山洪灾害防御研究进展
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摘要
从防治理念、预报预警和风险评估三个方面,对当今国内外山洪灾害防御研究工作进行梳理,总结和比较了国内外山洪防御研究现状与差异,以期为明晰我国现阶段山洪防御水平、找准未来工作重点提供参考。认为与先进国家相比,我国山洪防治理念对保险和土地利用管理措施关注不够,需在充实"非工程措施"内涵的基础上,对相关工作进行深入探索和实践;我国山洪预报预警的准确率与先进国家尚存一定差距,落后的山区局地降雨监测预报支持系统和高度概化的预报预警模型是其中的重要原因;要素风险评估技术在国内外山洪风险格局分析中得到了普遍应用,不再是山洪防御工作的瓶颈,而物理机制更强的过程风险评估的发展尚不能满足现实需求,是今后研究中需要着力加强的部分。
The review of current situations and differences between the domestic and foreign researches on flash flood disaster prevention has been made in order to provide a reference on understanding the domestic prevention level and the key points in the future work based on the three aspects, i.e. prevention and control idea, forecast and early warning and risk assessment. The paper concludes that the measures of insurance and landuse management had been paid little attention in the domestic prevention and control idea comparing with the advanced countries, thus the corresponding contents should be explored and implemented in the future. Besides, there is still a gap needed to be filled on the accuracy rate of flash flood forecast and early warning with the other advanced countries because of the undeveloped software and hardware system on local rainfall monitoring and forecast inner mountain area and the highly simplified hydrological model. The risk assessment based on cause analysis method, which has been used widely in the world, is no longer the bottleneck to the work of flash flood prevention. However, the development of risk assessment based on process analysis method, which has better mathematic expression on flash flood disaster processes, can still hardly meet the actual needs of prevention work, and this part should be strengthened in the future study.
The review of current situations and differences between the domestic and foreign researches on flash flood disaster prevention has been made in order to provide a reference on understanding the domestic prevention level and the key points in the future work based on the three aspects, i.e. prevention and control idea, forecast and early warning and risk assessment. The paper concludes that the measures of insurance and landuse management had been paid little attention in the domestic prevention and control idea comparing with the advanced countries, thus the corresponding contents should be explored and implemented in the future. Besides, there is still a gap needed to be filled on the accuracy rate of flash flood forecast and early warning with the other advanced countries because of the undeveloped software and hardware system on local rainfall monitoring and forecast inner mountain area and the highly simplified hydrological model. The risk assessment based on cause analysis method, which has been used widely in the world, is no longer the bottleneck to the work of flash flood prevention. However, the development of risk assessment based on process analysis method, which has better mathematic expression on flash flood disaster processes, can still hardly meet the actual needs of prevention work, and this part should be strengthened in the future study.
引文
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[33] 包红军, 李致家, 王莉莉, 等.基于分布式水文模型的小流域山洪预报方法与应用[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2017,36(2):156-163.
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[39] 李雪, 李井冈, 刘小利, 等. 三峡库首区滑坡空间分布特征分析及危险性评价[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2016, 36 (7): 630-634.
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[2] National Weather Service. NWS Glossary[EB/OL]. [2018-01-01].http://w1.weather.gov/glossary/index.php.
[3] Georgakakos K P. On the design of national, real-time warning systems with capability for site-specific, flash flood forecasts[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 1986, 67(10): 1233-1239.
[4] Marchi L, Borga M, Preciso E, et al. Characterisation of selected extreme flash floods in Europe and implications for flood risk management[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2010, 394(1/2): 118-133.
[5] 全国山洪灾害防治项目组. 山洪灾害调查技术要求[Z].北京: 中国水利水电科学研究院. 2014.
[6] 甘建军, 孙海燕, 黄润秋, 等. 汶川县映秀镇红椿沟特大型泥石流形成机制及堵江机理研究[J]. 灾害学, 2012, 27(1): 5-16.
[7] 李椷, 陈德琴, 康志诚. 云南东川蒋家沟泥石流发生、发展过程的初步分析[J]. 地理学报, 1979, 34(2): 156-167.
[8] 刘传正, 苗天宝, 陈红旗, 等. 甘肃周曲2010年8月8日特大山洪泥石流灾害的基本特征及成因[J]. 地质通报, 2011, 30(1): 141-150.
[9] 苏鹏程, 韦方强, 谢涛. 云南贡山“8.18”特大泥石流成因及其对矿产资源开发的危害[J]. 资源科学, 2012, 34(7): 1248-1256.
[10] 唐川, 铁永波. 川震区北川县城魏家沟暴雨泥石流灾害调查分析[J]. 山地学报, 2009, 27(5): 625-630.
[11] Ashley S, Ashley W. Flood fatalities in the United States[J]. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 2008, 47: 806-818.
[12] Borga M, Anagnostou E N, Bloschl G, et al. Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project[J]. Environmental Science and Policy, 2011, 14: 834-844.
[13] 国家防汛抗旱总指挥部, 中华人民共和国水利部. 2013中国水旱灾害公报[M]. 北京: 中国水利水电出版社, 2013.
[14] 水利部长江水利委员会. 全国山洪灾害防治规划报告[R]. 武汉:水利部长江水利委员会, 2006.
[15] 邱瑞田, 黄先龙, 张大伟, 等. 我国山洪灾害防治非工程措施建设实践[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2012,22(1): 31-33.
[16] Orencio P M, Fujii M. A localized disaster-resilience index to assess coastal communities based on an analytic hierarchy process (AHP)[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2013 (3): 62-75.
[17] 何秉顺, 黄先龙, 张双艳. 山洪沟治理工程设计要点探讨[J]. 中国水利, 2012 (23): 13-15.
[18] Kostadinov S, Dragi?evi?S, Stefanovi?T, et al. Torrential flood prevention in the Kolubara river basin[J]. Journal of Mountain Science, 2017,14(11): 2230-2245.
[19] 孙南申, 彭岳. 自然灾害保险产品设计与制度构建[J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2010 (3): 20-27.
[20] Ali S A, Ikbal J, Aldharab H, et al. Watershed analysis and Landuse Management to Protect from Flash Flood in the Semi-Arid Region Udaipur, Northwestern India using Geospatial Techniques[J]. International Journal of Scientific Research in Science and Technology, 2018, 4(2): 601-612.
[21] Barraqué B. The common property issue in flood control through land use in France[J]. Journal of Flood Risk Management,2017,10(2): 182-194.
[22] Clark R, Gourley J, Flamig Z, et al. CONUS-wide evaluation of National Weather Service Flash Flood Guidance products[J]. Weather and Forecasting, 2014, 29(2): 377-392.
[23] Ortigao A, Fonseca P, Duarte M. Flash flood control works around the Maracan stadium district in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil[J]. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, 2013, 166(6): 44-48.
[24] Sweeney T, Baumgardner T. Modernized flash flood guidance[R]. Report to NWS hydrology laboratory, 1999, 11.
[25] Schmidt J, Anderson A, Paul J. Spatially-variable, physically-derived, flash flood guidance[C]// Paper 6B.2, Proceedings of the 21st Conference on Hydrology, 87th Meeting of the American Meteorological?Society, 2007, January 15-18, San Antonio, Texas.
[26] Carpenter T, Sperfslage J, Georgakakos K, et al. National threshold runoff estimation utilizing GIS in support of operational flash flood warning systems[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 1999, 224: 21-44.
[27] Smith S B, Filiaggi M T, Roe J, et al. Flash flood monitoring and prediction in AWIPS Build and beyond[C]//Presented at 15th Conference on Hydrology, American Meteorological Society, 2000, January 9-14, Long Beach, California.
[28] Gourley J, Flamig Z, Vergara H, et al. The Flash project: improving the tools for flash flood monitoring and prediction across the United States[J]. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017, 98: 361-372.
[29] 孙东亚, 张红萍. 欧美山洪灾害防治研究进展及实践[J]. 中国水利, 2012 (23): 16-17.
[30] 邱瑞田, 黄先龙, 褚明华, 等. 2015 年全国山洪灾害防治工作进展[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2016, 26(1): 41-44.
[31] 何秉顺, 常凊睿, 凌永玉. 日本中小河流山洪预报研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2016 , 26 (6): 51-56.
[32] 郭良, 唐学哲, 孔凡哲. 基于分布式水文模型的山洪灾害预警预报系统研究及应用[J]. 中国水利, 2007 (14): 38-41.
[33] 包红军, 李致家, 王莉莉, 等.基于分布式水文模型的小流域山洪预报方法与应用[J]. 暴雨灾害, 2017,36(2):156-163.
[34] 蔡维英, 刘兴朋, 张继权. 基于分布式SCS模型的山地景区山洪灾害模拟研究[J]. 灾害学, 2016,31(2):15-18.
[35] 刘希林, 莫多闻. 泥石流风险及沟谷泥石流风险度评价[J]. 工程地质学报, 2002,10(3): 266-273.
[36] United Nations. Department of Humanitarian Affairs. Internationally agreed glossary of basic terms related to disaster management[Z], 1992, DNA/93/36, Geneva.
[37] 史培军. 四论灾害系统研究的理论和实践[J]. 自然灾害学报,2005,24(6): 1-7.
[38] 杜俊, 肖翔, 蔡道明, 等. 汶川震区山洪泥石流灾害危险性评估[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2015,32(3): 77-83.
[39] 李雪, 李井冈, 刘小利, 等. 三峡库首区滑坡空间分布特征分析及危险性评价[J]. 大地测量与地球动力学, 2016, 36 (7): 630-634.
[40] 罗真富, 蒲达成, 谢洪斌, 等. 基于GIS和信息量法的泥石流流域滑坡危险性评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报,2011,21(11): 144-150.
[41] Youssef A M, Pradham B, Hassan A M. Flash flood risk estimation along the St. Katherine road, southern Sinai, Egypt using GIS based morphometry and satellite imagery[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2011, 62(3): 611-623.
[42] ZENG Z, TANG G, LONG D, et al. A cascading flash flood guidance system: development and application in Yunnan Province, China[J]. Natural Hazards, 2016,84(3): 2071-2093.
[43] ZeleňákováM, GaňováL, Purcz P, et al. Methodology of flood risk assessment from flash floods based on hazard and vulnerability of the river basin[J]. Natural Hazards,2015,79(3): 2055-2071.
[44] 方秀琴, 王凯, 任立良, 等. 基于GIS的江西省山洪灾害风险评价与分区[J]. 灾害学, 2017, 32(1): 111-116.
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