基于权重融合和云模型的岩爆倾向性预测研究
|
摘要
岩爆倾向性预测是地下工程防灾减灾的基础工作之一。针对现有数学模型在确定岩爆指标综合权重中缺少必要的检验过程以及预测准确度不高的不足,提出了一种岩爆倾向性预测的改进云模型。改进模型通过云理论中的云雾化条件来对指标权重进行融合,进而获取通过检验后的指标综合权重;通过对原始云模型进行修正,运用综合云算法生成等级综合云,弥补了原始云模型对等级区间均值过于敏感的不足。最后将国内外若干岩爆实例用于验证提出模型的科学性和实用性。结果表明:基于云理论的权重融合方法能够获得更为合理的综合权重,提出的改进模型能够较好地应用于岩爆倾向性预测工作中。
Prediction of rock burst tendency is one of the basic tasks of disaster prevention and reduction in underground engineering. In view of the existing mathematical models, there are some shortages in the necessary inspection process determining the comprehensive weight of the rock burst index, and there is low accuracy for predicting the rock burst. An improved cloud model for predicting rock bursts is proposed. The improved model is fused with the index weight through cloud atomization conditions in the cloud theory. And the comprehensive weight of the index after the test is obtained. By modifying the standard cloud model and generating the hierarchical integrated cloud by comprehensive cloud algorithm, the deficiencies that the standard cloud model is too sensitive to the average grade range are made up. A number of rock burst examples are used to verify the proposed model. The results show that a more reasonable comprehensive weight can be obtained using the weight fusion method based on the cloud theory. The improved model can be well applied to the prediction of rock burst tendency.
Prediction of rock burst tendency is one of the basic tasks of disaster prevention and reduction in underground engineering. In view of the existing mathematical models, there are some shortages in the necessary inspection process determining the comprehensive weight of the rock burst index, and there is low accuracy for predicting the rock burst. An improved cloud model for predicting rock bursts is proposed. The improved model is fused with the index weight through cloud atomization conditions in the cloud theory. And the comprehensive weight of the index after the test is obtained. By modifying the standard cloud model and generating the hierarchical integrated cloud by comprehensive cloud algorithm, the deficiencies that the standard cloud model is too sensitive to the average grade range are made up. A number of rock burst examples are used to verify the proposed model. The results show that a more reasonable comprehensive weight can be obtained using the weight fusion method based on the cloud theory. The improved model can be well applied to the prediction of rock burst tendency.
引文
[1]陈鹏宇,余宏明,师华鹏.基于权重反分析和标准化模糊综合评价的岩爆预测模型[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(10):2154–2160.(CHENG Peng-yu,YU Hong-ming,SHI Hua-peng.Prediction model for rockburst based on weighted back analysis and standardized fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2014,33(10):2154–2160.(in Chinese))
[2]贾义鹏,吕庆,尚岳全,等.基于证据理论的岩爆预测[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(6):1079–1086.(JIA Yi-peng,LüQing,SHANG Yue-quan,et al.Rockburst prediction based on evidence theory[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2014,36(6):1079–1086.(in Chinese))
[3]白云飞,邓建,董陇军,等.深部硬岩岩爆预测的FDA模型及其应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2009,40(5):1417–1422.(BAI Yun-fei,DENG Jian,DONG Long-jun,et al.Fisher discriminant analysis model of rock burst prediction and its application in deep hard rock engineering[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2009,40(5):1417–1422.(in Chinese))
[4]刘磊磊,张绍和,王晓密,等.变权靶心贴近度在岩爆烈度预测中的应用[J].爆炸与冲击,2015,35(1):43–50.(LIU Lei-lei,ZHANG Shao-he,WANG Xiao-mi,et al.Application of target approaching with variable weight in prediction of rockburst intensity[J].Explosion and Shock Waves,2015,35(1):43–50.(in Chinese))
[5]王元汉,李卧东,李启光,等.岩爆预测的模糊数学综合评判方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1998,17(5):493–501.(WANG Yuan-han,LI Wo-dong,LI Qi-guang,et al.Method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluations for rockburst prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1998,17(5):493–501.(in Chinese))
[6]王迎超,尚岳全,孙红月,等.基于熵权-理想点法的岩爆烈度预测模型及其应用[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(2):218–221.(WANG Ying-chao,SHANG Yue-quan,SUN Hong-yue,et al.Research and application of rockburst intensity prediction model based on entropy coefficient and ideal point method[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(2):218–221.(in Chinese))
[7]史秀志,周健,董蕾,等.未确知测度模型在岩爆烈度分级预测中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(增刊1):2720–2726.(SHI Xiu-zhi,ZHOU Jian,DONG Lei,et al.Application of unascertained measurement model to prediction of classification of rockburst intensity[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(S1):2720–2726.(in Chinese))
[8]熊孝波,桂国庆,许建聪,等.可拓工程方法在地下工程岩爆预测中的应用[J].解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版),2007,8(6):695–701.(XIONG Xiao-bo,DU Guo-qing,XU Jian-cong,et al.Application of extension method to prediction of rockburst of underground engineering[J].Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition),2007,8(6):695–701.(in Chinese))
[9]胡建华,尚俊龙,周科平.岩爆烈度预测的改进物元可拓模型与实例分析[J].中国有色金属学报,2013,23(2):495–502.(HU Jian-hua,SHANG Jun-long,ZHOU Ke-ping.Improved matter-element extension model and its application to prediction of rockburst intensity[J].The Chinese Journal of Nonferrous Metals,2013,23(2):495–502.(in Chinese))
[10]周宣赤,白春华,王仲琦,等.粒子群投影寻踪算法在岩爆预测中的应用[J].上海交通大学学报,2012,46(12):1956–1961.(ZHOU Xuan-chi,BAI Chun-hua,WANG Zhong-qi,et al.Application of Projection Pursuit model and Particle Swarm Optimization in rock burst prediction[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2012,46(12):1956–1961.(in Chinese))
[11]裴启涛,李海波,刘亚群,等.基于组合赋权的岩爆倾向性预测灰评估模型及应用[J].岩土力学,2014,35(增刊1):49–56.(PEI Qi-tao,LI Hai-bo,LIU Ya-qun,et al.A grey evaluation model for predicting rockburst proneness based on combination weight and its application[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2014,35(S1):49–56.(in Chinese))
[12]王迎超,靖洪文,张强,等.基于正态云模型的深埋地下工程岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2015,36(4):1189–1194.(WANG Ying-chao,JING Hong-wen,ZHANG Qiang,et al.A normal cloud model-based study of grading prediction of rockburst intensity in deep underground engineering[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2015,36(4):1189–1194.(in Chinese))
[13]周科平,林允,胡建华,等.基于熵权–正态云模型的岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2016,37(增刊1):596–602.(ZHOU Ke-ping,LIN Yun,HU Jian-hua,et al.Grading prediction of rockburst intensity based on Entropy and normal cloud model[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(S1):596–602.(in Chinese))
[14]李健,汪明武,徐鹏,等.基于云模型的围岩稳定性分类[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(1):83–87.(LI Jian,WANG Ming-wu,XU Peng,et al.Classification of stability of surrounding rock using cloud model[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2014,36(1):83–87.(in Chinese))
[15]胡石元,李德仁,刘耀林,等.体现主客观信息的土地定级因素综合集成赋权法研究[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2006,31(8):695–699.(HU Shi-yuan,LI De-ren,LIU Yao-lin,et al.Determination and integration of subjective weights and objective weights of land grading factors[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2006,31(8):695–699.(in Chinese))
[16]王坚强,刘淘.基于综合云的不确定语言多准则群决策方法[J].控制与决策,2012,27(8):1185–1190.(WANG Jian-qiang,LIU Tao.Uncertain linguistic multi-criteria group decision-making approach based on integrated cloud[J].Control and Decision,2012,27(8):1185–1190.(in Chinese))
[17]樊敏,刘耀林,吴艳娟,等.基于云模型的土地整理生态影响评价研究[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2008,33(9):986–989.(FAN Min,LIU Yao-lin,WU Yan-juan,et al.Ecological impact evaluation for land consolidation based on cloud model[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2008,33(9):986–989.(in Chinese))
[18]周剑,朱耀琴,柴旭东,等.基于云模型与证据理论的共识分析方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(12):2756–2763.(ZHOU Jian,ZHU Yao-qin,CHAI Xue-dong,et al.Approach for analyzing consensus based on cloud model and evidence theory[J].Systems Engineering–Theory&Practice,2012,32(12):2756–2763.(in Chinese))
[19]TURCHANINOV I A,MARKOV G A.Conditions of changing of extra-hard rock into weak rock under the influence of tectonic stresses of massifs[J].International Society for Rock Mechanics,1981:555–559.
[20]HOEK E,BROWN E T.Underground exavation in rock[M].London:Institute of Mining and Metallurgy,1980.
[21]KIDYBI?SKI A.Bursting liability indices of coal[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences and Geomechanics Abstracts,1981,18(4):295–304.
[22]刘禹,李德毅.正态云模型雾化性质统计分析[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2010,36(11):1320–1324.(LIU Yu,LI De-yi.Statistics on atomized feature of normal cloud model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2010,36(11):1320–1324.(in Chinese))
[23]周科平,雷涛,胡建华.深部金属矿山RS-TOPSIS岩爆预测模型及其应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2013,32(增刊2):3705–3711.(ZHOU Ke-ping,LEI Tao,HU Jian-hua.RS-TOPSIS model of rockburst prediction in deep metal mines and its application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2013,32(S2):3705–3711.(in Chinese))
[24]曾杰,张永兴,靳晓光.岩爆预测的最大熵最优相对隶属度方法[J].土木建筑与环境工程,2011,33(1):93–97.(ZENG Jie,ZHANG Yong-xing,JIN Xiao-guang.Prediction of rock burst using the method of optimal relative membership degree based on the maximum entropy principle[J].Journal of Civil,Architectural&Environmental Engineering,2011,33(1):93–97.(in Chinese))
[25]张乐文,张德永,邱道宏.基于粗糙集的可拓评判在岩爆预测中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(9):1461–1465.(ZHANG Le-wen,ZHANG De-yong,QIU Dao-hong.Application of extension evaluation method in rockburst prediction based on rough set theory[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(9):1461–1465.(in Chinese))
[26]沈进昌,杜树新,罗祎,等.基于云模型的模糊综合评价方法及应用[J].模糊系统与数学,2012,26(6):115–123.(SHEN Jin-chang,DU Shu-xin,LUO Yi,et al.Method and application research on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on cloud model[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,2012,26(6):115–123.(in Chinese))
[27]朱曼,文元桥,肖长诗,等.船舶通航适应性综合评价的云模型研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2013,35(7):63–68.(ZHU Man,WEN Yuan-qiao,XIAO Chang-shi,et al.Comprehensive evaluation of LNG Ship’s traffic adaptability based on cloud model[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2013,35(7):63–68.(in Chinese))
[28]文畅平.属性综合评价系统在岩爆发生和烈度分级中的应用[J].工程力学,2008,25(6):153–158.(WEN Chang-ping.Application of attribute synthetic evaluation system in prediction of possibility and classification of rockburst[J].Engineering Mechanics,2008,25(6):153–158.(in Chinese))
[29]徐琛,刘晓丽,王恩志,等.基于组合权重—理想点法的应变型岩爆五因素预测分级[J].岩土工程学报,2017,39(12):2245–2252.(XU Chen,LIU Xiao-li,WANG En-zhi,et al.Strain mode rockburst prediction and classification based on five-factors criterion and combined weight-ideal point method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2017,39(12):2245–2252.(in Chinese))
[30]张镜剑,傅冰骏.岩爆及其判据和防治[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(10):2034–2042.(ZHANG Jing-jian,FU Bing-jun.Rockburst and its criteria and control[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(10):2034–2042.(in Chinese))
[2]贾义鹏,吕庆,尚岳全,等.基于证据理论的岩爆预测[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(6):1079–1086.(JIA Yi-peng,LüQing,SHANG Yue-quan,et al.Rockburst prediction based on evidence theory[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2014,36(6):1079–1086.(in Chinese))
[3]白云飞,邓建,董陇军,等.深部硬岩岩爆预测的FDA模型及其应用[J].中南大学学报(自然科学版),2009,40(5):1417–1422.(BAI Yun-fei,DENG Jian,DONG Long-jun,et al.Fisher discriminant analysis model of rock burst prediction and its application in deep hard rock engineering[J].Journal of Central South University(Science and Technology),2009,40(5):1417–1422.(in Chinese))
[4]刘磊磊,张绍和,王晓密,等.变权靶心贴近度在岩爆烈度预测中的应用[J].爆炸与冲击,2015,35(1):43–50.(LIU Lei-lei,ZHANG Shao-he,WANG Xiao-mi,et al.Application of target approaching with variable weight in prediction of rockburst intensity[J].Explosion and Shock Waves,2015,35(1):43–50.(in Chinese))
[5]王元汉,李卧东,李启光,等.岩爆预测的模糊数学综合评判方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,1998,17(5):493–501.(WANG Yuan-han,LI Wo-dong,LI Qi-guang,et al.Method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluations for rockburst prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,1998,17(5):493–501.(in Chinese))
[6]王迎超,尚岳全,孙红月,等.基于熵权-理想点法的岩爆烈度预测模型及其应用[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(2):218–221.(WANG Ying-chao,SHANG Yue-quan,SUN Hong-yue,et al.Research and application of rockburst intensity prediction model based on entropy coefficient and ideal point method[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(2):218–221.(in Chinese))
[7]史秀志,周健,董蕾,等.未确知测度模型在岩爆烈度分级预测中的应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2010,29(增刊1):2720–2726.(SHI Xiu-zhi,ZHOU Jian,DONG Lei,et al.Application of unascertained measurement model to prediction of classification of rockburst intensity[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2010,29(S1):2720–2726.(in Chinese))
[8]熊孝波,桂国庆,许建聪,等.可拓工程方法在地下工程岩爆预测中的应用[J].解放军理工大学学报(自然科学版),2007,8(6):695–701.(XIONG Xiao-bo,DU Guo-qing,XU Jian-cong,et al.Application of extension method to prediction of rockburst of underground engineering[J].Journal of PLA University of Science and Technology(Natural Science Edition),2007,8(6):695–701.(in Chinese))
[9]胡建华,尚俊龙,周科平.岩爆烈度预测的改进物元可拓模型与实例分析[J].中国有色金属学报,2013,23(2):495–502.(HU Jian-hua,SHANG Jun-long,ZHOU Ke-ping.Improved matter-element extension model and its application to prediction of rockburst intensity[J].The Chinese Journal of Nonferrous Metals,2013,23(2):495–502.(in Chinese))
[10]周宣赤,白春华,王仲琦,等.粒子群投影寻踪算法在岩爆预测中的应用[J].上海交通大学学报,2012,46(12):1956–1961.(ZHOU Xuan-chi,BAI Chun-hua,WANG Zhong-qi,et al.Application of Projection Pursuit model and Particle Swarm Optimization in rock burst prediction[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2012,46(12):1956–1961.(in Chinese))
[11]裴启涛,李海波,刘亚群,等.基于组合赋权的岩爆倾向性预测灰评估模型及应用[J].岩土力学,2014,35(增刊1):49–56.(PEI Qi-tao,LI Hai-bo,LIU Ya-qun,et al.A grey evaluation model for predicting rockburst proneness based on combination weight and its application[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2014,35(S1):49–56.(in Chinese))
[12]王迎超,靖洪文,张强,等.基于正态云模型的深埋地下工程岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2015,36(4):1189–1194.(WANG Ying-chao,JING Hong-wen,ZHANG Qiang,et al.A normal cloud model-based study of grading prediction of rockburst intensity in deep underground engineering[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2015,36(4):1189–1194.(in Chinese))
[13]周科平,林允,胡建华,等.基于熵权–正态云模型的岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2016,37(增刊1):596–602.(ZHOU Ke-ping,LIN Yun,HU Jian-hua,et al.Grading prediction of rockburst intensity based on Entropy and normal cloud model[J].Rock and Soil Mechanics,2016,37(S1):596–602.(in Chinese))
[14]李健,汪明武,徐鹏,等.基于云模型的围岩稳定性分类[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(1):83–87.(LI Jian,WANG Ming-wu,XU Peng,et al.Classification of stability of surrounding rock using cloud model[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2014,36(1):83–87.(in Chinese))
[15]胡石元,李德仁,刘耀林,等.体现主客观信息的土地定级因素综合集成赋权法研究[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2006,31(8):695–699.(HU Shi-yuan,LI De-ren,LIU Yao-lin,et al.Determination and integration of subjective weights and objective weights of land grading factors[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2006,31(8):695–699.(in Chinese))
[16]王坚强,刘淘.基于综合云的不确定语言多准则群决策方法[J].控制与决策,2012,27(8):1185–1190.(WANG Jian-qiang,LIU Tao.Uncertain linguistic multi-criteria group decision-making approach based on integrated cloud[J].Control and Decision,2012,27(8):1185–1190.(in Chinese))
[17]樊敏,刘耀林,吴艳娟,等.基于云模型的土地整理生态影响评价研究[J].武汉大学学报(信息科学版),2008,33(9):986–989.(FAN Min,LIU Yao-lin,WU Yan-juan,et al.Ecological impact evaluation for land consolidation based on cloud model[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2008,33(9):986–989.(in Chinese))
[18]周剑,朱耀琴,柴旭东,等.基于云模型与证据理论的共识分析方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(12):2756–2763.(ZHOU Jian,ZHU Yao-qin,CHAI Xue-dong,et al.Approach for analyzing consensus based on cloud model and evidence theory[J].Systems Engineering–Theory&Practice,2012,32(12):2756–2763.(in Chinese))
[19]TURCHANINOV I A,MARKOV G A.Conditions of changing of extra-hard rock into weak rock under the influence of tectonic stresses of massifs[J].International Society for Rock Mechanics,1981:555–559.
[20]HOEK E,BROWN E T.Underground exavation in rock[M].London:Institute of Mining and Metallurgy,1980.
[21]KIDYBI?SKI A.Bursting liability indices of coal[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences and Geomechanics Abstracts,1981,18(4):295–304.
[22]刘禹,李德毅.正态云模型雾化性质统计分析[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2010,36(11):1320–1324.(LIU Yu,LI De-yi.Statistics on atomized feature of normal cloud model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2010,36(11):1320–1324.(in Chinese))
[23]周科平,雷涛,胡建华.深部金属矿山RS-TOPSIS岩爆预测模型及其应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2013,32(增刊2):3705–3711.(ZHOU Ke-ping,LEI Tao,HU Jian-hua.RS-TOPSIS model of rockburst prediction in deep metal mines and its application[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2013,32(S2):3705–3711.(in Chinese))
[24]曾杰,张永兴,靳晓光.岩爆预测的最大熵最优相对隶属度方法[J].土木建筑与环境工程,2011,33(1):93–97.(ZENG Jie,ZHANG Yong-xing,JIN Xiao-guang.Prediction of rock burst using the method of optimal relative membership degree based on the maximum entropy principle[J].Journal of Civil,Architectural&Environmental Engineering,2011,33(1):93–97.(in Chinese))
[25]张乐文,张德永,邱道宏.基于粗糙集的可拓评判在岩爆预测中的应用[J].煤炭学报,2010,35(9):1461–1465.(ZHANG Le-wen,ZHANG De-yong,QIU Dao-hong.Application of extension evaluation method in rockburst prediction based on rough set theory[J].Journal of China Coal Society,2010,35(9):1461–1465.(in Chinese))
[26]沈进昌,杜树新,罗祎,等.基于云模型的模糊综合评价方法及应用[J].模糊系统与数学,2012,26(6):115–123.(SHEN Jin-chang,DU Shu-xin,LUO Yi,et al.Method and application research on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on cloud model[J].Fuzzy Systems and Mathematics,2012,26(6):115–123.(in Chinese))
[27]朱曼,文元桥,肖长诗,等.船舶通航适应性综合评价的云模型研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2013,35(7):63–68.(ZHU Man,WEN Yuan-qiao,XIAO Chang-shi,et al.Comprehensive evaluation of LNG Ship’s traffic adaptability based on cloud model[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology,2013,35(7):63–68.(in Chinese))
[28]文畅平.属性综合评价系统在岩爆发生和烈度分级中的应用[J].工程力学,2008,25(6):153–158.(WEN Chang-ping.Application of attribute synthetic evaluation system in prediction of possibility and classification of rockburst[J].Engineering Mechanics,2008,25(6):153–158.(in Chinese))
[29]徐琛,刘晓丽,王恩志,等.基于组合权重—理想点法的应变型岩爆五因素预测分级[J].岩土工程学报,2017,39(12):2245–2252.(XU Chen,LIU Xiao-li,WANG En-zhi,et al.Strain mode rockburst prediction and classification based on five-factors criterion and combined weight-ideal point method[J].Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering,2017,39(12):2245–2252.(in Chinese))
[30]张镜剑,傅冰骏.岩爆及其判据和防治[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(10):2034–2042.(ZHANG Jing-jian,FU Bing-jun.Rockburst and its criteria and control[J].Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering,2008,27(10):2034–2042.(in Chinese))