2014.
[19]王枭,刘天琪,赵颖聪,等.电力系统停电影响评价指标体系及其应用[J].华东电力,2014,42(2):253-256.WANG Xiao,LIU Tianqi,ZHAO Yingcong,et al.Evaluation index system for power system blackout impacts and its application[J].East China Electric Power,2014,42(2):253-256.
[20]丁立,贾秀芳,赵成勇,等.基于可拓学的电能质量综合评价[J].电力自动化设备,2007,37(12):44-47,52.DING Li,JIA Xiufang,ZHAO Chengyong,et al.Synthetic evaluation of power quality based on extenics[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2007,37(12):44-47,52.
[21]田梁玉,唐忠,焦婷,等.基于多目标评判法的微电网经济性指标研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(19):122-127.TIAN Liangyu,TANG Zhong,JIAO Ting,et al.Economic indicators research of microgrid based on multi-objective evaluation method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(19):122-127.
[22]蒋小军.可拓学理论在地基土评价中的应用[D].上海:同济大学,2007.JIANG Xiaojun.Application of the theory of extenics to evaluation of subsoil[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,2007.
[2]向德军,王彬,郭文鑫,等.基于人工神经网络的电力系统精细化安全运行规则[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(18):32-37.XIANG Dejun,WANG Bin,GUO Wenxin,et al.Fine security rule for power system operation based on artificial neural network[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(18):32-37.
[3]邓红雷,戴栋,李述文.基于层次分析-熵权组合法的架空输电线路综合运行风险评估[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(1):28-34.DEND Honglei,DAI Dong,LI Shuwen.Comprehensive operation risk evaluation of overhead transmission line based on hierarchical analysis-entropy weight method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(1):28-34.
[4]周名煜,谢宁,王承民.基于灵敏度和灰色关联度的配电网运行方式变权重评估方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2017,45(13):130-137.ZHOU Mingyu,XIE Ning,WANG Chengmin.Variable weight evaluation method of distribution network operation mode based on sensitivity and grey correlation[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(13):130-137.
[5]BENIDRIS M,MITRA J,SINGH C.Integrated evaluation of reliability and stability of power systems[J].IEEETransactions on Power Systems,2017,32(5):4131-4139.
[6]王勇,韩学山,丁颖,等.基于马尔科夫链的电力系统运行可靠性快速评估[J].电网技术,2013,37(2):405-410.WANG Yong,HAN Xueshan,DING Ying,et al.Markov Chain-based rapid assessment on operational reliability of power grid[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(2):405-410.
[7]王博,游大海,尹项根,等.基于多因素分析的复杂电力系统安全风险评估体系[J].电网技术,2011,35(1):40-45.WANG Bo,YOU Dahai,YIN Xianggen,et al.A security risk assessment system of complicated power grid based on multiple factor analysis[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(1):40-45.
[8]沈阳武,彭晓涛,施通勤,等.基于最优组合权重的电能质量灰色综合评价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(10):67-73.SHEN Yangwu,PENG Xiaotao,SHI Tongqin,et al.Agray comprehensive evaluation method of power quality based on optimal combination weight[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(10):67-73.
[9]侯雨伸,王秀丽,刘杰,等.基于拟蒙特卡罗方法的电力系统可靠性评估[J].电网技术,2015,39(3):744-750.HOU Yushen,WANG Xiuli,LIU Jie,et al.A Quasi-Monte Carlo method based power system reliability evaluation[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(3):744-750.
[10]欧阳森,石怡理.改进熵权法及其在电能质量评估中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(21):156-159,164.OOUYANG Sen,SHI Yili.A new improved entropy method and its application in power quality evaluation[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(21):156-159,164.
[11]李蕊,李跃,徐浩,等.基于层次分析法和专家经验的重要电力用户典型供电模式评估[J].电网技术,2014,38(9):2336-2341.LI Rui,LI Yue,XU Hao,et al.Assessment on typical power supply mode for important power consumers based on analytical hierarchy process and expert experience[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(9):2336-2341.
[12]杨小彬,李和明,尹忠东,等.基于层次分析法的配电网能效指标体系[J].电力系统自动化,2013,37(21):146-150,195.YANG Xiaobin,LI Heming,YIN Zhongdong,et al.Energy efficiency index system of distribution network based on analytic hierarchy process[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2013,37(21):146-150,195.
[13]高攀.区域电力系统安全风险评估研究[D].上海:上海电力学院,2016.GAO Pan.Study on security risk assessment of power system based on BP neural network[D].Shanghai:Shanghai Institute of Electric Power,2016.
[14]成云雪.火电企业节能减排效果评价研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2013.CHENG Yunxue.Research on the effect evaluation of energy-saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprises[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2013.
[15]蔡文,杨春燕.可拓学的基础理论与方法体系[J].科学通报,2013,58(13):1190-1199.CAI Wen,YANG Chunyan.Basic theory and methodology on extenics[J].Science Bulletin,2013,58(13):1190-1199.
[16]郑慧娟.基于改进的可拓层次分析法的指挥控制系统作战效能评估指标赋权[J].装甲兵工程学院学报,2014,28(1):12-15.ZHENG Huijuan.Determining index weight of operational effectiveness assessment of command and control System based on improved extension Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].Journal of Armored Force Engineering College,2014,28(1):12-15.
[17]朱振中,石志敏.新产品开发中评价指标体系的建立与模糊综合评价[J].山东工程学院学报,2001(3):70-74.ZHU Zhenzhong,SHI Zhimin.Building evaluation system and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation in new product development[J].Journal of Shandong Institute of Engineering,2001(3):70-74.
[18]张文俊.配电网故障停电风险评估指标体系及评估方法研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2014.ZHANG Wenjun.Research on index system and evaluation methods of distribution network fault outage risk assessment[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2014.
[19]王枭,刘天琪,赵颖聪,等.电力系统停电影响评价指标体系及其应用[J].华东电力,2014,42(2):253-256.WANG Xiao,LIU Tianqi,ZHAO Yingcong,et al.Evaluation index system for power system blackout impacts and its application[J].East China Electric Power,2014,42(2):253-256.
[20]丁立,贾秀芳,赵成勇,等.基于可拓学的电能质量综合评价[J].电力自动化设备,2007,37(12):44-47,52.DING Li,JIA Xiufang,ZHAO Chengyong,et al.Synthetic evaluation of power quality based on extenics[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2007,37(12):44-47,52.
[21]田梁玉,唐忠,焦婷,等.基于多目标评判法的微电网经济性指标研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(19):122-127.TIAN Liangyu,TANG Zhong,JIAO Ting,et al.Economic indicators research of microgrid based on multi-objective evaluation method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(19):122-127.
[22]蒋小军.可拓学理论在地基土评价中的应用[D].上海:同济大学,2007.JIANG Xiaojun.Application of the theory of extenics to evaluation of subsoil[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,2007.