种麦农户行为选择:来自价格、政策和非农就业的综合响应检验
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摘要
基于2003-2011年全国农村固定观察点数据,选用扩展Nerlove模型及系统GMM估计方法,引入市场化政策和非农就业水平等变量构建农户小麦动态供给反应模型,探究农户粮食种植决策对价格和非价格因素的反应程度。研究发现:①无论短期还是长期,农户小麦种植对价格始终保持较高的敏感程度。②非农就业在短期内对农户小麦种植直接影响结果不显著,但间接提高了农户对小麦生产成本的敏感程度,这意味着非农就业水平的提高使得生产成本对小麦的负面减产效应显著增加。③市场化政策始终是影响粮食市场价格变动及农户粮食种植决策的重要因素。因此,建议完善对粮食生产的补贴制度,通过杠杆调节冲破生产成本对粮食生产的"桎梏",同时确定合理的粮食最低收购价水平,科学制定调整幅度,引导农户合理调整种植结构。
Based on the data of rural fixed observation points from 2003 to 2011 and employment of the extended Nerlove model and SYSTEM-GMM estimation method,this paper introduces variables of grain marketization policy and non-agricultural employment level to construct a dynamic farmers' supply response model.And the results of empirical analysis explore the extent to which farmers' wheat planting decisions respond to price and non-price factors and show that:(1)Whether in the short-term or long-term,farmers' wheat planting decision has always been sensitive to the price.(2)The direct impact of non-agricultural employment on farmers' wheat acreage is not very significant in the short term,but it indirectly increases the sensitivity of farmers to wheat production costs,which means that the growth in the level of non-agricultural employment increases the negative production-reducing effect of production costs on wheat.(3)Marketization policy plays a persistently important role in affecting farmers' wheat planting.This paper proposes to improve the subsidy policy for grain production,to break down the"clam"of production costs through leverage adjustment,to determine the reasonable minimum purchase price level,to scientifically formulate adjustment ranges,and to guide farmers to rationally adjust the planting structure.
Based on the data of rural fixed observation points from 2003 to 2011 and employment of the extended Nerlove model and SYSTEM-GMM estimation method,this paper introduces variables of grain marketization policy and non-agricultural employment level to construct a dynamic farmers' supply response model.And the results of empirical analysis explore the extent to which farmers' wheat planting decisions respond to price and non-price factors and show that:(1)Whether in the short-term or long-term,farmers' wheat planting decision has always been sensitive to the price.(2)The direct impact of non-agricultural employment on farmers' wheat acreage is not very significant in the short term,but it indirectly increases the sensitivity of farmers to wheat production costs,which means that the growth in the level of non-agricultural employment increases the negative production-reducing effect of production costs on wheat.(3)Marketization policy plays a persistently important role in affecting farmers' wheat planting.This paper proposes to improve the subsidy policy for grain production,to break down the"clam"of production costs through leverage adjustment,to determine the reasonable minimum purchase price level,to scientifically formulate adjustment ranges,and to guide farmers to rationally adjust the planting structure.
引文
[1] HUQ A,ARSHAD F.Supply response of potato in Bangladesh:a vector error correction approach[J].Journal of applied sciences,2010,10(11):895-902.
[2] OREFI A,AKANDE R O,VICTORIA A O.Acreage response of soybeans to price in Nigeria[J].European journal of physical and agricultural sciences,2015(3):22-31.
[3] ULLAH R,ALI S,SAFI S Q,et al.Supply response analysis of wheat growers in district Peshawar:Pakistan[J].International journal of latest trends in agriculture and food sciences,2012(2):33-38.
[4] 刘宏曼,郭鉴硕.基于Nerlove模型的我国大豆供给反应实证分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):44-50.
[5] MUTH J F.Rational expectations and the theory of price movements[J].Econometrica,1961,29(3):315-335.
[6] NERLOVE M.Estimates of the elasticities of supply of selected agricultural commodities[J].American journal of agricultural economics,1956,38(2):496-509.
[7] WICKENS M R,GREENFIELD J N.The econometrics of agricultural supply:an application to the world coffee market[J].The review of economics and statistics,1973,55(4):433-440.
[8] ANTHONY N R,KONSTANTINOS S S.Modeling beef supply response and price volatility under CAP reforms:the case of Greece[J].Food policy,2010,35(2):163-174.
[9] MAIADUA U S,SUHASIN K,JAINUDDIN S M,et al.Acreage response of sorghum to price and non-price factors in Nigeria:an evidence from nerlove adjustment model[J].Sher-r-Kashmir university of agricultural science and technology journal of research,2017,19(1):115-120.
[10] 林欣,肖海峰.我国羊肉价格波动对羊肉供给的影响研究——基于Nerlove模型的实证分析[J].新疆农垦经济,2018(12):22-26.
[11] 钟甫宁,胡雪梅.中国棉农棉花播种面积决策的经济学分析[J].中国农村经济,2008(6):39-45.
[12] 吕开宇,俞冰心,邢鹂.新阶段的粮农生产决策行为分析——粮价上涨对非贫困和贫困种植户的影响[J].中国农村经济,2013(9):31-43.
[13] 范垄基,穆月英,付文革,等.基于Nerlove模型的我国不同粮食作物的供给反应[J].农业技术经济,2012(12):4-11.
[14] 陈永福.中国食物供求与预测[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2004.
[15] 马文杰,冯中朝.基于Nerlove模型的中国小麦供给反应研究[J].技术经济,2009,28(3):50-52.
[16] 刘俊杰,周应恒.我国小麦供给反应研究——基于小麦主产省的实证[J].农业技术经济,2011(12):40-45.
[17] BRAULKE M.A note on the Nerlove model of agricultural supply response[J].International economic review,1982,23(1):241-244.
[18] 钱文荣,王大哲.如何稳定我国玉米供给——基于省际动态面板数据的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2015(1):22-32.
[19] GAFAR J.The supply response for sugar cane in Trinidad and Tobago:some preliminary results[J].Applied economics,1987(19):1221-1231.
[20] ROZELLE S,TAYLOR J E,BAUW A D.Migration,remittances,and agricultural productivity in China[J].Journal of economic literature,1999(2):287-291.
[21] 钱文荣,郑黎义.劳动力外出务工对农户农业生产的影响——研究现状与展望[J].中国农村观察,2011(1):31-38.
[22] 林坚,李德洗.非农就业与粮食生产:替代抑或互补——基于粮食主产区农户视角的分析[J].中国农村经济,2013(9):54-62.
[23] 刘克春.粮食生产补贴政策对农户粮食种植决策行为的影响与作用机理分析——以江西省为例[J].中国农村经济,2010(2):12-21.
[24] 周应恒,赵文张,晓敏.近期中国主要农业国内支持政策评估[J].农业经济问题,2009,30(5):4-11.
[25] 马丁丑,陈文梅.粮食托收政策改革对主要粮食作物种植结构影响研究[J].价格理论与实践,2018(8):151-154.
[26] 方鸿.中国粮食最低收购价合理确定机制研究[J].经济与管理,2009,23(4):20-25.
[27] 李丽,朱璐璐.粮食最低收购价和临时收储政策对农民生产积极性的影响研究——基于Nerlove模型的实证分析[J].中国物价,2018(6):30-33.
① 数据来源:国家统计局。
(1)该研究部分数据来自中国农业大学国家农业农村发展研究院。
(2)变量设置可能带来内生性问题将在下文中的估计方法部分进行分析解决。
(3)对数变换处理后各变量通过检验,不存在多重共线性。
(4)国务院2004年发布《国务院关于进一步深化粮食流通体制改革的意见》(国发[2004]17号)。
(5)2018年11月15日,国家发改委印发《关于公布2019年小麦最低收购价格的通知》,公布2019年生产的小麦(三等)最低收购价为1.12元/斤;表2列出了2004年最低收购价政策执行以来小麦最低收购价格调整情况。为分析政策实施前后和最低收购价调整前后种麦农户生产行为变化,下文中实证部分用到的微观农户数据为2003-2011年。
[2] OREFI A,AKANDE R O,VICTORIA A O.Acreage response of soybeans to price in Nigeria[J].European journal of physical and agricultural sciences,2015(3):22-31.
[3] ULLAH R,ALI S,SAFI S Q,et al.Supply response analysis of wheat growers in district Peshawar:Pakistan[J].International journal of latest trends in agriculture and food sciences,2012(2):33-38.
[4] 刘宏曼,郭鉴硕.基于Nerlove模型的我国大豆供给反应实证分析[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(6):44-50.
[5] MUTH J F.Rational expectations and the theory of price movements[J].Econometrica,1961,29(3):315-335.
[6] NERLOVE M.Estimates of the elasticities of supply of selected agricultural commodities[J].American journal of agricultural economics,1956,38(2):496-509.
[7] WICKENS M R,GREENFIELD J N.The econometrics of agricultural supply:an application to the world coffee market[J].The review of economics and statistics,1973,55(4):433-440.
[8] ANTHONY N R,KONSTANTINOS S S.Modeling beef supply response and price volatility under CAP reforms:the case of Greece[J].Food policy,2010,35(2):163-174.
[9] MAIADUA U S,SUHASIN K,JAINUDDIN S M,et al.Acreage response of sorghum to price and non-price factors in Nigeria:an evidence from nerlove adjustment model[J].Sher-r-Kashmir university of agricultural science and technology journal of research,2017,19(1):115-120.
[10] 林欣,肖海峰.我国羊肉价格波动对羊肉供给的影响研究——基于Nerlove模型的实证分析[J].新疆农垦经济,2018(12):22-26.
[11] 钟甫宁,胡雪梅.中国棉农棉花播种面积决策的经济学分析[J].中国农村经济,2008(6):39-45.
[12] 吕开宇,俞冰心,邢鹂.新阶段的粮农生产决策行为分析——粮价上涨对非贫困和贫困种植户的影响[J].中国农村经济,2013(9):31-43.
[13] 范垄基,穆月英,付文革,等.基于Nerlove模型的我国不同粮食作物的供给反应[J].农业技术经济,2012(12):4-11.
[14] 陈永福.中国食物供求与预测[M].北京:中国农业出版社,2004.
[15] 马文杰,冯中朝.基于Nerlove模型的中国小麦供给反应研究[J].技术经济,2009,28(3):50-52.
[16] 刘俊杰,周应恒.我国小麦供给反应研究——基于小麦主产省的实证[J].农业技术经济,2011(12):40-45.
[17] BRAULKE M.A note on the Nerlove model of agricultural supply response[J].International economic review,1982,23(1):241-244.
[18] 钱文荣,王大哲.如何稳定我国玉米供给——基于省际动态面板数据的实证分析[J].农业技术经济,2015(1):22-32.
[19] GAFAR J.The supply response for sugar cane in Trinidad and Tobago:some preliminary results[J].Applied economics,1987(19):1221-1231.
[20] ROZELLE S,TAYLOR J E,BAUW A D.Migration,remittances,and agricultural productivity in China[J].Journal of economic literature,1999(2):287-291.
[21] 钱文荣,郑黎义.劳动力外出务工对农户农业生产的影响——研究现状与展望[J].中国农村观察,2011(1):31-38.
[22] 林坚,李德洗.非农就业与粮食生产:替代抑或互补——基于粮食主产区农户视角的分析[J].中国农村经济,2013(9):54-62.
[23] 刘克春.粮食生产补贴政策对农户粮食种植决策行为的影响与作用机理分析——以江西省为例[J].中国农村经济,2010(2):12-21.
[24] 周应恒,赵文张,晓敏.近期中国主要农业国内支持政策评估[J].农业经济问题,2009,30(5):4-11.
[25] 马丁丑,陈文梅.粮食托收政策改革对主要粮食作物种植结构影响研究[J].价格理论与实践,2018(8):151-154.
[26] 方鸿.中国粮食最低收购价合理确定机制研究[J].经济与管理,2009,23(4):20-25.
[27] 李丽,朱璐璐.粮食最低收购价和临时收储政策对农民生产积极性的影响研究——基于Nerlove模型的实证分析[J].中国物价,2018(6):30-33.
① 数据来源:国家统计局。
(1)该研究部分数据来自中国农业大学国家农业农村发展研究院。
(2)变量设置可能带来内生性问题将在下文中的估计方法部分进行分析解决。
(3)对数变换处理后各变量通过检验,不存在多重共线性。
(4)国务院2004年发布《国务院关于进一步深化粮食流通体制改革的意见》(国发[2004]17号)。
(5)2018年11月15日,国家发改委印发《关于公布2019年小麦最低收购价格的通知》,公布2019年生产的小麦(三等)最低收购价为1.12元/斤;表2列出了2004年最低收购价政策执行以来小麦最低收购价格调整情况。为分析政策实施前后和最低收购价调整前后种麦农户生产行为变化,下文中实证部分用到的微观农户数据为2003-2011年。